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BANGKOK 16 February 2019 21:31
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Majority of Americans say Trump should agree to interview with Mueller - poll

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7 hours ago, attrayant said:

Professional polling organizations know how to properly weight their poll responses to ensure they get a sample that accurately represents the population as a whole.  It's never a perfect representation, which is why polls have margins of error.

in this day and age of division, bias, etc... i have a hard time believing it.  many 'professional' organizations have a bias.  as i said in my post, 60% seems reasonable but i still question the pollsters and why they can't give out more info.

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10 minutes ago, buick said:

in this day and age of division, bias, etc... i have a hard time believing it.  many 'professional' organizations have a bias.  as i said in my post, 60% seems reasonable but i still question the pollsters and why they can't give out more info.

Here's a link to a site that evaluates pretty much all the pollsters based on past performance and methodology:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

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20 minutes ago, buick said:

60% seems reasonable but i still question the pollsters and why they can't give out more info.

 

Just out of curiosity, what info would you like to see?

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14 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Here's a link to a site that evaluates pretty much all the pollsters based on past performance and methodology:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

that is a great link, thanks for the info.  it is good to see a firm tracking the various pollster's accuracy.  it does appear that this relates to elections rather than a position on an issue.  obviously, the outcome of the election can be compared to the poll prior to the election.  but in this case, it isn't possible to do something like that. 

 

if trump's approval rating is 40% (i'm not sure where it is now, it might be lower than that) and this poll says 60% are in favor of an interview with mueller, does it really tell us anything ?  the division in american politics makes it nearly impossible for a democrat to say anything positive about a republican and vice versa.  any question about trump will likely lead to a number similar to this poll.

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14 hours ago, attrayant said:

Just out of curiosity, what info would you like to see?

did they ask the person polled what party they favored/voted for in the last election ?  that info would be helpful, certainly be more helpful than disclosing the state in which the person resides (which i don't think they did).

 

i tend to think the results/conclusions of various opinion polls and surveys are developed before the actual poll/survey is taken.  then, they go ahead and make the numbers fit their conclusion.  if they can't do that, they don't publish the poll/survey.

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18 minutes ago, buick said:

that is a great link, thanks for the info.  it is good to see a firm tracking the various pollster's accuracy.  it does appear that this relates to elections rather than a position on an issue.  obviously, the outcome of the election can be compared to the poll prior to the election.  but in this case, it isn't possible to do something like that. 

 

if trump's approval rating is 40% (i'm not sure where it is now, it might be lower than that) and this poll says 60% are in favor of an interview with mueller, does it really tell us anything ?  the division in american politics makes it nearly impossible for a democrat to say anything positive about a republican and vice versa.  any question about trump will likely lead to a number similar to this poll.

It's about their past record and methodology. Not about what they're polling. But of course since people mostly don't vote on issues, except for referendums, there will be more objective data on political races. 

Edited by bristolboy

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16 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

It's about their past record and methodology

i clicked on the link 'read more' and all it talked about was elections.  i don't think it is possible to rate a firm on their past record of opinion polls.  but methodology could be rated.  i do see the column that notes political races called correctly and the grade they are given doesn't always correspond to how well they did on calling races (one firm got 88% correct but got an F !!!).  so methodology must be the other measure.

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here is a poll on the recent summit.  i don't want us all to get going on the topic of the summit again.  i'm just putting this out there as an example of what looks like a 'clean' poll.  they provide some decent data on who was polled, etc...

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-north-korea-summit-popular_us_5b22b5a2e4b0a0a52779b565

 

some excerpts:

 

Generally speaking, Trump’s opponents tend to be more united in their opprobrium for his actions than his supporters are in their enthusiasm. That’s not the case with this issue. A near-universal 96 percent of Trump voters approve of the meeting, while barely over half of Hillary Clinton voters disapprove. 

 

Most Americans don’t spend a lot of time focusing on the details of foreign policy, which can make polling on it highly dependent on question wording and other context clues.  The latest polling offers reason to think that the public’s enthusiasm for the summit is likely founded more on principle than the details of the meeting. [so here it sounds like folks might opine based on party, rather than issue]

 

In Monmouth’s survey, more than half of those polled hadn’t heard that Trump had agreed to suspend the United States’ regular joint military exercises with South Korea after this meeting. Although two-thirds of the respondents to the HuffPost/YouGov poll say they followed news of the meeting at least somewhat closely, only one-quarter reported paying very close attention. [monmouth got an A+ in the link about polling firms, but it sounds like many americans might be more focused on their job and family and not so much politics]

 

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On 6/22/2018 at 3:05 PM, jcsmith said:

If he has committed no crime, and truly wants to clear his name... he should do the interview. He said he would months ago. The only reason for him not to take this interview is if he is in fear of incriminating himself, or if he is such a pathological liar that he knows he can not tell the truth and will commit perjury. Either way, a guy who won't give an interview for those reasons really should not be allowed to run the most powerful nation in the world. 

As directed by the Constitution, a presidential candidate must be a natural born citizen of the United States, a resident for 14 years, and 35 years of age or older.  Failing to give an interview is not mentioned.

Edited by Kelsall
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29 minutes ago, Kelsall said:

As directed by the Constitution, a presidential candidate must be a natural born citizen of the United States, a resident for 14 years, and 35 years of age or older.  Failing to give an interview is not mentioned.

Maybe you haven't noticed, but for the moment the questions are about morality, not legality.

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Regarding statistical analysis. It is all about probabilities. Ever bet on sporting events? I used to like the ponies. Used a statistical analysis service and a wise betting strategy. Did very well for a few years until my analyst retired and I couldn't find anyone as good/thorough. Definitely no guarentees tho.

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irrelevant  he will only tell what his supporter like to hear........alternativ facts.....and if not who will believe him......

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6 hours ago, buick said:

did they ask the person polled what party they favored/voted for in the last election ?  that info would be helpful, certainly be more helpful than disclosing the state in which the person resides (which i don't think they did).

 

Basically you want to second-guess the polling firm?  Why?  That's analogous to asking to see Richard Feynman's data on his research in the superfluidity of supercooled liquid helium, just so you can check to make sure he's doing it right.  Why not just let professionals do their jobs?

 

Anyone who thinks they can do better, either by improving their sampling methods or selection criteria is free to start their own polling firm.  If you're more accurate, you'll become an industry leader and make lots of money in the process.  If your methods and results are crap, you'll meet your well-deserved fate.

 

Quote

i tend to think the results/conclusions of various opinion polls and surveys are developed before the actual poll/survey is taken.  then, they go ahead and make the numbers fit their conclusion.  if they can't do that, they don't publish the poll/survey.

 

Why do you "tend to think" this? Do you have any evidence to back it up?  If what you say is true, why do polling firms even bother calling anybody at all?  Just make up a fake poll that says what you need it to say and publish it.  A firm that was publishing polls and then suddenly stopped publishing (because they got a bad one) would draw all kinds of speculative grief that would harm their interest, and the interest of whomever paid for the polling.

 

I recommend you stop worrying about individual pollsters and let the professionals cross-check each other.

 

 

 

 

Edited by attrayant

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As I see it, there is no way in hell Trump's lawyers will allow him to be questioned by Mueller.   There is no upside to doing so and they know that Trump can't complete a sentence without lying.  

Edited by metisdead
Bold font removed again. Please stop using bold font when posting.

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