Jump to content
BANGKOK

Walker88

Members
  • Content Count

    270
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

1,569 Excellent

About Walker88

  • Rank
    Senior Member

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. In an interview with journalist Howard Fineman, this is what Stone said, related to his stated hope that his sentence is commuted: “He (45) knows I was under enormous pressure to turn on him. It would have eased my situation considerably. But I didn’t.” That statement should make every real American either scared or ashamed, as it suggests many things: -45 is guilty and I know it, but I kept my mouth shut so he owes me -I know stuff I refused to spill, which means I purposely subverted the legal system, and that should come with a reward I believe the the US is preparing to replace the stars on the American flag with 50 little bananas. ------- As expected, media is now reporting that on a Friday night, 45 just commuted Stone's sentence. Crime DOES pay. All are equal under the law, except for those who are above it, or are "BFFof45"
  2. I doubt Immigration knows anymore than I do if the amnesty is going to be extended or not, as all of these decisions come from the PM, on his time frame, theoretically in consultation with his team. Immigration is simply being responsible and opening another facility just in case, so as to minimize person-to-person contact if a rush comes. I happened to go to Suvarnabhumi today and other than domestic flights and one flight to Shanghai, every single flight listed on the board said "Cancelled". Getting out is not quite the breeze many here seem to think. Since most flights would be coming in empty, and airlines worldwide are not exactly experiencing a tsunami of cash flow right now, "Cancellation" has been, and will likely remain, the norm for another month or two, which means if the amnesty is terminated, there will be a lot of people living the Tom Hanks "Terminal" movie role at Suvarnabhumi.
  3. Perhaps you are not capable of understanding the point, though it isn't particularly complex. You seem to insist that foreigners who have accepted the generosity and understanding of the Thai govt---you know them, THEY are the ones who make the rules---are somehow doing something untoward or impacting your quality of life or otherwise inconveniencing you. It seems unlikely that is the case, as they are merely following the rules set down by the Thai govt. Perhaps that which seems to upset you about this Thai govt decision stems from a fault within you?
  4. One wonders what difference it could possibly make to you if some foreigners enjoy the visa amnesty. Whether to extend it or not is totally up to the Thai govt as to whether they demand folks 'get the proper visa'. Are these foreigners stealing your job? Causing you any harm whatsoever? One might be excused for speculating those miffed by fellow foreigners enjoying this benefit have a life bereft of any joy, and need to be forever bitter about something. As has been stated repeatedly, some people do not work or reside in the country of their Passport, so have nothing to return to there. Others require multiple legs of a flight to get home, but one leg is often cancelled and requires a person to live in an airport, since the transit country is itself closed. Still others simply prefer the relative safety Thailand offers having quashed Covid, and are happy to spend money in Thailand while waiting. There's no harm done, but there is a benefit of money spent and Thai workers employed. I don't think you are going to open your wallet and aid the many Thais who will lose jobs when the amnesty ends and upwards of 40,000 foreign Western tourists are required to leave. Rather than seem put out by the extended amnesty, you might show some compassion for thousands of Thais who will be laid off when yet more hotels and restaurants close.
  5. Communists? Interesting to look at the analytics from the 2016 Election. 45 won 85% of all US Counties, but combined they account for only 38% of US GDP. HRC won 15% of US Counties, but they represent 62% of US GDP. Quick math says HRC areas are 9.25 times more productive than 45's zones. Sounds like HRC's supporters are Capitalists. 45 won heavily in Red States like KY, TN and WV, which are at or neat the top of per capita inhabitants living on Social Security Disability Insurance. SOunds like these States might be the commies. As for Patriots, few if any will ever support a guy who paid a doctor to write him a Fake Excuse to avoid service, or a guy who dissed a POW who had the choice of leaving captivity at any time but chose to stay 'until all of us walk out together', or a guy who disses Gold Star Families, or a guy who has no problem with a hostile foreign power offering bounties on the scalps of US Servicepeople. On the other hand, 45 does do well with the Never Served, non-college educated white male demographic.
  6. {White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said on Tuesday that it was a "book of falsehoods."} One of the first questions reporters asked McEnany after she called it a 'book of falsehoods' was: "Have you read the book?" "No", was her response. Oh, the irony!
  7. The size of this industry pre-Covid masked the harsh reality that traditional gainful employment in Thailand cannot come close to fully employing all those who need a job. The bar and agogo industry that caters primarily to foreign tourists employs an awful lot of people, as dancers, wait staff, security staff, cleaners, beer and booze distributors and manufacturers, taxi and tuk tuk drivers, short term hotel staff....even police. The Thai-driven industry is supposedly much larger still. Not all of those folks can open a nail salon or work at Macs. If this service and entertainment sector ceased to exist, UE would jump and tourism in general would slump, as even "decent" people like to take a peek at it. Also, a high percentage of women in that industry are single mothers who became pregnant as young teens and whose baby-father simply walked away. Because a 16 year old girl in school is 'confusing', she was likely made to drop out, which limits any career she might have hoped to have had. Women or females---as many of these mothers would be defined as 'girls'---pay an infinitely harsher price than males for a moment of irresponsibility or passion. For these women, it's a life sentence. Right or wrong, the bar industry---catering to both foreigners and Thais---absorbs tens of thousands of these women. How about some compassion? There is constant talk from the chattering class about how this industry should be reined in. Fine, what's the alternative? NOBODY offers up any solution, but instead just gets all righteous and holier-than-thou and says 'it's bad for Thailand's reputation'. Well, until somebody does something about it at the govt level, these women are going to gravitate to an industry that is about the only thing available to them. They didn't invent the profession, but they made it into an art form of sorts, literally creating a lot of jobs where they were none. Re the OP's question about how many will survive, probably not that many. Rents in Bangkok are absurd, but they will likely be the last price to tumble, though tumble they surely will. The women and staff currently employed, however, will not simply disappear, and there are fewer alternatives today to them then there were pre-Covid. There are countless mothers with 2 year old kids under great stress right now. There but for the grace of......
  8. "May you live in interesting times" Or if you prefer, Dickens: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." That old Chinese curse, or blessing as it may be, probably describes your life. So does Dickens. If you're 78, you were born during the most horrific conflict in all of human history. You also witnessed other wars, the rise of international terrorism, environmental destruction, and now this pandemic. The world, however, is certainly less bad today than the day you were born. That's a plus. You've seen enormous progress in invention and the body of human knowledge. You know things even the greatest minds in history prior to your birth never knew, because they weren't yet discovered. Life is, and always will be, a challenge. It must be embraced with both hands. Accept the endless challenge and find out what you're made of. That's the real purpose and beauty of life. Yes, we screwed up the environment, but we also learn ways to clean it up. We hate each other for minute genetic differences, but slowly learn to relish those small differences and accept each other as equals. We don't like people whose neuron circuitry has them attracted to their own gender, then we learn it is no more a choice than how tall we are going to be, so we come to accept it. We used to die from things that don't kill anybody today. We had most of the world trying to destroy Germany (war at the time of your birth, so illustrative), now Germany is a proud member of a cooperative economic body, a source of continual innovation, and a model world citizen. "Stuff" happens, but we get over it. We are human. We take a few steps forward, then we take a few backward. Always have and always will. The trend has been positive, however, even if sometimes we're on that backward path and forget how far we've come. There have been precious few periods of relative calm and peace since we walked out of Oldavai Gorge or the Garden (if that belief comforts you), so yes, we do often revert to the mean and the mean is just that: mean. Still, we've had it worse than we have it today. There is so much to know today, that it is almost impossible to be bored, unless one completely lacks curiosity. You can access most all of the world's knowledge without ever having to leave your home. That is pretty cool. Newton, Maxwell, Faraday, even Einstein would be jealous of what is literally at your fingertips. You can be as sociable as you wish, or you can withdraw and be a hermit, and current technology allows you to live comfortably no matter which path you choose. There is, admittedly, plenty not to like in today's world, but there is also plenty to challenge and inspire even a 78 year old man. You just need to choose. I'm of the view everybody kind of gets what he or she wants, at least in a basic sense, and at least for those who have access to online forums on a medium like the internet. If you were a female born to a poor rural family in Country X (I don't want to offend by naming one) or living in a place like Aleppo, circumstances are against you, but if you're on this forum neither of those is you. Adjust to your age, but continue to embrace the challenge that is life. Neither a Casandra nor a Pollyanna be, and you can both enjoy the good things and accept the pitfalls to which life is prone.
  9. Over time doctors learn what works and what doesn't in terms of treatment. Falling death rates could mean a weaker virus, but it could also mean doctors are using the knowledge gained to provide more effective treatments. For example, doctors have found that holding off on ventilator use has benefits in terms of limiting the side effect of blood clots, which have been the cause of death of numerous people put on ventilators. There's always a cost-benefit in any treatment option. As for 'herd immunity', again, it is too early to tell. The scientific journal Nature published research from China, looking at the earliest infected folks, and found anti-body decline to negligible levels after 2-3 months. The length of anti-body survival for MERS, in contrast, is 34 months on average. If you know some biochemistry, here's the LINK to Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6
  10. One might add that the visa amnesty could be extended to coincide with this. Apparently there are upwards of 40,000 in Thailand benefiting from the amnesty, which means that number spending money. It may not be the usual 40 million per year, but that many people can support a decent number of Thai jobs, which is a plus. Every little bit helps. The Labor Minister and TAT head should get the PM's ear.
  11. Maybe Thailand is being wise. According to some research, the virus has mutated into a more 'catchable' form, so opening borders could bring it back in. Also, a few people who have gone to Govt hospitals have told me some patients get whisked away as Covid is feared. That may be exaggeration or it may be a precaution for anyone who shows Covid-like symptoms. I hesitate to say it, because there is a view the govt is downplaying the actual # of cases, but since multiple people have told me, I mention it so anyone who has become complacent in Thailand can be reminded that precautions still make sense, especially those above 60, of which many expats reading here are. It doesn't hurt to try to stay safe. Regarding the economic impact, 'seedcorn' is saved for rainy days. It's now raining. Thailand has built up a sizable amount of FX reserves since 1997, and if there was ever a time to use them for the benefit of the people, that time is now. People are hurting badly. The majority of BKK hotels remain closed, and even the ones open are furloughing or rotating staff. Some work one week, then get 2-3 weeks off....without pay. Help them get through this! (Yes, I am well aware such concern for the Thai people might take a little prodding of the govt, but if they ever want to gain real popular support, aiding the people would be a pretty nice way to do it.) Because Thailand has some accumulated wealth in govt coffers, it need not make the decision between opening and saving the economy, OR keeping things closed and suffering the economic fallout. They can use Thai monetary reserves to buy time until more is known about the virus, better treatments become known and available (such as how HIV doesn't have a vaccine, but has truly effective treatments), or there is actually a working vaccine. This is an unprecedented time in modern history, so there is no set path or 'normal' solution. Day by day.....
  12. Didn't you leave out....let's see.....George Soros, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, the Rockefellers and Rothschilds, Bohemian Grove, Skull and Bones, The Bilderbergers, the rogue planet Nibiru, Ten Foot Shape-Shifting Lizard People, the Queen of England, Comet Pizza, other assorted members of "Deep State", 33rd Degree Freemasons, Area 51, and maybe Pee Wee Herman and Honey Boo Boo?
  13. Quite obviously you have knowledge of finance and markets. Therefore, you know that current prices already account for all that is known, as well as current psychology. Once the view of tomorrow begins to change, so does market psychology. Markets that have been relatively stable for long periods build up a kind of complacency, which is reflected by market players gravitating to one side. When their world is disrupted and positions begin to move against them, panic often ensues. FX markets tend toward long term trends, and trends tend to change when markets become boring, which is to say they reach a point of low movement and low volatility. The conditions for baht stability may well be changing right now. Govt finances are going to be hurt both by the need for aid to ailing companies and unemployed workers, as well as reduced tax remittances. The current account balance will change because of the fall in exports, as well as tens of millions of inbound tourists NOT exchanging their FX for baht. Exports are going to be hurt not only because worldwide growth is tumbling, and thus worldwide appetite for what Thailand exports, but also because many countries have realized that something like a pandemic can greatly disrupt supply chains. Over the next few years expect an increasing tendency for production to move ‘back home’ in whatever country 'home' is. The secondary advantage of such a move toward domestic production of all inputs is to maximize domestic employment, something else nations have suddenly realized, with this pandemic, is important. The baht may well hold steady based on yesterday’s factors, but the world looks to be changing in ways deleterious to the strength of the baht. Because the market is concentrated to one side currently---long baht---the move could be sudden and dramatic.
  14. Yes, that makes a lot more sense. While bad debt numbers are likely to rise markedly (Thai society is pretty highly leveraged), I do think the author of this article was confused.
  15. I'm not sure in what Universe 'brave' and 'bone spurs' go together. Also, I do not see too many Combat Ribbons on jared or barr or ratcliffe or ivanka or kellyanne or anybody in that Administration, nor among those who attend his rallies. OTOH, I know many folks whom anyone would call 'brave', who served in everything from DEVGRU to Ground Branch who are most definitely not fans of 45. I guess all of our experience can vary.
×
×
  • Create New...