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About Trillian

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  1. No, it's just 315 baht.....forget the 8 Pounds, that means nothing whatsoever here, except to you. A plate of pad thai in a food court is 40 baht, that's just 40 baht, not one Pound.
  2. Nobody is suggesting that will happen. All that is being said is that some of the money spent last year (THB 260 bill.) by native Thai people on overseas travel will this year be spent on domestic holidays and that will partially offset the loss caused by having no foreign tourists.
  3. Have you ever really looked at the people in any MacDonalds, Pizza Co. or KFC in Thailand, they are mostly all Thai's and the places are most often full? The reality is that those places are overpriced ONLY by comparison and ONLY to farangs, locals don't care, they can afford it.
  4. As said previously, Vietnam suffers from high inflation and unstable currency, not the sorts of things that attract investors.
  5. This is how TAT measures tourist spend in Thailand, it's the same system used by countries in the West to measure, unemployment, take census etc etc. The presentation below is from 2005 but useful because it explains the process which remains in use today: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/tradeserv/Workshops/Madrid/IWTS_Item17(Thailand).pdf
  6. The press and media and largely to blame for this confusion, it was said for a long time that Tourism represented 20% of GDP until somebody pointed out that Tourism is an export and in fact accounts for 20% of all Exports, NOT 20% of GDP. So if you want to calculate the value of Tourism you first have to know the value of all Exports and then take 20% of that figure. GDP in 2019 was valued at USD 520 bill., exported goods in that year were worth USD 249.2 bill. and Tourism was valued at USD 62.3 bill. Those numbers make Tourism worth about 20% of Exports and Total Exports worth 60% of GDP. Sliced a different way, Tourism was worth 12% of GDP. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp https://www.thaiwebsites.com/imports-exports.asp https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/international-tourism-receipts-percent-of-total-exports-wb-data.html https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/tourism-revenue
  7. Last year, Thai's spent 260 bill. on overseas travel. It's not unreasonable to think that some percentage of that spend will be diverted and spent on domestic travel this year.
  8. I don't think 11% of GDP is a tiny fraction: "Tourism is a key driver of Thai growth, with foreign tourist receipts accounting for 11% of gross domestic product last year".
  9. Unstable currency and high inflation, GDP is half that of Thailand.
  10. I would expect an increase in domestic tourism to compensate for some of that, as I recall that's valued at THB 260 bill.
  11. I hope that's a tongue in cheek posting and that you don't really believe those numbers? It should go without saying that's a snapshot in time and doesn't begin to consider the ongoing and forward financial obligations that can't be simply shelved if (theoretically) all the assets were sold, forward SSc , medical care and T'bills interest payments being just three of them.
  12. https://www.thaienquirer.com/13428/thailands-exports-value-expand-by-2-12-per-cent-in-april-and-1-19-per-cent-in-the-first-four-months-of-2020/ https://thethaiger.com/news/business/shock-rise-in-exports
  13. You think that 1 Baht, 17 satang in two months is a huge amount in a short space of time, really? Well I don't, especially since during that time the US Dollar fell from 102.0 to 98.1, in truth the value of THB hardly moved at all. But the value of USD did fall over the same period so it gives the appearance of Baht strengthening which in fact it is not. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy But you ask what would happen to the value of THB if Thailand were to open its' doors to international tourism once again, my answer to that question is, not much at all! The value of THB is only affected by trades against USD, not by trades against tourist currencies. Very little USD enters the country as result of tourism but huge amounts are earned by Thai exporters when their export trade bills are settled by overseas buyers because these are all denominated in USD.
  14. The Thai Central Bank has control over the exchange rate to a certain degree but they don't have control over policy, it's their job to implement whatever policy the government of the day has decided upon. BOT could not unilaterally decide to lower the exchange rate just because some people think it is too strong and anyway, devaluing the Baht without fixing the underlying causes of the strong Baht would be nothing more than a waste of time and effort. The major reason why the Baht is so strong is because the current account or trade balance is always in surplus, fixing that problem means Thailand would need to import more which would mean compromising national industries and favored country partnership, e.g. Japan. Changing those things are way beyond BOT's remit and authority, that needs a change in government policy to open up the country to external competition. As for the economy being down 60%, well, that's just nonsense really, you clearly weren't paying attention when you studied the subject in university and you don't read local newspapers, Thai exports last month were actually up on a year ago!
  15. Wow, a whole 17 satang less, split hairs much! OK let's be generous and say it went from 33 to 31.83 over two month, does that suddenly make it a steep increase.....of course it doesn't!
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