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About Poet

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  1. We all agree that his comments about Vern Unsworth were shocking and a slur against all expats living in Thailand. What you said, however, was: Presumably his downfall would involve the failure of his projects. I'm saying that would be unfortunate because he appears to be obsessively focused on goals that would advance humanity, and uniquely equipped to gather and focus the resources to pursuse them. Great men are often odd and objectionable, but their success benefits us all.
  2. Wow. Blocking me seems an extreme reaction when all I did was politely disagree with @BritManToo and take the time to explain why. It's a pity, because he has liked and interacted with a lot of my posts on other subjects, and I with his. I guess there is something about Bitcoin that just annoys the heck out of some people. I suspect they heard about it early on, back when it was a few cents, but decided not to take punt. Now, after watching it gain in value, they feel a bit raw. Again, my own approach is that I don't care how much it cost in the past. I base my judgement on whether I think it will gain value over what it costs today. I took the time to explain my thinking because crypto is part, but not all, of my own retirement plan.
  3. I, on the other hand, would quite like to seem him succeed in his dream of getting humanity to Mars. He responded badly to a provocation he should have known to ignore, but that doesn't cancel out his astonishing achievements in online payments, electrical vehicles, solar, and space travel. Odd though he may be, we are lucky to have Elon Musk.
  4. This news will be a relief to the many members of this forum whose professional and social lives revolve around TikTok.
  5. That's the problem with local poets. They never learn how to use the return key.
  6. We pretty much know the exact return on lottery tickets in general, and its terrible. There is also no way to sell them after the draw. Not a great long-term investment or store of value. The guy who invented and generated the first few bitcoin certainly made some nice money, as did the first few thousand people to understand it. They kickstarted the market and deserve their millions just as much as the first few investors to understand the importance of Google. Unlike government currencies or most other stores of value, neither the inventor nor the early enthusiasts have any way to reach into the mathematics and grab more for themselves. The market is about as pure and frictionless as you can get. As a decentralised market, there is no middle man shaving off fees or manipulating the buyer and seller. Consider, by contrast, the diamond market. It is a pretty much open secret that the de Beers monopoly are sitting on massive stores of diamonds already mined but carefully released only in amounts that will not crater the market and the public perception that diamonds are rare. If you want to sell or buy, you must either buy through authorized dealers or worry about forgeries. If you try to sell a ring back to the jeweller you bought it from, he will almost certainly screw you on the price.
  7. Is there any place where a normal person spends money that accepts gold, share certificates, or government bonds? As described in my post, I am using it as a store of value. Not a valid metric for this. The number of coins being bought and sold create the market price. Unlike the number of people using, say, Android or iPhone, the precise number of people behind those crypto trades is irrelevant. If people stop accepted dollars tomorrow, only the people holding dollars would care. Demand may rise or fall tomorrow, but it is not going to disappear. There is a very common misconception about what Bitcoin is. It is one of the only assets that cannot be forged, that we know exactly how many of them exist or will ever exist, that cannot be inflated by some central authority, that can be sent instantly to anyone on the planet, that cannot be revoked, and that can be carried invisibly through any border. For the things it is used for, those unique qualities are extremely useful. In fact, it is the only way to conduct certain large transactions. As I explained in my post, demand massively increases when governments become more authoritarian and place more controls on money. It is a fair guess that the economic impact of Covid will affect many countries over the next few years.
  8. Somewhere, on a Thai language forum, someone has just started a thread whose titles translates as "Crazy son-in-law".
  9. Their success will continue unabated as long as they continue to severely limit testing.
  10. Bitcoin has been around for over a decade. That has been long enough for us to learn that, despite being a highly volatile asset, it is good performer if you play the long game. Putting 1% of your funds into Bitcoin each month is a smart way to approach it. The majority of your funds should be in lower-yield but lower-risk assets, but I honestly think people are crazy not to have at least some crypto as part of their portfolio. My observation is that, the longer Bitcoin is around, the more accepted it becomes despite the volatility. People are no longer as spooked by that. As the price swings wildly up and down, what I pay attention to are the new floors below which the price will not fall. The spectacular highs are an illusion, but the steady rise, year-by-year, of the levels it falls back to after the highs is encouraging. Never take it too seriously the first time it breaks a certain price. For example, it broke both $100 and $200 in April 2013 but did not permanently clear $100 until October, and did not permanently clear $200 until November. It broke both $500 and $1,000 in November 2013 but did not permanently clear $500 until May 2016, and did not permantently clear $1K until March 2017. It broke $3K in June 2017 but did not permanently clear it until August 2017. It broke $4K in August 2017 but did not permanently clear it until March 2019. The Covid crash in March this year saw it plummet down from around $10K to $5K, so, I now consider $5K to be a fairly solid floor. It took six weeks for it to get back up to $10K and my guess is that it will pretty much stay above that now unless there is another severe crash this year, at which point I would expect to again stay above $5K and to rebound quickly. I do not expect another crash this year. Current price is $11K. Over the years, it has gone as high as $19,665 but, again, those highs are an illusion. Sure, you might get lucky and sell on a high, but at that point you might as well just be a day-trader. I prefer to treat all my cryptos as long-term assets. I honestly don't care when the price plummets because it always shoots back up. I know that, fairly soon, it will permanently clear $20K but I will not sell any at that point. I am happy to just leave my coins in there and keep adding a small additional amount every month. My working thesis is that, in 2021 and 2022 the ripple effects of Covid are going to cause havoc in the economies of many countries. Taxes and controls will increase. Historically, the need of families to get money out of, for instance, Venezuela and China, has put a rocket under the price of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the continued printing of the major currencies ("Quantative Easing") will further devalue their credibility, again driving interest in and demand for Bitcoin. I am confident that it will hit $100K by roughly the midpoint of this decade.
  11. For transactions, true. Bitcoin is excellent, however, as store of value. Ethereum has been more profitable for me this year but I have greater trust in Bitcoin as my longterm "base". I would recommend anyone curious about crypto to jump right in with a few dollars and get a sense of how it all works. It might turn out to be well worth having your account set up if, due to Covid costs, governments in the West start introduce even heavier taxes and onerous conditions restrictions on bank accounts.
  12. Excellent planning. This will be proof of how concerned they were about the students' well-being before things got out of hand and they were forced forced to shoot a few dozen of them.
  13. That isn't what you said. You suggested that Fox News was labeling small, unaffiliated violent groups who were not Antifa as Antifa. That happens to be incorrect. I have no doubt that Fox News and any of the deeply partisan TV news organisations on the other side will make the maximum use of whatever cards they are dealt. You can hardly fault them for that in the current hyper-reality. It might be painful to face this reality head on, but any solution will require more cops, not fewer. The actual Democrat establishment knows this, which makes their use and endorsement of BLM deeply hypocritical. This has become a "By Any Means Necessary" election for the Democrats and, even if they win, the legacy of that will be more damaging to America than anything Trump has done. In any case, while I respect your exposition of your views, we are clearly experiencing different realities. It would be foolhardy of me to try to argue fact-by-fact, so, I shall wish you a good day and head out in search of a strong coffee and a delicious banana pancake
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