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World Bank raises Thailand 2018 growth forecast to 4.1 pct

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World Bank raises Thailand 2018 growth forecast to 4.1 pct

By Reuters

 

2018-04-09T063912Z_1_UP7_RTRLXPP_2_LYNXPACKAGER.JPG.jpg

Reuters

 

BANGKOK, April 9 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy is expected to grow 4.1 percent this year, up from 3.6 percent predicted last August, as the recovery is broadening, the World Bank said on Monday.

 

While rapid export growth continues to fuelling Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, an increase in capacity utilisation and acceleration in capital goods imports suggest a nascent domestic demand recovery, the World Bank said in a statement.

 

"With economic growth exceeding 4 percent this year, for the first time since 2012, Thailand has the potential, with intensifying structural reforms, to raise productivity and grow even faster over the medium term," Ulrich Zachau, World Bank Director for Thailand, Malaysia and Regional Partnerships, said in the statement.

 

But a trade dispute between the United States and China has yet to have a big impact on Thai shipments, which should be underpinned by demand from other markets, while signs of domestic demand recovery will also help, he said.

 

Economic growth in January-March is expected to have performed better than the previous quarter, he said.

 

Last month, Thailand's central bank raised its 2018 economic growth forecast to 4.1 percent from 3.9 percent, and projected a 7 percent gain in exports, instead of 4 percent.

 

Last year, the economy expanded 3.9 percent, the fastest pace in five years, while exports rose nearly 10 percent.

 
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-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-04-09

 

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Whilst good news for Thailand sounds ominous for a post brexit pound.  

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Nascent= beginning signs of future potential !

Juntas management of the trade balance sheet must be working then, 

too bad they are leaving power at years end, or another reason to 

Stay,

so nice to hand to the new government, a  good projected  growth forecast, 

jolly good fellows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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But , but , but Prayut ...

Bad day for the haters then.

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Mostly these things don't have much to do with the politicians. Their job is to wave their arms and make us all feel good (or bad, as the case may be). Meantime, out in the real world, real people make things happen ...

 

I think that particularly applies here in Thailand. Hard to see what Prayut or his predecessors have done that's particularly good or bad for the national economy. A bit of a twist here, a bit of a tumble there, but nothing that really matters.

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19 minutes ago, BuaBS said:

But , but , but Prayut ...

Bad day for the haters then.

What the World Bank forecast of 4.1% differs with OECD and CIMBT who disagree with the forecast and warned a note of caution to many headwinds. They forecast a modest 3.8%. You really shouldn't be selective to made a stance for Prayut. I suggest that you read widely.  

 

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3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

What the World Bank forecast of 4.1% differs with OECD and CIMBT who disagree with the forecast and warned a note of caution to many headwinds. They forecast a modest 3.8%. You really shouldn't be selective to made a stance for Prayut. I suggest that you read widely.  

 

 

3.8% - modest? Many EU nations would be very pleased with that growth.

 

<off topic comment removed>

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

3.8% - modest? Many EU nations would be very pleased with that growth.

 

But of course a Shin kleptocracy would have much higher growth, with that 2.2 trillion loan being pumped straight into their pockets!

 

 

There are 195 economies in the world that you can select for comparison and I am sure you can find some who would be pleased with that growth. Anyway, I rather compare countries close to Thailand and similar stage of economic development; ASEAN. Not surprising Thailand GDP growth forecast is the lowest when all averages 6% GDP. You can chose to compare economy with Singapore at 2.5% GDP forecast but that will be rather unintelligent. 

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3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

What the World Bank forecast of 4.1% differs with OECD and CIMBT who disagree with the forecast and warned a note of caution to many headwinds. They forecast a modest 3.8%. You really shouldn't be selective to made a stance for Prayut. I suggest that you read widely.  

 

A World Bank forecast and a CIMB forecast, not too much difference the two really, after all, they're both just banks! :cheesy:

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I'm sure the TVF wall street gurus will have some good forecasts and answers....

 

but for simple me what will these World Bank Predictions lead to ?....1 US$ will give only 29 THB or less,  on the short term ?...if so, good news for their exports, but bad for anything to be imported....also  bad news for those living on foreign retirement pensions in Thailand....hope the authorities are smart enough and keep the THB low....if the THB gets to high, many will just leave the country for neighbouring ASEAN countries....

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19 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Does the term least developed and full developed meant anything to you in terms of GDP growth. 

Yes, in a downturn economy I would expect emerging markets and developing economies to perform better than fully developed ones.

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26 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Yes, in a downturn economy I would expect emerging markets and developing economies to perform better than fully developed ones.

If Thailand was to grow at 3.8-4.2% because of coups and mishandling by junta governments for the next 10-15 years, it will never reach developed status. Took Singapore 15 years at an average of 6% annually to reach their developed status. Hypotically, Thaksin GDP growth average 6-7% and if his government continued to govern with his economic vision, Thailand would have become a developed country by now.

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