what's going on with the Thai Baht

[whaleboneman]

6 minutes ago, Spock said:

Just as you look down on farangs who can't read Thai?

Just because the guy is trying to educate some doesn't mean he looks down on them.

[Spock]

5 minutes ago, whaleboneman said:

Just because the guy is trying to educate some doesn't mean he looks down on them.

I can speak Thai reasonably well but have not yet learned to read it. I would have appreciated the Thai in the romanized alphabet so that I could learn something. Using Thai script and the English translation educates nobody. I just thought it ironic that he would choose this approach given he was criticizing supremacist attitudes.

[Thaidream]

Thailand has become a consumer society and there is a burgeoning middle class.  In addition, credit has expanded considerably. Even low income people can obtain a car because most of them have a plot of land to use as collateral or can get a friend or family member to guarantee a loan,  There are definitely new housing developments going up everywhere.  Most of all this development is due to credit not necessarily a real economic expansion.  Whether it is sustainable remains to be seen.

 

The Baht is way overvalued and it is mostly due to foreign funds inflow due to bonds and stocks. In addition, Thailand has a large balance of payments surplus due to protectionism  The financial exports expect a funds outflow, especially when the US raises interest rates probably in March and  American business brings its offshore funds back due to the lower tax rates.

[Spock]

The Thai baht is very expensive against the Australian dollar.

[mfd101]

3 hours ago, Wake Up said:

Travel around Thailand by car. Economy is growing in every area north and south with future investments planned for the EEC and roads and rail and sky. 

Yes, when I look at the situation here in south Surin and compare it to when I first visited in June 2012, the amount and speed of change is startling. Water buffalo and the old peasant tractors have all but disappeared; the traffic on the roads expands every week, as do improvements to the road network. Here in Prasat, the town is booming as it's on the crossroads of the main east-west arterial route from BKK (24) and the main local road north/south (214). ASEAN delivering the goods.

 

Reminds me of NZ & Oz (and other 'Western' countries) expanding hugely in the 1960s & 70s as 'modernity' & technology started to change the world for ordinary people.

[Thingamabob]

Movements in the Baht are mostly controlled by top families in Thailand. For example if one of them wants to buy a hotel in London you will see the value of the Baht rise steadily prior to purchase. Other influences are relevant of course, but nothing like as relevant as local manipulation. Keeps the elite rich and everyone else in their place. 

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, Thingamabob said:

Movements in the Baht are mostly controlled by top families in Thailand. For example if one of them wants to buy a hotel in London you will see the value of the Baht rise steadily prior to purchase. Other influences are relevant of course, but nothing like as relevant as local manipulation. Keeps the elite rich and everyone else in their place. 

Of course they do dear!

[soalbundy]

4 hours ago, jesimps said:

Wish I was idiot enough to become filthy rich and be elected POTUS.

I wouldn't want a life where I was that ignorant and uncouth.

[12DrinkMore]

5 hours ago, jesimps said:

You have a problem. If I were you I'd have it seen too. Your posts have racist undertones and I reckon the mods should have a word.

 

Please tell me which posts are you referring to?

 

And do not hesistate to report me to the mods if you feel that way.

 

[puipuitom]

In the late 80-s I followed a course at the Uni of Amsterdam about  international values of currencies,  exchange rates etc.

At the end, one of the students thanked the professor for his 13 lectures and.. asked.. can you also tell the exchange rate of the U$ towards the EU currencies ?

The prof smiled and said: "for the US$ towards the EU currencies ( read: DM), you have to fbe at the Faculty of Psychology, NOT of that of Economics ".

Bye -the-way: Euro versus THB, 13:15 21 Jan 2018:    38,493545  = transfer from € to THB, no furter costs above € 10.000 so quite similar as already a     l  o  n  g   time.  ( + of - 1)                     

 

[Winky Wilson]

The Fed interest rates have been extremely low while the markets have been bearish. Countries central banks have been borrowing and investing in markets and loans increasing the values of their currencies. Not just the Baht, many currencies. The problem is that Janet lingered in raising interest rates. Expect many increases in interest rates in 2018, eventually increasing the value of the dollar. Dollar is the world standard currency. Powerful Thai Baht will affect tourism in the kingdom while devalued dollar increasing tourism and foreign investment in the USA. Not all bad.

[wolf81]

12 hours ago, connda said:

The real question is: "What is happening to the USD, British Pound, and the Euro?"

Perhaps has something to do with quantitative easing for USD & Euro and Brexit for GBP?

Though just recently for 1 EUR I could get about ~39 THB. IIRC it was a lot worse a few months ago.

[lannarebirth]

14 hours ago, Thaidream said:

Thailand has become a consumer society and there is a burgeoning middle class.  In addition, credit has expanded considerably. Even low income people can obtain a car because most of them have a plot of land to use as collateral or can get a friend or family member to guarantee a loan,  There are definitely new housing developments going up everywhere.  Most of all this development is due to credit not necessarily a real economic expansion.  Whether it is sustainable remains to be seen.

 

The Baht is way overvalued and it is mostly due to foreign funds inflow due to bonds and stocks. In addition, Thailand has a large balance of payments surplus due to protectionism  The financial exports expect a funds outflow, especially when the US raises interest rates probably in March and  American business brings its offshore funds back due to the lower tax rates.

 

Given the US Federal Reserve's "Dot Plot", wouldn't you say that all interest rate hikes in the US and those to come this year are already baked into valuations? 

[poanoi]

16 hours ago, jesimps said:

Wish I was idiot enough to become filthy rich and be elected POTUS.

step 1] be born rich

step 2] inherit your parents empire

step 3] carry on biz as usual with your fathers employees and routines

[simoh1490]

15 hours ago, Thaidream said:

Thailand has become a consumer society and there is a burgeoning middle class.  In addition, credit has expanded considerably. Even low income people can obtain a car because most of them have a plot of land to use as collateral or can get a friend or family member to guarantee a loan,  There are definitely new housing developments going up everywhere.  Most of all this development is due to credit not necessarily a real economic expansion.  Whether it is sustainable remains to be seen.

 

The Baht is way overvalued and it is mostly due to foreign funds inflow due to bonds and stocks. In addition, Thailand has a large balance of payments surplus due to protectionism  The financial exports expect a funds outflow, especially when the US raises interest rates probably in March and  American business brings its offshore funds back due to the lower tax rates.

Oh dear!

 

The Baht has the value that it has because people keep buying it, that's how currencies become strong. Exporters keep buying it as they exchange USD from their export bills into THB and tourists keep buying it because they want to spend money when they come here on holiday. Some FDI represents investors chasing yield but we've been through that cycle already where Thailand has attracted large-scale FDI, the Fed has said they will increase rates and a lot of FDI has flowed out again. Where we are today is that future increases by the Fed are broadly understood at this point and are reflected in the current exchange rates - FDI has also reverted to inflow once again as a result.

 

As for the Baht being "way overvalued": in reality, it is undervalued currently but both BOT and the exporting community hopes it remains that way because it is a problem for the economy. Trying to weaken THB further means BOT selling USD from its foreign currency reserves and buying THB, something it has been doing periodically for the past few years. Other measures BOT has taken include relaxing the rules on foreign currency ownership and investment by locals in the hope exporters will hang on to their Dollars rather than convert them to THB. But with the Dollar Index at 90 and USD going through the floor, the Fed is not exactly providing an incentive for Thai exporters to hold on to USD hence they are a part of this currency problem.

 

FWIW I fully expect THB to continue to strengthen for the foreseeable future and to approach pre-crisis peg levels at some point in the next decade.

[Franko666]

On 11/01/2018 at 6:40 PM, tonray said:

Trump is killing me..........only a short time ago.....36 to the dollar...now 32.......idiot

Trump isn't concerned about US citizens who go overseas to spend their USD. He wants them to spend at home.

[Franko666]

On 11/01/2018 at 9:45 PM, Kwasaki said:

Nah his just a moment in time.

Often, the less democratic the Country is the more currency manipulation happens, that  includes China and all the other military style non democracies.

[Franko666]

23 hours ago, chicowoodduck said:

Oops, guess I will wait a bit before I unpack my bag? ???

Best exch rate is often the street rate but all things in moderation.  :)

[Kwasaki]

2 hours ago, Franko666 said:

Often, the less democratic the Country is the more currency manipulation happens, that  includes China and all the other military style non democracies.

Depends what you call or describe democratic,  USA is one and Swiss gov allegedly the best. 

[timendres]

On 1/12/2018 at 1:45 AM, Spock said:

I can speak Thai reasonably well but have not yet learned to read it. I would have appreciated the Thai in the romanized alphabet so that I could learn something. Using Thai script and the English translation educates nobody. I just thought it ironic that he would choose this approach given he was criticizing supremacist attitudes.

I had no intention of trying to appear "superior". If I was attempting that, I would have forgone the English translation and just left the Thai script for you to copy into Google Translate. I just included it for those who can read, and because it is precise. Personally, I dislike the transliterated Thai, because it is often incorrect and it is difficult to convey the critical tones. So many times, I have seen transliterated Thai in this forum and was completely incapable of determining what the person was trying to say. I realize that many people learn Thai by speaking and listening, and frankly, I am envious. But I am a visual learner. So I needed to learn the script, because I need to "see" the word in my mind in order to remember it.

[Mac98]

Could it be the Trump tax measure causing the USA to go another $1,500,000,000,000 in debt? Lot of bonds needed for that. 

[janclaes47]

16 minutes ago, Mac98 said:

Could it be the Trump tax measure causing the USA to go another $1,500,000,000,000 in debt? Lot of bonds needed for that. 

You probably missed that for Trumps tax law Apple alone will return 220 Billion Dollar to the US, which will benefit the US tax department with about 30 Billion in taxes, and then we talk about just 1 company.

[jerojero]

Trump is killing me..........only a short time ago.....36 to the dollar...now 32.......idiot

Invest in the USA stock market, get some of your money back. Seems it is the only thing reacting opposite to the Trump disaster train that is rolling over the USA.

[Kwasaki]

2 hours ago, timendres said:

I am a visual learner. So I needed to learn the script, because I need to "see" the word in my mind in order to remember it.

Yeah I like writing Thai and can read from a lot of the Thai sound language but don't know what it means a lot of the time so I have to ask the Mrs who tells me the nearest to English.

[Koratjohn77]

Not really it's gone up a little bit since the first time I visited here back in 2010 but not by much.  Now we live here and the dollar still goes AN EXTREMELY LONG WAY HERE. I definitely can't complain at all.  I save almost $2,000 dollars a month out of my monthly pension payments, in the states I'd barely be staying above water but here we live like royalty.  Literally 3 quarters of my monthly paycheck is disposal income.  Life's great here.  The dollar is really strong here I don't see how anyone could possibly complain.  

[Koratjohn77]

19 hours ago, Franko666 said:

Trump isn't concerned about US citizens who go overseas to spend their USD. He wants them to spend at home.

Yes but he also wants the U.S. Dollar to be strong and it is as far as I see.  I don't care where Trump wants me to spend my money that's my business where I choose to spend my USD.  Trump wants a strong economy and there won't be a strong economy if the U.S. Dollar is weak so it works out for everyone.  

[Koratjohn77]

On January 12, 2018 at 11:05 AM, Wake Up said:

The reality is Thailand is not crashing and burning and tourism is not declining as many TVF posters would like you to believe. Travel around Thailand by car. Economy is growing in every area north and south with future investments planned for the EEC and roads and rail and sky. 

 

Two things that are daily myths myths on this TVF. One is that Thailand is not doing well financially and will collapse soon.

 

Second you should never drive in Thailand. 

 

IMO once you drive Thailand especially if you are lucky to meet some educated Thai people and some village Thai people, the more you recognize the BS daily posts by some sad expats who don’t like their life and blame their personal misery on Thailand and Thai people. 

 

 

 

 

Exactly thank you!  People do post a lot of BS on here.  I retired here myself 4 years ago and the U.S. Dollar goes A VERY LONG WAY here.  I like living here life's great here and if people don't like it here they should go home.  I agree there are a lot of sad expats here.  I live here but I don't like being labeled as an "expat" because I love America.  I just also love traveling and seeing the world.  I served 20 plus years in the military in Special Operations Units so traveling has been my life.  

[poanoi]

13 hours ago, timendres said:

I had no intention of trying to appear "superior". If I was attempting that, I would have forgone the English translation and just left the Thai script for you to copy into Google Translate. I just included it for those who can read, and because it is precise. Personally, I dislike the transliterated Thai, because it is often incorrect and it is difficult to convey the critical tones. So many times, I have seen transliterated Thai in this forum and was completely incapable of determining what the person was trying to say. I realize that many people learn Thai by speaking and listening, and frankly, I am envious. But I am a visual learner. So I needed to learn the script, because I need to "see" the word in my mind in order to remember it.

i thought i was all alone

[lannarebirth]

11 hours ago, Mac98 said:

Could it be the Trump tax measure causing the USA to go another $1,500,000,000,000 in debt? Lot of bonds needed for that. 

Who knows what the deficit may be but we do know the Fed will shrink its balance sheet from the QE years and if an Infrastructure bill is in the offing that would create a lot of future bond issuance. 

[Mac98]

20 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

You probably missed that for Trumps tax law Apple alone will return 220 Billion Dollar to the US, which will benefit the US tax department with about 30 Billion in taxes, and then we talk about just 1 company.

That would be if it was returned under the new tax rate, but I believe off shore funds will be given a tax holiday of 5%, a common strategy for offshore funds, greatly reducing their tax payment to $11 billion.