It’s a very interesting analysis. Thank you.
First, Germany in 1939 was hardly inexperienced, it was only two decades from the end of the WW1. They had kept the capabilities and military education.
Second, it’s impossible to defeat a continental power in a naval campaign. If you want to defeat China, you will have to destroy their commanding centers and any threat to the CCP/PLA command lines means a nuclear conflict. Impossible! That’s why I am not so much worried about the current situation with Taiwan.