Even at 38 baht to the pound most retirees won’t and cannot leave Thailand

[Maradona 10]

Dan - The world's most boring man.

[Fat Prophet]

1 hour ago, robblok said:

Care to take a wager on that one ? To have a strong economy your currency has to be low to be competitive. You also need to be part of a big trading block then you get better deals.. guess what the UK leaves a big trading block and your higher rate is not good for the economy. So I guess your predicting is not going to come true.

 

Maybe a small wager would be in order ?

Some of your statements are correct, but applied totally incorrectly. The UK never joined the Monetary Union (MU) and has always had an independent Pound, and it has maintained its (unjustified) strength until recently. Germany, on the other hand, joined the MU and has used the Euro as its official/legal currency, and has benefitted greatly in manufacturing/trade and exports as a result, as the Euro has been weakened by the poorly managed PIIGS economies. So, at the moment, UK exports and trade is growing (and imports are reducing) thanks to the weaker Pound -- expect that to continue.  Expat living is like living totally on imported goods, which hurts -- feel the pain. Their solution is to stop buying foreign produced good (imports) and go home.

 

And when the UK leaves the EU, it will withdraw from the EU Trade Agreement, which may have some unfortunate consequences. But it will be replaced with bilateral trade agreements with each of the EU countries or groups of countries, and could be as good (or better) that the EU Trade Agreement from the UK perspective. Indeed, being a part of the EU has not provided great trading benefit to the UK. As reported numerous places, the UK's trade with the EU had been declining rapidly over the past 10 years, and has fallen to about 44% from its previous high of 55%.

 

The real reason for the drop in the value of the Pound is the fear of the unknown, and what "life after Brexit" will be like. And the UK's one foot in, and one foot out approach to the EU really hasn't provided much benefit (or cost) to the UK, so economic fundamentals suggest that the UK and the Pound will return to normal after an unpleasant transitionary period. So, the long term view for the UK post Brexit should be positive, contrary to what I think you are suggesting.   

[robblok]

3 minutes ago, Fat Prophet said:

Some of your statements are correct, but applied totally incorrectly. The UK never joined the Monetary Union (MU) and has always had an independent Pound, and it has maintained its (unjustified) strength until recently. Germany, on the other hand, joined the MU and has used the Euro as its official/legal currency, and has benefitted greatly in manufacturing/trade and exports as a result, as the Euro has been weakened by the poorly managed PIIGS economies. So, at the moment, UK exports and trade is growing (and imports are reducing) thanks to the weaker Pound -- expect that to continue.  Expat living is like living totally on imported goods, which hurts -- feel the pain. Their solution is to stop buying foreign produced good (imports) and go home.

 

And when the UK leaves

 

3 minutes ago, Fat Prophet said:

 

The real reason for the drop in the value of the Pound is the fear of the unknown, and what "life after Brexit" will be like. And the UK's one foot in, and one foot out approach to the EU really hasn't provided much benefit (or cost) to the UK, so economic fundamentals suggest that the UK and the Pound will return to normal after an unpleasant transitionary period. So, the long term view for the UK post Brexit should be positive, contrary to what I think you are suggesting.   

That is what you think, my principles are sound.. maybe what your saying is right too. Who knows if I knew for sure id be able to make loads of money. So would you.. I guess we both don't know for sure but lets see who is right. .

 

Your missing a few thing you said trade with EU has dropped.. but its not just the EU.. because UK was in the EU they got a lot of trade. Now they need to make the same agreements again but are in a weaker position as they are not part of a huge trade block. The UK is nothing much actually if you look at a global scale. The EU has far more power to get good trading rights so in most cases get better deals. There might be some wiggle room for the UK as they are now more flexible to make deals.. but I doubt it will make up for what they had. 

 

Sorry for messing up the quotes.. anyway.. we will have to wait and see.. but it cant be denied that it lost almost 20% of its value.

[sanemax]

The falling Pound just means that you have to make cut-backs .

When my GF walked out (once again) I locked the doors behind her this time.

No GF ,7/11 beers on the bench and Youporn and I am actually now better off than before

 

[baansgr]

CPI is already up and will again next month, so a good pension increase in September will be due with a further increase in interest rates. Compounded over the years, even at 38 for a short while isnt a loss. Be positive. Cut your clothe for the short time. Drinkers, eek out the happy hours and discount bars, those looking for adult entertainment just offer less...lets not forget that side of Thai industry is suffering so all is negotiable. Cook at home....lots of ways to make those pennies last?

[billd766]

22 hours ago, vogie said:

I am talking about expats that live in Thailand too, if you have been following any of the brexit threads you would realise it's not all about money, that said nobody likes to take a drop in ones lifestyle but some think what is best for our country is paramount.

I have read your reply again and I appologise if this doesn't answer it.

 

It answers it for me.

[billd766]

15 hours ago, Phuket Man said:

The racist brexiteers have got a lot to answer for.

Wrecked the country and put a lot of people in deep doodah

 

Thank you very much for calling me a racist.

 

Now back it up with some facts.

[baansgr]

15 hours ago, Phuket Man said:

The racist brexiteers have got a lot to answer for.

Wrecked the country and put a lot of people in deep doodah

Oh dear, half the UK must be racist....time to leave this thread

[alant]

On 8/17/2018 at 12:35 PM, robblok said:

I wonder how many of the Brexit supporters (expats) would still support Brexit at 38 to the pound.

You are assuming the cause of the problem is Brexit. I believe Brexit is being used as an excuse by the speculators to make money whilst the Remain camp continue with their doomed message. They are assisted by a certain Mr Carney who either has no skills and or has no wish to support the £.

The reduction in the value of the £ is happening whilst we are a part of the EU, I see no reason to therefor change my hope that we exit the EU.

[GAZZPA]

On August 17, 2561 BE at 12:51 PM, KiChakayan said:

If I was in this situation I'd have a thorough look at some European countries, Portugal in particular. But only for guys without a family. And the option may go after Brexit.

dont think the option will go fella,, one thing that Britiain and the EU must maintain is freedom of movement. Absolutely no choice in the matter in my opinion. Anyway, the pound is unusually low against the baht, it has dropped since the financial crisis in 2008 and never recovered properly. Brexit will come and brexit will go. The UK economy will ride the waves as it always does. London is still the finical capital of Europe and its not going to change. So, I am no expert but i suspect post Brexit the pound will hover around 53 to 55 baht. At the end of the day if your chose to retire to a foreign country you have to ride the exchange rate, sometimes good, sometimes bad. If you are retired, nothing you can do so no point on worrying, just put your feet up and do exactly what your supposed to be doing, taking it easy.....

[BritManToo]

40 minutes ago, sanemax said:

The falling Pound just means that you have to make cut-backs .

When my GF walked out (once again) I locked the doors behind her this time.

No GF ,7/11 beers on the bench and Youporn and I am actually now better off than before

 

I estimate the 'live in' Thai girl accounted for 60% of my total expenditure.

All those living on 20k are single, those with a woman need at least 50k.

[KittenKong]

3 hours ago, robblok said:

Care to take a wager on that one ? To have a strong economy your currency has to be low to be competitive. You also need to be part of a big trading block then you get better deals..

I'm not sure that Switzerland would entirely agree with that. Norway may disagree also.

 

Britain, unfortunately, is not in their league.

[JAS21]

If it gets down to 25 Mrs J will have to play less golf ... could be like Hell on Earth ...

[Andrew65]

On 8/17/2018 at 6:40 AM, robblok said:

My mistake i think you might be right. 

Mel Gibson has Irish and American citizenship, he's no more Australian than I am. (Not that that's a problem!).

[Chivas]

The days of Thailand being cheap for anything no matter what the exchange rate were over as the internet started to take off roughly 20 years ago as forums started and knowledge became very accessible

[Andrew65]

3 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

 

 

I think maths also wasn't Dan's favourite subject at school

45k a month's easily do-able...........................if you're single and not screwing-around! (Or spending 1k Baht a day on booze, as I used to).

 

Rent can be got for 7k a month, food about the same.

 

Part of the point being that you're not gonna to afford running around places like Soi Cowboy etc.

[Blue bruce]

If you can't afford to live in Thailand where are you going to go ?????

[Andrew65]

1 minute ago, Blue bruce said:

If you can't afford to live in Thailand where are you going to go ?????

...............Cambodia!!

 

 

...the 3 P's, in that order: Pattaya: Phnom Penh: Pyongyang!! (Skid-row!)???

[VBF]

1 hour ago, Kwasaki said:

Health Insurance is something to have when older.

Which is the time when it becomes both harder to get and more expensive if you can find it!

[sanemax]

15 minutes ago, Chivas said:

The days of Thailand being cheap for anything no matter what the exchange rate were over as the internet started to take off roughly 20 years ago as forums started and knowledge became very accessible

Thailand is still cheap for many things : Food, clothes, travel , accommodation .

Still much cheaper here than back in the UK .

  

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, transam said:

But the insurance company replied to ol' Trans ..."Bugger off"....I replied.."TVForum  who ban you for that reply"....?

You make concessions when discussing a health policy cover with a insurance company that will insure you.

[Andrew65]

1 minute ago, sanemax said:

Thailand is still cheap for many things : Food, clothes, travel , accommodation .

Still much cheaper here than back in the UK .

  

Nah, I just moved back to the UK. Rent, about the same (in BKK). Food, toiletries etc in UK supermarket, 1/2 or 1/3 of Thai supermarket prices ( cheddar cheese is about £10/lb in Bangkok, £2/lb in Asda/UK).

 

The same/comparable clothes, about same-same.

 

Computers & peripherals, same-same.

 

A pint of lager in a UK pub (regular price, not happy hour), around £3.30 (138 Baht) average.

 

I was here first in 1985 when Thailand was dirt-cheap (and still a much poorer country than it is today). Since then it's like we keep on unthinkingly saying Thailand's "so cheap", whilst it's getting gradually more expensive.

[CGW]

4 hours ago, robblok said:

You also need to be part of a big trading block then you get better deals.. guess what the UK leaves a big trading block and your higher rate is not good for the economy. So I guess your predicting is not going to come true.

I read something similar recently, believe it originated from a PR "machine" churning out reasons for people to buy into globalism, fully financed by those who would profit the most - off course ? 

Unelected officials would control this cartel, for which they would be very well reimbursed, some actually fell for this BS  Unbelievable isn't it.........................?

[Kwasaki]

24 minutes ago, VBF said:

Which is the time when it becomes both harder to get and more expensive if you can find it!

Well my Thai wife sorted it after I was in hospital and got cover for me at 67 yr.old.

[connda]

Not to worry.  With Trump attempting to implode Turkey, the resultant contagious looks like it may spread to the emerging markets.  Thais as well as their banks are overextended with debt regardless of how healthy the Thai central bank claims their banks to be.  So if emerging markets become a route, you just may see your GBP go back up in value significantly. 

[CGW]

18 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Thailand is still cheap for many things : Food, clothes, travel , accommodation .

Still much cheaper here than back in the UK .

Food is more expensive in Thailand, unless you eat poor quality local produce, clothes - no idea, don't buy enough for it to matter, travel, 99% of my travel is by car - cars are much more expensive here, gas cheaper, housing definitely cheaper - but the big thing here is Taxes! there is no personal taxation for retirees. ? 

[VBF]

1 minute ago, Kwasaki said:

Well my Thai wife sorted it after I was in hospital and got cover for me at 67 yr.old.

Good for you!  ? As you, and she have proved, it's not impossible, but certainly more of a challenge than when you were 47.

 

[janclaes47]

36 minutes ago, Andrew65 said:

3 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

 

 

I think maths also wasn't Dan's favourite subject at school

45k a month's easily do-able...........................if you're single and not screwing-around! (Or spending 1k Baht a day on booze, as I used to).

 So you think It's easily doable to get 45.000 Baht for 1069 GBP when the exchange rate is 38 Baht to the pound?

 

That is what Dan quoted.

[Andrew65]

2 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Well my Thai wife sorted it after I was in hospital and got cover for me at 67 yr.old.

I think 70 is when it tends to rise a lot. Maybe there are good deals to be had in LOS though?

 

He had a pre-existing heart condition, but a Brit friend was paying £8k pa for health insurance. Another old (84) mate was here earlier in the year, cost him almost £2k for health/travel insurance for a 2 month visit.

[NorfolkBoy]

For Many of us living on an extension to stay based upon marriage, the main worry is not the cost of living here but the need to show 40,00 baht income to support a Thai wife. it is a big leap to find the lump sum to make up the income for a retirement visa

 

Here's hoping for an upturn!

 

Norfolkboy