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samran

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Everything posted by samran

  1. I do expect hurried 'free' trade deals to be signed between the UK and Australia/NZ post brexit. In the UK governments desperation to get a 'win' on the board, the FTAs will be heavily lopsided, and not in the UK's favour. But such will be the quid pro quo when you want an FTA for PR purposes, rather than the normal ones negotiated over 5-10 years.
  2. Minimising pensioners forex exposure isn't one of the roles and responsibilities laid out in the Bank of Thailand Act...
  3. Okay so he goes with the bar stool experts. He lowers interest rates for already a quite low number. 1.5% down to what should it be??? Then he has to deal with a precarious condo sector which is already over leveraged. The lower interest rates will no doubt make that worse. Consumer credit debt levels are already at a record. Lower interest rates will just make that worse. The baht....may or may not move in the direction the pensioners want it to. He doesn’t control world markets and to try and do so is to just ask for a repeat of 1997. So you’ve lowered interest rates - pump primed an already overheated construction market, exacerbated consumer debt. Oh and maybe, just maybe, lowered the baht. what is your ‘common sense’ solution?
  4. Clearly you've never seen him in action. He's got a masters and PhD for Harvard with plenty of blue chip experience. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veerathai_Santiprabhob What are your qualifications?
  5. Or, you could just go to their website.... https://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/Pages/StatInternationalReserves.aspx
  6. Come on Trans... 'they' need to give you market access, cause you know, you leaving the EU means that the easy access you had to sell your stuff on the continent goes up in smoke. Surely you know the only way to pay for your imports is with the foreign currency earned from exports?
  7. Gawd, basing your trade strategy on the blinkered nostalgia for colonialism, and - the exploitation and maladministration of many of those places aside (partition anyone?) - hoping there is any goodwill left after you threw your former colonies under the bus to join EEC. That's one way of doing it I guess.
  8. Well, i am half thai, but not that means anything...you just have to watch and understand the BOT. The BOT is fairly insulated legally. I know you will scoff, but its one of the laws which is taken seriously. The BOT just doesn't have independence from the MOF and the government written into its charter, the governor of the BOT can't be fired once appointed. That buys you a lot of independence from the MOF, Somkid and Prayuth. The charter is different now than it was in 1997, independence deliberately written in post AFC, to avoid a repeat of government interference which led to 1997. The problems the Thai economy, and the strong baht pose now are not the same as those in 1997. As for capital controls....not sure what you are saying. Outward capital controls are being relaxed as they want funds to exit as easily as possible, and weaken the baht. I'm not sure why you'd want inward capital controls...then exporters wouldn't be able to be paid as easily, a real kick in the guts. As for Thailand's budget deficit, and I stand to be corrected, but it is tiny comparatively speaking and can be financed domestically if they wanted to via bond issuance. As for the strong baht and the purchases of assets offshore? So what, it also means Thailand can import much needed capital equipment cheaply. So its not all doom and gloom, except, it seems, you have come here on a pension.
  9. What makes you so sure that the commonwealth countries are going to give you anything at all? Or are you guys now willing to release your post brexit economic and trade strategy to show where the losses from brexit will be made up?
  10. I've never seen that 'rule'. Interest rates are set with reference to inflation, inflationary expectations and overall monetary stability. In addition, you don't lower interest rates if it isn't going to actually have any affect. At the moment, I suspect that is why the BOT is keeping their powder dry.
  11. I agree that’s where Thailand is. In an earlier post I argued that a higher baht may be the thing that will force exporters off the methadone of a weak currency and actually make the productivity gains needed to help break Thailand out of that trap.
  12. Agree that there was significant inward investment then, but they still had to export those goods with the baht relatively high, and managed to do so. Also, it’s not as if that tap has been turned off. The value of BOI applications is up 70% yoy. The conditions which created the AFC were high domestic interest rates to defend the strong baht. All the while local companies borrowing offshore at relatively lower interest rates instead all assuming that there was minimal forex risk to pay back these loans. Today we haven’t got the high interest/inflation environment that went in tandem with a higher baht back then.
  13. Anyone's business who closes down will likely blame all and sundry, except for themselves. Granted, there is stuff the government can do, but it is the fundamental long term stuff. Education, training, infrastructure. Other than that I wouldn't let the Thai government get near my business with a ten foot barge poll - businesses need to fend for themselves. And you are right, this transition probably won't be pretty. The fact is that Thailand grew strongly through the 80's and early 90's - with a strong baht policy. Back then the AUD/THB was 17-18 baht to the dollar, the USD/THB was around 20-22. Not that they need to replicate the conditions that created that (they were artificial and led to the AFC eventually), but nevertheless, Thai business can thrive and survive in these conditions, and to be honest, the probably need a strong baht to give them the kick up the @rse that they need.
  14. Probably the only two economic literate and intelligent posts on this entire thread which is littered in self interested 'me me me-isms' from people who moved country and didn't take into account currency variations. The fact is, Verathai would wipe the floor with about anyone moaning on this thread. And he'd do it in better English too. Those who think he's doing the bidding of Prayuth also know nothing about the dynamics of the BOT and the government of the day, the BOT being probably the only stubbornly independent organisation within the Thai government. To say he hasn't noticed the issue is <deleted>. Anyone following this debate knows that the BOT is watching it, but as others said, what really can you do. The same clowns who move to Thailand to escape 'nanny states' all of a sudden want him to intervene to make there pensions go further. Talk about hypocritical. The problem is, the central bank rate is already low. Lowering it any more will have minimal impact. You don't devalue your way to prosperity. And to make rash statements isn't part of any central bank governors remit, so asking him to do any more than he is doing publicly is a foolish request. Are Thai companies and individuals benefiting from a high baht? Probably and they'd be stupid not to. Investing overseas - and borrowing baht domestically at low interest rates to fund these expansions - makes sense, and the capital outflows, such as they exist, help alleviate the pressure on a stronger baht. So you can't be moaning about the fact that people are taking advantage of it and not recognise the benefits it has on not making the baht even stronger. That the government is incompetent is another issue not related to the BOT. Anyone who's ever been for a meeting there will know they aren't a bunch of dozers. IMHO, a strong baht is a good thing for Thailand right now, and I suspect the BOT know this. Post AFC, Thai companies have gotten addicted to a weak baht to support their export industry. Whether that be manufacturing or tourism. Its ultimately led to laziness and low productivity grown as they've been able to muddle through and get value not through any real innovation, but due to a cheap currency. Government hasn't done anything to encourage anything differently. Education and vocational skills training is still lousy. A protracted period of 2-3 years of strong baht will make domestic businesses focus and either get better, or wither. Export focused businesses, if they get through this patch, will genuinely be globally competitive as they will have restructured and not be reliant on the weak currency to make their sales for them. As it should be. What will be left will be stronger and more productive economy.
  15. Yeah not using the app. Only my phone browser. When I turn on VPN I can access the site though.
  16. Was trying to log in. Depending on which wifi I’m using but I’m being told I’m banned....<deleted>...???
  17. "I've never wished a man dead, but there are some obituaries I envisage reading with great pleasure."
  18. It’s a good topic. I run my own business and as a director I’m not eligible. I’m thinking of putting myself down as an employee of a friends company and get into the SS system that way. I’ll essentially pay it. His company can invoice mine, and then his company pays me a salary with SS deductions made. Do this for 6 months or a year whatever the minimum time needed is, ‘quit’ the job and then continue to make voluntary contributions. We have good private insurance and always intend to do so, but having the SS as a back up isn’t a bad thing.
  19. That’s correct. My wife didn’t have to take the oath. Once it was announced in the RG the you wait a few weeks for SB to basically give you an offical letter with the RG announcement printed as an addendum. You then take that to the district office and get the house registration and ID card sorted.
  20. I know you were trying to be deliberately amusing as opposed to most of your dads army posts which are unintentionally amusing (but funny for the rest of us) but it’s actually not a bad idea. The first verse of the Kiwi National anthem is already sung in the Maori language and the SA national anthem incorporates many of the native languages. Some of the best at the recent RWC. Who’d have thunk it Trans? Underneath it all you are really a virtue seeking, PC, kumbaya singing tolerance seeker. Next you’ll be telling us all how you need a safe space and really voted ‘in’.
  21. Careful, you are also talking to the same lot of blokes who believe if it wasn’t for them and their state pensions Thailand would be down the economic crapper.
  22. Welcomed as hero’s after murdering a few soap dodging invaders.
  23. Thankfully, none. Irish all the way, pal. The sooner the Union Jack is off my flag, and Betty is off the back of my coins, the better...
  24. We were talking post WW2, that is, time before you (begged to) join the EU. Do keep up. Australia.
  25. well, post WW2 your economy spluttered and your empire fell apart. You were the sick man of Europe.
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