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vinny41

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Everything posted by vinny41

  1. Claim One estimate of the “economic cost” of Brexit, £130 billion, now exceeds what we’ve paid in to the EU over 47 years. Conclusion There’s no definitive figure for the economic impact of Brexit. The analysis this is based on estimates the UK’s GDP is £130 billion lower in 2019 than it would have been had it followed pre-EU referendum trends. Between 1973 and 2018 the UK’s net contribution to the EU was £216 billion in real terms. Lots of Full Fact readers have asked us to check a number of posts on social media which have claimed that “the economic cost of Brexit now exceeds what we’ve net paid-in to the EU over 47 years”. While it’s difficult to put a single, definitive figure on the economic impact of Brexit, these claims don’t currently add up. They are based on figures which actually show the UK’s net contributions are higher than an estimated economic cost so far. Other reports have made a more defensible claim: that Brexit will “have soon cost” or “is set to cost” the UK more than 47 years of payments to the EU budget. But these still depend on accepting an uncertain estimate for the cost of Brexit so far, plus even more uncertain estimates of the future cost. And even then, the figure at the end of 2020 is still slightly lower. The claims are based on analysis by Bloomberg Economics which found that the “economic cost” of Brexit to the UK was £130 billion by the end of 2019. This looks at how much lower GDP is in real terms than it otherwise might have been had previous trends (from before the vote to leave the EU) continued between 2016 and 2019. This “cost”, according to the analysis, is set to rise to £200 billion by the end of 2020. To put that in context, the whole UK economy was worth about £2,144 billion—or £2.1 trillion—in 2018. Following the publication of the analysis these figures were then compared on social media (not by Bloomberg) to the UK’s total net contributions to the EU. Bloomberg Economics told us that the £200 billion figure it came up with was an estimate, as it’s impossible to be sure what the economy would have looked like if the UK had voted to remain in the EU in 2016. Many different estimates have been done of the impact of Brexit on the UK, as we’ve written about before. We haven’t looked in detail at Bloomberg Economics’ calculations, but it’s already clear that its estimates are still less than the UK’s net contributions to the EU. At the moment we only have figures on what the UK has contributed to the EU up to the end of 2018, so covering 45 years rather than 47. These have been gathered by the House of Commons Library. In that time the UK’s net contribution to the EU between 1973 and 2018 was about £216 billion in real terms (accounting for the way prices change over time and using 2019 prices). The net contribution was £156 billion in cash terms (not accounting for inflation). Both of these contribution figures are higher than the “economic cost of Brexit” estimated by Bloomberg Economics up to the end of 2019. The real terms figure of EU contributions (the more meaningful of the two) is still higher than the “cost of Brexit” estimated up to the end of 2020. If you estimate what the UK will have paid in net contributions by 2020, using the latest figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility on the financial settlement with the EU, then it comes to around £222 billion in real terms. https://fullfact.org/europe/online-c...contributions/
  2. Yes and I replied Bizarre Post are you not aware that the UK has already left the EU and and at the end of the year will leave the single market and customs union I was on St Kilda in Scotland a few years ago the people who lived on the island in the 1900's used to put messages in a bottle in order to communicate with the Scottish mainland , I thought the communications system in Scotland had improved over the past 120 years Maybe not
  3. No get out of jail card for Remainers, Their MP's could have voted for May weak soft brexit last year instead they were to busy trying to overturn the 2016 EU referendum with cancel brexit or another people's referendum
  4. No confusion from my side you clearly posted "Are you saying we are staying in the single market and customs union?"
  5. Bizarre Post are you not aware that the UK has already left the EU and and at the end of the year will leave the single market and customs union I was on St Kilda in Scotland a few years ago the people who lived on the island in the 1900's used to put messages in a bottle in order to communicate with the Scottish mainland , I thought the communications system in Scotland had improved over the past 120 years Maybe not
  6. Free trade deal is I sell you apples at market prices and you sell me oranges at market prices fair for everyone now if I add a condition of the trade that I sleep with you wife that would be considered unfair
  7. So staying inside the EU there never was any free trade deals Clearly you haven't watched the Cameron videos when he states 27 times if you vote leave the UK will leave the EU, the single market and the customs union.
  8. So when the remain camp was banging on about keeping the single market, customs union and free trade your now saying they were lying as free trade deals don't exist
  9. I think they do check everything now in other countries IO check the documents that are presented to them they can't check documents that you might obtain or you might not obtain in the future for example most countries wouldn't let you in if you passport has less than 6 months before it expires, Now it would be great if people could tell IO that they planning to renew their passport in a few months so can they granted access on that basis
  10. Yes but when you arrived at IO they look how long your visa is valid for and check that the number of days on your arrival card do not exceed the number of days that the visa is valid for
  11. Why did you put 63/64 days on the arrival card if your tourist visa was only valid for 60 days
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