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saengd

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About saengd

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  1. I'm seriously happy to debate Thai economics with you but you have to bring some facts to the table rather than just your ideas that you try to pass off as fact. If you have an idea that the Thai economy is about to fall off a cliff, try supporting that notion with some hard evidence, don't tell us that all the numbers are false and can't be relied upon, if they are false then find the hole in them and expose it. I'm sorry if you find my comments denigrating, there are things in this world that neither one of us knows and I'm happy to admit I don't know when I don't. But I'm 70 years old and I've lived through a number of financial crisis plus I've worked in finance/banking related fields all my career plus I've made a point of studying Thai economics for the past fifteen years, I am not about to suffer fools gladly on this subject.
  2. You really don't understand how this works, do you! Every budget deficit is collateralized by the Treasury and new Treasury bonds are offered to the market, historically these are all oversubscribed and recent sales have been cancelled because of excess demand. BOT pays a coupon rate of around 4% per year on the bonds and in thirty tears time when the bonds are due for redemption, the value of them is a fraction of what they are worth today. So no, having a budget debt of 150 bill would not mean that BOT would sell their reserves, things just don't work that way. Note: all budget deficits have been under 3% except one at 4.7%, compare that to other countries deficits and it's almost microscopic.
  3. THB is restricted currency, it's not full convertible, banks can only hold limited amounts hence nobody outside of Thailand can take a position against the currency. If they tried the best they could hope for is a slight impact in the offshore rate, the onshore rate is under the full control of BOT.
  4. You didn't answer my question, not surprisingly! In the wonderful world of TVF economics, posters come up with an answer and then try and support it with rhetoric, any fact that comes along that contradicts the answer is deemed to be false or manipulated, too funny really.
  5. I have read in the past three weeks where government hospitals in Thailand have been issued with three pricing structures, one for Thai's, one for ASEAN members and one for other foreigners, surely you must have seen that also? EDIT TO ADD: Here's one such article to confirm: https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/expats/foreigners-crying-foul-over-the-new-dual-pricing-policy-at-thai-public-hospitals and https://www.thephuketnews.com/dual-pricing-for-foreigners-now-legal-at-thai-public-hospitals-72766.php "Highlighting the disparity in rates charged, a simple antibody screening costs Thais and Asean nationals B130. Most expats will pay B190 while retirees and tourists pay double – B260, the report explained".
  6. Why would BOT have to sell the reserves, what could make that happen, give me a scenario? Demand for THB only falls if tourists stop coming here, exporters stop exporting and investors stop investing.
  7. You do understand (I know) that THB is a restricted currency, it is not fully convertible and may be held only in limited quantities by overseas banks. It is therefore almost impossible for non-Thai entities to take a position against THB that would cause it to crash. That said, it could "crash" if all exports ceased and all tourists stopped visiting and all foreign investors stopped investing.....and the chances of those things are close to zero.
  8. Just trying to add a few facts to the bar stool chatter on economics, not trying to defend anything, people can make their own decisions once they have some facts rather than a bunch of blather and noise.
  9. Non-performing loan ratio is quite low: https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=428&language=ENG Commercials NPL's under 3%
  10. The Managing Director and Global Head of Sovereign Ratings for Fitch Ratings, James McCormack, said today that Thai economic growth this year stood at 3%, which was a little lower than the 3.2% projection, due to the global economic volatility, but Thailand is still one of 12 only countries around the world with a positive outlook. https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/76165-fitch-ratings-raises-thailands-outlook-to-positive.html
  11. Also a note about loans. If Thailand borrows say US 100 bill to finance this or that, BOT will issues US 100 bill. equivalent of Treasury bonds at 4% for 30 years. Take up will be oversubscribed, gov. will have borrowed money at 4% and in 30 years when redemption is due, the capital value will be only a fraction of what it is today. It's a great way to finance infrastructure build out, cheap as chips.
  12. Not to confuse budget deficit with balance of trade (current account) surplus. Worth saying that the Thai gov. was strongly advised by World Bank and IMF to operate a larger deficit budget, simply because they have so much headroom that can be used to build out infrastructure.
  13. You're getting closer but still not there, try this to see if it helps...using the numbers we used previously: China supplies 50% more tourists than Europe, but Chinese tourists stay only 50% as long as Europeans, BUT Chinese tourists daily expenditure is 50% higher than Europeans.
  14. I agree that poster is on the right track, at least he's on a far better track than anyone who thinks a few empty hotel rooms means a financial crash! Crashes take time to build up in the background, everyone can see them building and all the components are right there in front of you. But in the meantime, everyday life continues, tourists keep arriving and exporters keep selling, those are not components of the crash, the background slow building things are. But in the case of Thailand and real estate: every country renews its housing stock from time to time, it's part of the cycle of development and growth, the problem with Thailand is there was so much housing to upgrade that seems everywhere is being rebuilt. I look around me at newer housing estates, the closest is high quality and it's sold out 100%; the next nearest is also good quality and it's sold out too; some of the older lower quality ones on the outskirts seem to have places for sale but in general, in the North, there's no ghost or empty sub divisions, no condo buildings with no lights on at all at night, even the agents web sites/windows confirm there's no such thing. Perhaps in Pattaya and elsewhere it's different.
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