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todlad

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About todlad

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  1. You set me a challenge and I accepted it and told you how I would do it. I am not a wild guess kind of person and since the true data set on which I want to base my forecast is so small, one extra data point could make a big difference. So, here is my suggestion, I suppose I should call it a forecast, for tomorrow, Friday: 1776 new cases overnight from Today, Thursday, to Friday, 15th - 16th April. In another message you suggest we should make a five day guess. Given everything I have said and given the techniques I have used to arrive at my single point forecast, I wou
  2. You've learned something about my view of a forecast: so that's something. You are wrong about my insistence on considering the DDC report and so on: I pointed out that your wild guess was a stab in the dark and no more and for greater credibility you should take a longer term view with more than just a few numbers and a run rate in mind. Still, I cannot argue that 1300 out of 1335 turned out well and even though I have already said that I never make guesses or forecasts of this nature, I will accept your challenge and I will provide an estimate of Friday's announcement
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