friendofthai

"Globally we are entering a very fragile state: is Asia ready?" I would rather say it this way:"Western countries are entering a very fragile state: is Asia ready to fight for the West?" And the answer should be: "And what about this face in the mirror? Why does not he go and fight for the West in the Ukraine? Why does he want Asia to fight for him instead?"

There is a huge difference between Russian expats and the Western ones. If you look at the results of the elections, for example, to the Russian State Duma, you will see that anti-Russian pro-American marginal parties have been winning the elections among Russian expats in Thailand for decades. Therefore, you can form a certain opinion about what kind of people they are. They are very similar to Assange/Snowden supporters in the USA.

We will see a lot of efforts to involve neutral countries into the Ukrainian conflict. Will the West benefit from this? Yes, it will. But what about ordinary expats? I am sure they would prefer to enjoy peace and silence of a neutral country.

Bucha is raising of the stakes in the game. This will allow Vlad to double the number of soldiers in this war. Russian TV is preparing grounds for this.

China will be the winner.

I agree with you. The factor of elites can protect only to a certain degree. It does not guarantee 100% protection. That is why Western countries are increasing their aid to Ukraine very carefully. At first there were only minor deliveries for basic needs. Gradually, the volume, quality (and lethality) of deliveries increases. I am sure that 1-2 months later they will try to deliver medium-range missiles reaching Moscow.

The resistance of the West stems from the Russian inability to use nuclear weapons now. So the West behaves as if Russia did not have nuclear weapons. As If Russia were Iraq or Lybia. This inability will persist for several more months for this reason:

400k are not necessary to be transferred from the abroad to meet the requirements, right?

Many people have noticed that the official goals of the Special Mission are complete nonsense. Officially, Russia would like to perform "denacification" of the Ukraine and then go back quickly. Is it possible? Of course not. Because even if you "denacify" the Ukraine, Zelenskyy will cancel everything 2-3 months later. And what`s next? Repeat the Special mission every 2-3 months and pay thousands of people lives for it?

You are completely right. Russia can only get about half a million as an invader in any war. Vlad knows it very well. So there are only 2 options: 1) Russia will lose this war 2) Vlad will transform this war`s ideology from "invasion" into the Great Patriotic War to re-establish the Soviet Union.

This informational battle is in progress. Russia wants revenge: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-asks-un-security-council-discuss-bucha-provocation-2022-04-03/

You are right. Russian TV is already working on it. It is explaining that we cannot lose this war because Russia will be completely destroyed in this case.

1 or 2 years ago we all were in such a situation. But now it has become very easy to get a jab. Maybe you still think that it is too hard to buy vaccine. I paid 3300 baht in the Thaksin Hospital Suratthani. No queues, no waiting, everything finished in 10 minutes for the first time. Another 10 minutes 1 month later and you have a QR code and freedom of travel.

How many? From ~1500 (from Russian sources) to ~15000(from Ukrainian sources) And how many soldiers can Vlad mobiliZe? About 30 million soldiers (full mobiliZation). 15000 of 30 million is about 0.05%. This will not stop the true eastern leader.