'Not Working' – Doubts Raised Over Tham Luang Cave Rescue Plan

[impulse]

Have there been any updates to the reports that the kids had heard birds and other animals while they were waiting to be rescued? 

 

The theories discussed were natural openings, or hallucinations by the kids.  I haven't seen any new information...

 

[chrisinth]

2 minutes ago, MaxLee said:

 

Nobody in power and high status wants to lose face, and that's EXACTLY the problem here, that's why the authorities play the waiting game....

Yep, fully understand that aspect of it. Which was why I mentioned that a veto should be available to the experts and not specifically those in 'public relation' roles.

 

That is, by the way, not undermining the importance of the public relations side of things. Even though the Governor, K.Narongsak Osotthanakorn had been already told he was being replaced, I cannot for the life of me understand why they didn't allow him to finish this operation. IMO, he was the right person for the job with his direct, no BS approach to things. Perhaps he would have had the balls to make an expert-backed decision?

[Peterw42]

This clip is doing the rounds on facebook, shows just how tight it is in sections.

 

 

 

[Timwin]

There are no roads for heavy machinery drilling gear, it is all jungle. Those machines weight tens of tons. 

[TonyClifton]

14 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

This clip is doing the rounds on facebook, shows just how tight it is in sections.

 

 

 

Whomever that is has bigger balls than me.  I want to die on a beach eating a sandwich, not alone in a water-filled tunnel.

[Cake Monster]

IMHO, there really is only one option available to the rescue team.

That is to give the kids some lessons in basic diving and practice so they are not so scared of the dark.

Also give each child a mentor - someone they will trust.

Equip each child with a neoprene suit and a face mask

This will take a few days in which time the kids will be getting stronger and more confident in the diving etc

Then, one by one with their mentor to guide and encourage them attach the child to a " buddy line " for Air and security, and then slowly bring the child out with SEALS and Rescue guys every 25 or so Meters along the route so the kids know they are safe.

Once the first child is out and relays to his buddies " hey its a bit scary, but the people will take good care of you, and you wont come to any harm " the rest will follow confidently

The rescue guys just need to find the Kingpin lad that the others look up to, and persuade him to go first.

Now is the most critical time for the kids, and everybody involved needs to think clearly, and with only one thought - the welfare of the children, and put all ideas of " Celebrity Status and Face " to bed.

It really is not required at this time 

[Eric Loh]

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/specialist-british-cavers-join-thai-cave-rescue-operation/news-story/c199107b9c1c9f8ef1e7faaa98da3182

 

Elon Musk offer to help with high intensity pumps and boring expertise and equipment.

[Eric Loh]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/elon-musk-s-team-is-talking-with-thai-officials-for-cave-rescue

 

 

[Cake Monster]

3 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/specialist-british-cavers-join-thai-cave-rescue-operation/news-story/c199107b9c1c9f8ef1e7faaa98da3182

 

Elon Musk offer to help with high intensity pumps and boring expertise and equipment.

Hey ! These people need all the help they can get rightnow

[TonyClifton]

Just now, Cake Monster said:

Hey ! These people need all the help they can get rightnow

No, they don't.  They have air.  They have food and water, and there are no medical emergencies.  This need to DO SOMETHING will get children killed.

 

I say wait it out and let them walk out the way they came in.

 

[Eric Loh]

Just now, Cake Monster said:

Hey ! These people need all the help they can get rightnow

They certainly do but it tells a more serious and complex rescue operation. If they still soliciting help meant they are not comfortable with the plans at hand. This looks like a long drawn out operation. 

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, TonyClifton said:

No, they don't.  They have air.  They have food and water, and there are no medical emergencies.  This need to DO SOMETHING will get children killed.

 

I say wait it out and let them walk out the way they came in.

 

It's just not that black and white.

If they do stay even with food, they risk being flooded out in their ledge, disease risk, and yes oxygen may also be a big problem. 

 

[TonyClifton]

Just now, Jingthing said:

It's just not that black and white.

If they do stay even with food, they risk being flooded out in their ledge, disease risk, and yes oxygen may also be a big problem. 

 

What disease?  Air and water can be managed.  It would take some time to bore out a hole large enough to allow escape, but a hole to pump oxygen would take much less time.

[Jingthing]

Just now, TonyClifton said:

What disease?  Air and water can be managed.  It would take some time to bore out a hole large enough to allow escape, but a hole to pump oxygen would take much less time.

Infections from being in caves. Google it. 

If heavy rains come, which they will, it's more than possible that even with the pumping, the water will continue to rise.

That ledge is it. 
It's either there, drowning, or boats (which they don't have).

You don't know oxygen can be managed but I reckon they are thinking about that hole for oxygen as well. 

If it was a sure thing to let them wait it out, there wouldn't be this frantic search for other options.

Again, this is not black and white. 

[TonyClifton]

Just now, Jingthing said:

Infections from being in caves. Google it. 

If heavy rains come, which they will, it's more than possible that even with the pumping, the water will continue to rise.

That ledge is it. 
It's either there, drowning, or boats (which they don't have).

You don't know oxygen can be managed but I reckon they are thinking about that hole for oxygen as well. 

If it was a sure thing to let them wait it out, there wouldn't be this frantic search for other options.

Again, this is not black and white. 

It's a shit sandwich.  No one said it was going to taste good no matter what spread you put in it.

[africasiaeuro]

Two things :

1. Elong Musk has proposed a new method and he is ready to help ( His method sounds plausible ) : read under https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44735412

2. The U.S. has much experience in pumping out large volumes of water. There are pumps that can accomplish the task within hours depending on the size and what is practically possible. These pumps can move 15 Olympic size swimming pools in a minute : Cost maybe a factor : https://gizmodo.com/5800072/the-worlds-largest-water-pump-moves-15-olympic-sized-swimming-pools-every-minute

 

However, when it comes to rescue the Thai government can do better than what is shown now.

 

An Antonov or Galaxy can lift the pump to ChiangMai Airport. Special trailers will bring it to Chiangrai. Two Chinooks combined will lift it to the position it needs to be, as well as ancillary equipment like fuel tanks ( these pumps will gobble 5000 Gls an hour of fuel ) Smaller pumps can do. Wartsilla Diesel manufactures such pumps.

 

However, the U.S. Army has enough pioneers to move such equipment within days.

 

I would give them 3 days at the most to set all up. Then it may depend on the government to authorize such huge logistics operation on their soil.

 

But someone within the Thai gov has to reach out and ask D. Trump who won't say no.

 

 

 

 

 

[Jingthing]

It's a shit sandwich.  No one said it was going to taste good no matter what spread you put in it.

----

It is indeed. 

[TonyClifton]

3 minutes ago, africasiaeuro said:

However, the U.S. Army has enough pioneers to move such equipment within days.

The US ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS can do anything.  Hell, they can even move mountains.

[Cake Monster]

Yes ! The Thai Government do have to reach out, and forget about " face " 

And thats not just for the kind gesture of Mr. Musk

[Jingthing]

Is that Musk idea even feasible, and if so, how long would it take to get installed? 

[Artisi]

24 minutes ago, africasiaeuro said:

Two things :

1. Elong Musk has proposed a new method and he is ready to help ( His method sounds plausible ) : read under https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44735412

2. The U.S. has much experience in pumping out large volumes of water. There are pumps that can accomplish the task within hours depending on the size and what is practically possible. These pumps can move 15 Olympic size swimming pools in a minute : Cost maybe a factor : https://gizmodo.com/5800072/the-worlds-largest-water-pump-moves-15-olympic-sized-swimming-pools-every-minute

 

However, when it comes to rescue the Thai government can do better than what is shown now.

 

An Antonov or Galaxy can lift the pump to ChiangMai Airport. Special trailers will bring it to Chiangrai. Two Chinooks combined will lift it to the position it needs to be, as well as ancillary equipment like fuel tanks ( these pumps will gobble 5000 Gls an hour of fuel ) Smaller pumps can do. Wartsilla Diesel manufactures such pumps.

 

However, the U.S. Army has enough pioneers to move such equipment within days.

 

I would give them 3 days at the most to set all up. Then it may depend on the government to authorize such huge logistics operation on their soil.

 

But someone within the Thai gov has to reach out and ask D. Trump who won't say no.

 

 

 

 

 

Easy to see you haven't installed anything larger than a bicycle tyre pump.

Where are the thousands of kilowatts of power coming from, where will the pump be installed to drain what in effect is 3? seperate areas without all the other minor problems to be overcome. 

[NanLaew]

3 hours ago, Artisi said:

The cave level will only rise to the flood level external to the cave, ...

Not if the ingress of rain and flood water from open fissures and channels above the cave system exceeds the rate of drainage through channels below the cave system. Some of the chambers are more than 10 m high and then some of the passages to the next chamber are only a meter wide.

 

Analogous to a blocked drain, it can back up and fill the cave system.

 

From the article referenced in the OP: "Yesterday, a team of bird nest hunters and cliff climbing experts were urgently called back to the operation by the military to explore shafts for an alternative escape.

 

Today, helicopters have also been flying over area throughout the day, suggesting more attention could be placed on finding a direct way to reach the boys from above the cave."

 

Looks like the drilling option was possibly dismissed prematurely lost in the exuberance of the rescue divers finding them all alive. That probably gave some a rather grandiose dream of the healthy fed and watered kids simply walking out of the entrance to face the word media in few days time? 

 

AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN.

 

A Thai TV channel this afternoon was showing a Japanese television show analysing this 'kids dive out' scenario. Some of the flooded channels are over 400 m long but relatively shallow and some are only maybe 15 m long but 5 m deep, ie. one has to dive down to over 5 m to get under and around the overhead rock intrusion, then dive up again. They also did a simple fish tank, added dirt and submerged a webcam to illustrate that one couldn't see 10 cm in front of your face.

 

Now a volunteer rescue diver, a fomer RTN demolitions team (SEAL) member has died while diving in the flooded cave system. Sobering stuff.

 

For me drilling is the ONLY safe and viable solution but the lead time drills require needs to be recognized and proper surface reconnaissance re-started immediately.

[tropo]

8 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

This clip is doing the rounds on facebook, shows just how tight it is in sections.

 

 

 

Is this the Tham Luang Cave Complex? I heard 2 parts are too narrow for divers wearing tanks, but had no idea it was that tight. Just watching that gives me claustrophobia and makes me break out in a sweat. I wouldn't fit there. You'd have to be Thai or a skinny Farang person to fit.

[chickenslegs]

18 minutes ago, tropo said:

Is this the Tham Luang Cave Complex? I heard 2 parts are too narrow for divers wearing tanks, but had no idea it was that tight. Just watching that gives me claustrophobia and makes me break out in a sweat. I wouldn't fit there. You'd have to be Thai or a skinny Farang person to fit.

I think it's been established that it is not the Tham Luang Cave Complex (apparently, it's video from a cave rescue training course in the Wookey Hole caves, UK), but it does give some indication about the tight spaces/turns involved.

 

It's the stuff of nightmares.

 

 

[tropo]

7 hours ago, TonyClifton said:

No, they don't.  They have air.  They have food and water, and there are no medical emergencies.  This need to DO SOMETHING will get children killed.

 

I say wait it out and let them walk out the way they came in.

 

Even staying could get the children killed. Oxygen levels have dropped to 15% in the cave, which is borderline for oxygen deprivation and causes physical stress such as increased heart rate. Also, heavy flooding could possibly fill the cave right up. That's a very disturbing unknown.

[sanemax]

5 minutes ago, tropo said:

Even staying could get the children killed. Oxygen levels have dropped to 15% in the cave, which is borderline for oxygen deprivation and causes physical stress such as increased heart rate. Also, heavy flooding could possibly fill the cave right up. That's a very disturbing unknown.

They have an air supply and the cave doesnt fill up with water when it rains

[TonyClifton]

2 minutes ago, tropo said:

Even staying could get the children killed. Oxygen levels have dropped to 15% in the cave, which is borderline for oxygen deprivation and causes physical stress such as increased heart rate. Also, heavy flooding could possibly fill the cave right up. That's a very disturbing unknown.

It's a shit sandwich.  I never said otherwise. I fear that some of these kids will die if not all of them.

[tropo]

3 minutes ago, sanemax said:

They have an air supply and the cave doesnt fill up with water when it rains

If they have an air supply, why are the stressing about falling oxygen levels in the cave? The only air supply they have is tank air. No one knows if the cave can fill up or not.

 

From a report just in:

 

"Rescuers are currently in a race against time to evacuate the boys as oxygen levels inside the area of the cave where they are trapped have decreased significantly in recent days."

[sanemax]

Just now, tropo said:

If they have an air supply, why are the stressing about falling oxygen levels in the cave? The only air supply they have is tank air. No one knows if the cave can fill up or not.

They had an air supply pipe installed yestoday

[tropo]

2 minutes ago, sanemax said:

They had an air supply pipe installed yestoday

Yet all the reports I've read from Friday evening are talking about falling air quality in the cave, so either they didn't get the news about this air pipe you speak of, or it hasn't been installed yet. There are lots of conflicting reports all over the show.