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Denim

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Posts posted by Denim

  1. 24 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

     

    Mine as well. She's now an "expert" on Volts and watts. 🙄 

    Now she's found a guy in town who will convert hers from 350 to 500 watts. We live near hills.

    I'll have to build a fireproof bunker so she can charge it🤔

     

    She looked into that to but decided that for the cost might as well get a bigger scooter. She started off with one with 2 batteries ( 250 watt ) but I just got her one with three batteries and 350 watt motor. This giver her a top speed of about 30 kph. Wouldn't want her going faster than that with her lack of skills. Rarely goes further than 1 kilometer. Good enough.

  2. 10 minutes ago, Bill97 said:

    Misinformation,  strong sex industry here before Vietnam War R&R.

     

    Yup, they don't call it the oldest profession for nothing.

     

    Still, Thailand has made itself the hub of venality so videos like this are just ....well.....

     

    image.jpeg.ffc6666150dcd95407d6e0810cae5f08.jpeg

  3. 7 minutes ago, PJ71 said:

    In KK, total BS.

     

     

     

    Which part is BS. The temperature 40 years ago or the ice on the puddles ?

     

    Both are true . I lived in a village ( Prayuen ) 25 k outside KK.  Even now parts of Thailand get hail storms and villages are temporarily covered in icy hail stones.

     

    Dito for the temperature. Whilst I was there , never hotter than 35 in the shade.

     

    Even when we lived in Nonthaburi 14 years ago, woke up one day IN MARCH and it was 17 degrees when the sun came up. Totally freak weather for that time of year.

     

    Again , back in 1984ish I had to wade up Sukhumvit Soi 24 with water halfway up to my knees to get to my apartment at Peter Court

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  4. 1 minute ago, eisfeld said:

     

    I don't see how that's an example of that. If anything it's the opposite. It explains both in layman's terms as well as math why asking a bit over a thousand people is enough in a poll which is why nearly all polls ask exactly this amount of people. You critized the size of the poll and said the number of people asked is meaningless. It's not. BTW the video you posted is funny, I like the idea. But he really could have used some better examples. He wants to show that while being mathematically correct you can still completely mislead with statistics but his statistics isn't even right. His first example with the chips vs pretzels is good though.

     

    Well Tony Pengs vlog starts off with :

     

     

    1. The crucial goal/assumption of a poll of being able to select a random sample of voters,
    2.  

    So right from the get go there is a problem  since to have a truly  ' random sample of voters '  you would have to take that sample from all the voters without any pre screening.  This means you would have to collate all the elligible voters into a computer program and then have the computer randonly select 1000 people to interview , wherever or whoever they might be. But this is not what happens. Those individuals doing the poll will obviously ony talk to people from whom they can expect a coherant answer. They won't look under the motorway for a group of drunks and poll them. And yet , those drunks , if they are adults , will probably be eligable voters. Similarly , the pollsters will not venture into the provinces to interview the computer chosen individuals, they will stay close to base and take their' random sample ' from people close at hand who look like they could answer the questionaire. But this has already introduced screening and bias into the poll so the results will be affected.

     

    Thai polls are well known to be inaccurate and this has attracted attention :

     

    https://www.thaienquirer.com/49635/shy-prayut-voters-or-scared-prayut-voters-election-polls-accuracy-and-bias/

     

    The BP has commented on this and about the disparity in results between the Suan Dusit Polls and the Nida polls but forum rules forbit me provideing a link but you can google it using the words Bangkok Post inaccurate polls.

     

    Worth noting that none of the pollsters predicted MFPs huge victory because they could not truly select a random sample of voters.

    If they could have , then the 1000 people selected would have been able to paint a more accurate picture of the situation in the whole 

    country. Statistical fact is that there are more voters living outside Bangkok than in it.

     

    • Haha 1
  5. 58 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

     

    In order to have statistically significant results with relatively low margin of error you need a little bit over 1000 respondents in a poll regardless of population size. Here a good article that explains it for statistics newbies: https://towardsdatascience.com/statistical-foundations-of-election-poll-c1fade2dce2e

     

    Well, the link to Tony Pengs vlog is a perfect illustration of the old saying : There are lies , damn lies and then there are statistics :

     

     

    • Confused 1
  6. 1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

    Always good to have an expert on polling on the thread. If you think this is "meaningless and misleading" why don't you look back to the actual results of the last election. This poll suggests that MFP is increasing their lead after what was already a landslide victory in they were undemocratically denied their right to form government. Why would this be "meaningless and misleading"?

     

    I'm glad you like MFP. So do I . But did you read the full article ?

    9 hours ago, webfact said:

    The poll shows 45.1% of the male and 46.1% of the female respondents say they will not vote for either Move Forward or Pheu Thai, but will vote for the other parties.

     

    This is what I find misleading and meaningless since although , as you say , MFP had a great victory at the polls , this poll implies that at the next election it will be ' other parties ' that get almost 50% of the vote ???  What other parties do they mean ?? The parties associated with the conservative military parties ??

     

    This poll suggests that if there were an election tomorrow :

     

    9 hours ago, webfact said:

    37.3% of the females and 37% of the males say they will vote for Move Forward.

     

    Personnaly , I do not think this poll, conducted on a small amount of people not living in the provinces , reflects the true popularity of MFP.

     

    Either way , most people ( even Pita himself ) are of the opinion that the MFP will not be contesting the next election since they are likely to be banned again by those who fear an election victory by a party they deem to be too radical.

     

    Question is, if MFP are banned and a third incarnation appears , will it stand a fair chance in the next election when both Phua Thai and the military are running scared and will do their best to see that the status quo remains.

    • Confused 1
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