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BritTim

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Posts posted by BritTim

  1. 1 hour ago, johnmell said:

    Hopefully when neighbour countries borders are open, they can distinguish between people with foreign passports who havent travelled from Europe, etc. If international flights are still banned in those countries and Thailand, it would be impossible to come from there.

    While optimistic to think this might occur as early as July/August, there is a possible circumstance that might make crossing one or more land borders relatively painless. Should, say, Thailand and Laos have similar border controls, this might allow a bubble between the two countries where regular controls on entry are waived in favour of more liberal ones. I do not think immigration at land crossings are likely to be asked to verify the travel history of each arrival to see if they should be allowed to enter. Either travelling from the origin country to Thailand will be considered "safe" so far as Covid-19 is concerned, or default conditions (probably onerous) will be enforced.

  2. 3 hours ago, johnch99 said:

    Thai airways are cancelling all flights for July so I would guess it is a good bet they are going to extend the closure of the airports

    That is one possible inference. More likely, in my view, they anticipate that the limitations on those allowed to enter Thailand will ensure that there would be few passengers for any flights that they were to schedule. Some airlines will consider it worthwhile to have long haul flights that stop in Thailand on their way to other, more attractive, destinations (depending on any conditions imposed on those only transferring in Thai airports). I can well believe that there would be few possible profitable routes for Thai Airways whose flights would invariably originate or terminate in Thailand.

  3. 3 hours ago, drbeach said:

    Well, for starters, the UK said it will review the quarantine after 3 weeks. I have no idea why they are only introducing it this late...

    The logic is that the UK has belatedly decided on a virus elimination strategy. They are trying to introduce a proper testing and contact tracing system (like that used in countries like New Zealand) for the first time. Virus elimination is not feasible without strong controls at the border. It remains to be seen whether the UK will be capable of the rapid testing and rapid contact tracing in a sustained effort over two months that is needed. The UK has several times changed its strategy already, and I have no difficulty imagining them abandoning the latest virus elimination strategy when they discover that it is hard.

    • Like 1
  4. 5 hours ago, jonga80 said:

    Ok, so we will see in july. In Europe they are opening borders, countries like Italy, France or Spain which had thousands and thousands covid19 cases. I know Asia is very different, but in some countries I don't see any reason to continue with high travel restrictions. Vietnam should be one of the first opening borders because they contained very well the virus. 

    Countries like Vietnam, that have eliminated the virus within their own borders, have a strong motivation to maintain strong border controls so their virus free status is maintained. In countries with uncontrolled community virus transmission, allowing a few infected foreigners into the country really does not matter. It is not going to meaningfully worsen an already bad situation.

  5. 2 hours ago, cubism001 said:

    The CAAT page still says no flights in until June 30th.  Has anyone heard any different?  Please provide a link so I can study the situation to get back in.  Thanks.

    The latest situation is that those who can provide a strong justification for being allowed to return should contact the Thai embassy. Possibly, you might be authorised to take a repatriation flight along with Thai nationals. If your return is allowed, you will be subject to mandatory quarantine for 14 days. The embassy will inform you of other requirements.

     

    If you hope to jump on a flight, expecting to enter Thailand visa exempt, I suspect you will have a long wait. 

  6. 4 hours ago, DrJack54 said:
    4 hours ago, BritTim said:

    Very likely, some offices are going to have their own more or less irrational interpretation of the rules.

    Stop talk riddles. Does OP need exit post amnesty. Hopefully will be extended.

    If not he needs exit Thailand

    I am not being deliberately obtuse. No one can predict with certainty what is going to happen in Thailand after July 31st. I specifically restricted my comments to those able to apply for long term extensions (and stressed that, even there, some offices might deviate from what is expected). As for whether people will be able to travel to nearby countries, get fresh multiple entry Non O visas, and return (with or without quarantine) I have absolutely no idea. 

    • Like 2
  7. If you only took on students located outside Thailand, you would be operating as a digital nomad. While not strictly legal, this is tolerated and (unless policies change) you can do this safely without a work permit. However, as soon as a single student is inside Thailand, you are no longer viewed as a digital nomad, and being without a work permit in such a situation would be risky. As @ubonjoe has written, you must have a Thai employer before you can get a work permit.

  8. 2 hours ago, justaphase said:

    Don't worry mate..wait and see..I'm in the same boat. except my visa expired on 25th March..1 day before said amnesty, but it was too busy at CW so I just thought mai pen rai.

    If you mean your permission to stay expired March 25th, I would be more than a little worried in your situation. The automatic extension is for people who were legally in Thailand as of March 26th. If, however, you extended your permission to stay (perhaps paying a small overstay fine) that made you legal again, then you have nothing to worry about.

  9. 4 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

    Absolutely nothing, the free government hospitals are really good.

    In some parts of the country, especially the large cities, that is true. The government health care in some areas is still pretty weak. Also, at the better government hospitals, the quality of the treatment is good, but you can easily wait six hours before getting to see the doctor. There is a reason why Thai companies tend to provide basic health insurance for their staff.

     

    The cost of health insurance depends on a number of factors, notably age, the level of coverage desired and deductibles.

    • Like 1
  10. 11 minutes ago, Sambotte said:

    Any clue about the "not-used" normal 30 days extension of a exemption at arrival ?

    Will it be possible ? Or considered canceled by the covid extensions ?

     

    I arrived 1 month before the first covid extension... So i did not used the 30 days extension...

    I have opinions on how regular extensions logically ought to be treated, which I can tell from reading the forum are not the consensus view. I base my opinion on the assumption that the automatic extension is a grace period intended

    1. to avoid people needing to attend immigration while this risks infection with Covid-19, but allow them to apply for their regular long term extensions when safe to do so; and
    2. to cater for many foreigners who cannot easily leave Thailand, but do not qualify for regular extensions that would allow them to stay, allowing them a grace period to leave.

    I believe that, logically, you ought to be able to apply for a regular extension at any time, but it will take effect from the expiry of your last regular permission to stay.

     

    Under my interpretation, applying for a 30-day extension would be pointless because the extension would expire before the end of the grace period you are allowed to stay without requesting any extension. That would be true even if you applied on July 31st, where a 30-day extension of your original permission to stay would be expiring before today's date. I think, however, a denied extension with seven days to leave the country should probably be allowed.

     

    Applying for a one-year extension would make perfect sense, and ought to be permitted at any time up until July 31st, but with the extension running from when your permission to stay expired.

     

    Almost no one else seems to think this is the way things work, so I am likely wrong. That is especially the case as I suspect most immigration officials think the same way as those on this board. Thus, I simply do not know how, in practice, requests for regular extensions will be handled when you apply just before July 31st.

  11. 1 hour ago, Common said:

    I understand this.  The extension to July 31st is something I do qualify for.

     

    My question is if I were to use this letter, could it push me out to August 30th?

    When would you be planning to use the letter? If you use it now, and they give you a 30-day extension to late June/early July, it will just be a waste of time and 1,900 baht (I think you would still be OK until July 31 though). If you use it around July 31st, I assume the letter would be out of date.

    • Like 1
  12. 30 minutes ago, Common said:

    I have a letter from my embassy that they said would help me to extend my visa by 30 days, given the current situation.  The letter does not specify 30 days exactly; it only states that they do not object to me applying for visa extensions as a result of "disruptions to travel" caused by the pandemic.

     

    Would this extension apply to my visa's date of expiry?  Or could it possibly apply to the extended date of July 31st?

     

    A bit too hopeful, I know.

    Assuming you were legally in Thailand as of March 28th 2020, there is no need to visit immigration to request an extension. You are automatically extended until 31st July 2020. No stamp in your passport is needed to prove your right to the extension.

  13. As you say, this is a complex situation. Under normal circumstances, once your employment ends, your extended permission to stay based on your employment is no longer valid. Although very unfair in your case, I do not think you can legally use your reentry permit to return. Perhaps when individual scrutiny (before authorising return by those with work extensions) is relaxed, you could risk trying to briefly return anyway. This would qualify as illegal entry, but you are unlikely to be caught. However, I hope other options will open up for you to make a short trip to wind up your affairs. Good luck!

  14. The requirements will be announced in due course. It is really impossible to predict what they might be. Most likely, tourist visas will not be issued at all for some time, though there may be exceptions for a few countries that have eliminated the virus, most likely with the appropriate visas only being issued in home country, and only for those travelling as part of tour groups). It is possible that the Thai government may see a need to provide a solution to close family members of Thais, but I fear they will expect people to extend in country rather than providing easy Non O visas.

    • Like 1
    • Confused 1
  15. 5 hours ago, Olmate said:
    5 hours ago, Bvor said:

    australia just announced proposal 1 july allow travel between oz and nz and then 1/9 travel between oz and other "safe" countries. all depending on "safe" and future outbreaks. thailand/oz seems will be deemed "safe" atm, then of course question re prices and for oz the thai airways rehab/oz direct flights situation (other airlines have stopover flights) 

    i'm thinking thailand trip dec - have to check my condo in pattaya which agent cannot find takers to rent or buy in current scenerio and even before (was warned never buy in thailand)     

    Link to the that July 1, doubt it?

    New Zealand (like Taiwan and possibly Vietnam) has already eliminated Covid-19 among the general population. Allowing free travel between Australia and New Zealand starting July 1st might be quite feasible as long as Australia can stamp out the small degree of community transmission that is still occurring in a couple of states (notably Victoria).

     

    It is too early to say if Thailand might be regarded as a safe (virus eliminated) country in September. If official data is to be believed, there is some cause for optimism.

  16. 1 hour ago, JackThompson said:

    In the USA, any death attributed to COVID nets the hospital a pile of money.  Mortiticans are reporting many never-tested are being listed as covid-deaths, to maximize those returns.

     

    1 hour ago, JackThompson said:

    I hope they are testing those cardiac-arrest patients, and classifying them as to whether their heart-attacks - which are a leading cause of death w/o covid - were truly due to covid.

    It would be far better if the infrastructure was in place to test all those who die at home for Covid-19. In the US, this almost never happens. As far as the conspiracy theory goes that doctors are conspiring with their hospitals to commit fraud, I do not believe it. Not a single case has been prosecuted. Yes, as with deaths at home, there has been a problem of many deaths in US hospitals having to be diagnosed based on symptoms rather then tests. That does not mean those dying of traffic accidents are being reported on their death certificates as victims of Covid-19.

  17. 7 hours ago, JackThompson said:

    For this particular virus, the key is preventing those who are vulnerable from contacting the pathogen.  In this case, we have known since early April who is at risk, and the data just gets clearer.  Here is a chart from the USA, where between ~40% and ~55% of deaths occurred in long-term care facilities (depending on which study - this one 42%) - many of them in hospice (< 6 months expected time to live):

    How do people in the vulnerable populations become infected? Most often, it is because family and friends (especially those living in the same household) infect them. It is a pipe dream to believe that you can allow the virus to spread uncontrolled among younger people without comorbidities and still prevent their family and friends from becoming infected.

     

    As for the statistics from the US, in almost all cases, they omit deaths that occur in the home. Unfortunately, the US does not report overall death rates from all causes on a week-to-week basis. In the UK, where such data is reported, examination of the figures shows that just considering deaths in hospitals and care homes grossly underestimates the total death toll from Covid-19. The biggest reason is believed to be many more cardiac arrests at home (induced by the blood clots that are a characteristic of coronavirus infection). Anecdotal reports from first responders indicate a similar pattern in the US.

     

    Unless you are going to lock away everyone over the age of 60 plus those with underlying health conditions in a government isolation facility for months or years, forbidding visits by family and friends, you cannot protect vulnerable populations when there is a high infection rate in the general population. Probably, you would also need to isolate the workers in those isolation facilities.

     

    Look at how countries like Taiwan and New Zealand have dealt with the outbreak. New Zealand acted early, had a strict shutdown for a month (combined with a test, trace, isolate, treat capability) and has totally eliminated community transmission. With the exception on an almost total ban on foreigners entering the country, and quarantine for returning nationals, there remain few restrictions, for instance:

    • maximum gathering sizes of 100;
    • in bars you must remain in your own social group and remain seated (no mingling) plus there is a dedicated server for each table.

    Further loosening is expected in New Zealand in June, probably including free movement between New Zealand and Australia (where the virus is also under control).

     

    Do not assume that you can convince people to go out and get themselves infected just because they are allowed to do so. Many will choose to protect themselves even if there is no lockdown. Limiting economic damage is best ensured by eliminating the virus, and convincing your people that it is safe for them to live more or less normally.

     

    Go early and go hard to prevent losing control is the key that has allowed some countries to successfully control Covid-19 with minimum casualties and impact on the economy.

    • Like 1
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