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Donga

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About Donga

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    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 02/07/1952

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    Hua Hin, Sydney

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    www.cargocult.net.au

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  1. Absurd overreaction to go back into lockdown. Masks by all means, but not lockdown for a few cases. Much prefer Gladys approach in New South Wales with cases hovering around 10-20 cases per day for the last three weeks. Reported elsewhere that Adern was considering postponing next month's election, "she said no decision had yet been made on delaying the actual poll, but that she had sought advice about whether it was a viable option." Trump would be amused.
  2. I didn't realise Putin was so shallow. Never trusted him, but this is a new low. Back to the main real contenders, and still looking good for positive phase 3 results before year end.
  3. Agree with some of your comments as believe most countries are using blunt tools instead of relying on disciplined quarantine of known cases, sensible distancing and masks. Face masks were so under-rated for too long and cost many many lives in the northern hemisphere. Yes, treatment has probably improved and the elderly are hopefully being better protected. But don't kid yourself with your comparison to flu. Latest CDC Infected Fatality Rate is 0.65% which is mirrored in isolated countries where they've controlled Covid and did lots of testing, e.g. Iceland. The IFR for seasonal flu is 0.1% so Covid is at least 6 times more deadly. There is also much less immunity with Covid, so pushes it above 10 times more virulent than the flu, which can bring some countries and Western cities hospital resources to their knees. Those hospital news stories are real and clearly demonstrates why Covid needs to be carefully managed. Nevertheless, many authorities are being way too conservative, including the Thais. With community discipline and masks in place as well as the heat & humidity advantage (there's a reason Victoria is getting smacked in Winter) they could at least allow people return to their loved ones with airport testing and follow up. This is what Iceland has been doing for tourists generally for two months with very new few cases, which can be quickly contained. I suspect once we overcome this 2nd wave, and there are good signs in the region, that travel bubbles will again be considered. Covid will have done it's worse with better treatments underway and some phase 3 vaccine news. The mood will change and the conservative authorities will increasingly be compelled to revive their economies with less risk involved.
  4. How many kilometers of coastline is there for the French to keep watch over? Let's get real. The people making the money over there will always find ways to launch their dinghies. From the Aussie experience you have to kill the aim of these folk in getting to the UK, of leaving France in the first place. So, the message has to be, loud and clear - they will be detained and only bona fide asylum seekers will ever be permitted to stay, which will takes years to verify. Then you do it and the people smugglers will turn elsewhere.
  5. Big boats and lots of them. All sorts of detention centres (Christmas Island, Nauru, Papua New Guinea) and so much fuss from the Left on the issue. Illegal people smuggling at outrageous prices and folk told to not bring passports or ID. Crazy. The refugees as they are called on the ABC still have their supporters, but slowly the vast majority have come around to accept we gave the right to decide who enters our country. There's still a few hundred in detention, and some horrid experiences, but it stopped the waves of boats coming. We welcomed 80,000 Vietnamese refugees in the 70s and they have been wonderful additions to our country. We pull our weight in taking official refugees. But illegal boat people is different, for a number of reasons. And unfortunately if the people smugglers see a green light, they'll keep on bringing them in, illegally.
  6. Agree and in the same boat. Am hopeful they'll let us back after this 2nd wave in Victoria subsides, which now seems to be under way, maybe sorted by mid Sept. Be good if we can get Thai visas and Australian approval to head back October or November. Bloody quarantine be a nuisance but they might let us home isolate my lady tells me
  7. A little over the top. My crystal ball sees: 1. Testing to improve for cheaper, faster turnaround.. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w 2. More countries will emulate what Dubai and Iceland are doing to encourage tourism 3. Second wave where relevant will subside by end September, certainly Australia and most of Asia be under control 4. Travel bubbles will be formed later this year with less onerous conditions including no quarantine for those coming from safe countries 5. Treatment to become more refined with proven drugs and lessons learnt 6. A couple of vaccines will prove themselves by year end with release early next year to targeted groups. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html Tourism to slowly restart later this year and get into swing early next year. In the meantime, domestic tourism will help a little to compensate for the empty streets, which is the off season for much of the international market. It must be a depressing sight in Pattaya nonetheless, and my heart goes out to the poorer folk with limited options. Not all my items need to come into play, but there is clearly progress on some fronts. We'll have a better idea in a few months. Main ones be 2nd wave subsiding and travel bubbles, which were being considered by Thailand before the 2nd wave in a few local countries. Expect they'll resume talks once it subsides and we're beginning to see that in Asia Pacific. There is mounting pressure for governments to open up. Europe has already opened their borders internally. Fatigue and economic realities are becoming more compelling. Thailand will follow with safe measures - like the faster, cheaper tests already underway. Australia is nearly as conservative with Covid as Thailand, but expect that will change come Spring. Alan Joyce would rather be negative than positive for a couple of reasons - sympathy and setting expectations. The people at Etihad are taking a very different approach. There's a lot of positive stuff out there, but mainstream media doesn't cover much of it. They tend to report on the countries that are experiencing spikes, then as they get control, move onto others. Maybe I am overly optimistic, we'll see.
  8. A little over the top. My crystal ball sees: 1. Testing to improve for cheaper, faster turnaround.. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w 2. More countries will emulate what Dubai and Iceland are doing to encourage tourism 3. Second wave where relevant will subside by end September, certainly Australia and most of Asia be under control 4. Travel bubbles will be formed later this year with less onerous conditions including no quarantine for those coming from safe countries 5. Treatment to become more refined with proven drugs and lessons learnt 6. A couple of vaccines will prove themselves by year end with release early next year to targeted groups. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html Tourism to slowly restart later this year and get into swing early next year. In the meantime, domestic tourism will help a little to compensate for the empty streets, which is the off season for much of the international market. It must be a depressing sight in Pattaya nonetheless, and my heart goes out to the poorer folk with limited options.
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