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About SuperTed

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  1. Tourism is more than 12% of Thai GDP. How much, one cannot say with any certainty. And a good share of that GDP goes to foreign owners of tourism businesses who hide behind Thai strawmen. That is especially true regarding Chinese tourists. So we don't know how big a role the arrivals of non-Thais to the Kingdom plays in the real economy. But we do know this - for any country, a 2% or 3% contraction of the economy is an absolute disaster, typically with political consequences. The HiSo can take it on the chin for a few years, but the 9,000-baht-a-month workers of Thailand cannot take it at all. For any amount of time. This either results in a political movement threatening the current national order, perhaps leading to the return of martial law. Or the current regime desperately accepting Chinese development projects to stimulate domestic growth, perhaps leading to TH becoming another Chinese protectorate, along the lines of Cambodia and Laos. It's all bad news for Thai people, and not what they, or anyone else, deserve.
  2. I am happy to report the case is now closed. Verdict: Murder by Suicide Culprit: Pattaya Motive: Loss of face/Money Dispute/Stilted Lover/Bankruptcy Proposed Sentence: One year without Chinese tourists Maximum Sentence if Culprit Rejects the Verdict and Sentence: One year of Chinese tourists with Coronavirus
  3. Guys - TH is ranked 6th in the world for pandemic preparedness by the WHO. CFO. I am in HH, and am 100% certain that local hospitals are reporting suspected cases and submitting for testing. Assume the rest of the country is the same. We are as reliant on tourism and as disconnected from BKK govt as any other destination. Virus incubation is typically 5-6 days. 14 days is the last 0.5% of cases. That means we have been through 3.5 infection cycles since sick PRC tourists started arriving for CNY. If nCoV was going to explode in TH, it would have done so already. It doesn't mean we are without risk. But it does mean things are looking good. Compare TH to Princess Cruise, and how fast the virus grew there.
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