Mutation of SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) and probable recombination with SARS-COV-1 / MERS
One of the likely mutations in the next decade with variants, or strains of the type SARS-COV-1 or MERS could cause an unprecedented biological catastrophe
SARS-COV-2, which appeared in 2019, has SARS-COV-1 and MERS as a "close cousin", with a genetic proximity of the order of more than 80%, would have great capacities to be able to recombine with others SARS-like coronavirus, as described.
The main mechanism of coronaviruses is the ability to be able to recombine very easily, as with influenza viruses which recombine very easily and create new strains, hence the need to create new vaccines each year.
The big difference between SARS-COV-2 and SARS-COV-1 and MERS is the death rates.
The death rate from COVID-19 is around 2 to 5%
The death rate from SARS-COV-1 & MERS, is around 20-40 %
The difference is the contagion rate, we were lucky to be able to control the old coronaviruses because of their low contagious rate.
The problem is that if SARS-COV-2 were to mutate, recombine with a coronavirus with a very high death rate, while keeping a very high rate of contagion, could cause a collapse, and an unprecedented health disaster in the world, which will cause military confinement, even in the most democratic countries and a catastrophic crisis.
