Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[GroveHillWanderer]

1 hour ago, Kim J said:

If we have a re run of a referendum that will be the end of democracy as we know it.

Yes, because as we all know, once you've had a democratic vote about something, it can never, ever be changed. That's why the UK doesn't regularly hold new, democratic elections every couple of years where people can vote to change how the country is to be governed - oh, wait a minute ...

[evadgib]

3 hours ago, samran said:

Don’t forget you’ll also get your bendy bananas and blue passports back. 

 

Yep, locking yourselves out of the worlds biggest free trade area, so you can spend the next decade at least renegotiating a bunch of second and third tier suboptimal ‘free’ trade agreements adjudicated by opaque arbitration panels is well worth it. 

A significant number have already been set up and are just waiting for the starting gun to be fired on 29th March...

[evadgib]

2 hours ago, Kim J said:

Mark Carney and the Bank of England, along with countless others told a pack of lies repeatedly pre referendum. They were subsequently seen for what they were, why do they think anything they now say on the subject of Brexit will have any credibility with the public?

I fully understand not everyone chose to leave the EU but the fact remains the majority that voted did do. Mark Carney and everyone else, including all politicians should have got behind that decision and worked collectively to respect that vote and get the best from it for the country, rather than following their own personal agenda's.

Given Mark Carney is not even British, If the situation he now finds himself is so unacceptable to him, he is free to relinquish his post and return to where he came from.

Or once he has got everything he possibly can from this particular pie he has his finger in, has he got his eyes on a place with the ECB?

One of the perks he's picked up while in the job was that he IS now British, according to Andrew Pearce on Sky this morning.

[dunroaming]

It should have been very straightforward.  At the referendum it was laid out what we would achieve by leaving the EU against not leaving which effectively meant everything remains the same.  People looked at what they were told would happen if we voted out and voted accordingly.  So far so good and the leavers narrowly won the vote which should have meant that those pledges were instrumented.  In reality those pledges were not delivered and it became apparent that what people voted for was not going to be delivered.  For some reason many (but certainly not all) Brexiteers feel that although they are not going to get what they voted for they are fine with whatever deal the government fobs them off with as long as we are out, even though we will all be far worse off.

 

You would expect my next line would be calling for a second referendum but I don't think we should have one at all.  What I would argue for would be a peoples vote on whether they will accept the deal proposed given that it doesn't match in any way what they voted for originally. If it is parliament alone that get's that vote then it will not be the voice of the Brexiteers who have been betrayed, but politically motivated posturing.

 

As it is if parliament reject May's deal then we are exposed to a no-deal or no-Brexit outcome.  Therefore I would say to those who at adamant that people have had their say and don't now have a voice, will you just go along with the "possible" no-Brexit result we end up with?  Or would you prefer a say after all?    Exceptional circumstances are at play here and that should be taken into account.

[wabothai]

9 hours ago, TopDeadSenter said:

As a committed Brexiteer I take no notice of these ongoing and nonsensical threats from the establishment. Project Fear was a disaster and did not work, time to drop the negativity. To have our country back, in any shape or state, is a far better outcome than to remain in the failed experiment that is the European Union. Constant riots in France, shocking unemployment across the Spain, Portugal and Italy, porous borders and evil NGOs reeking havoc on the social cohesion across the board. Bully-boy non elected eurocrats telling us how to live and think. No. No. No. We will take a nice, fast, hard Brexit and we will be proud to be Great Britain once again.

 

See George Carlin on national pride.

[pedro01]

"But if it happened, there would be a 25 percent tumble in the value of sterling -- taking it close to parity against the dollar -- a spike in inflation to 6.5 percent from around 2.4 percent now, and a jump in interest rates. House prices would fall by 30 percent."

 

This is utter nonsense. 

 

There's nothing wrong with putting forwards estimates but to state that something WILL happen is ludicrous. But if the above does happen, UK exports will go up as the currency goes down. 

 

Not only that, I'll be cashing in USD and buying a 3rd house.

 

But the idea that they have some magical predictive model that can map outcomes without uncertainty is nonsense. Economics is complex and at best about probably outcomes. 

 

The deal on the table with the EU is terrible. The reason - that May was never prepared to walk away from the negotiating table, which put her in a weak position. 

 

We would certainly be better off staying in the EU than the deal on the table. As for hard brexit, hard to say - but there is no doubt in my mind that emergency measures will be put in place VERY close to Brexit data to ensure EU exporters can still sell into the UK. God help the UK if May is in charge of that as it'll all be one sided. 

[ivor bigun]

Congrats, Brexiteers. Good job. Well done. 

Read it properly,could ,might,maybe,its only the worst case scenario,but then on the other hand,we could,might,maybe invaded by men from Mars

Sent from my SM-A720F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[rixalex]

It should have been very straightforward.  At the referendum it was laid out what we would achieve by leaving the EU against not leaving which effectively meant everything remains the same.  People looked at what they were told would happen if we voted out and voted accordingly.  So far so good and the leavers narrowly won the vote which should have meant that those pledges were instrumented.  In reality those pledges were not delivered and it became apparent that what people voted for was not going to be delivered.  For some reason many (but certainly not all) Brexiteers feel that although they are not going to get what they voted for they are fine with whatever deal the government fobs them off with as long as we are out, even though we will all be far worse off.
 
You would expect my next line would be calling for a second referendum but I don't think we should have one at all.  What I would argue for would be a peoples vote on whether they will accept the deal proposed given that it doesn't match in any way what they voted for originally. If it is parliament alone that get's that vote then it will not be the voice of the Brexiteers who have been betrayed, but politically motivated posturing.
 
As it is if parliament reject May's deal then we are exposed to a no-deal or no-Brexit outcome.  Therefore I would say to those who at adamant that people have had their say and don't now have a voice, will you just go along with the "possible" no-Brexit result we end up with?  Or would you prefer a say after all?    Exceptional circumstances are at play here and that should be taken into account.

Say that again. You don't want another referendum but you do want a people's vote?

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[talahtnut]

In a normal world, people fight for independence.

Remaining, in a bloc of 500m with an unelected mafia

government there is the distinct possibility that the

UK will end up being the 'debt dump' for EU Banks.

When interest rates rise, they buy the UK.

UK becomes another slave colony.

 

 

[Chelseafan]

9 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I understand your point and you are right but somehow this is funny/

How many people are interested in "Cornish Clotted Cream"?

And how many would buy "Scotch" from the USA?

Firstly I doubt clotted cream has the shelf life to get to the US. You could air-freight it but then the price would be ridiculously stupid.

 

"Scotch" is just branding but the US market is so tied up with USDA quality beef that I doubt there would be a significant market for it. The US consumer is still of the mindset that any beef outside the US is probably tainted with 'Mad Cow' anyhow. Personally I would take a USDA prime Sirloin over a Scotch or Aberdeen Angus any day.

 

I've mentioned before that I am a buyer for a retail company and purchase a lot more from the US than I export back to them. They have their own "protected" market so unless barriers from the EU AND US come down they'll be very limited additional trading between the two blocs.

 

 

[Chelseafan]

8 hours ago, evadgib said:

I agree that products need to be protected

Why ? Protectionism is anti-competitive. It allows those with protective status to control the supply and demand of their product and therefore drive up prices.

 

[evadgib]

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

Why ? Protectionism is anti-competitive. It allows those with protective status to control the supply and demand of their product and therefore drive up prices.

 

Did the part that you cut out not imply same?

[StreetCowboy]

13 hours ago, TopDeadSenter said:

As a committed Brexiteer I take no notice of these ongoing and nonsensical threats from the establishment. Project Fear was a disaster and did not work, time to drop the negativity. To have our country back, in any shape or state, is a far better outcome than to remain in the failed experiment that is the European Union. Constant riots in France, shocking unemployment across the Spain, Portugal and Italy, porous borders and evil NGOs reeking havoc on the social cohesion across the board. Bully-boy non elected eurocrats telling us how to live and think. No. No. No. We will take a nice, fast, hard Brexit and we will be proud to be Great Britain once again.

 

You’re right, who cares what professionals say, let’s just go for it!

That’s why I did my own hip replacement.

[talahtnut]

14 hours ago, webfact said:

Bank warns no-deal could see UK sink into recession

By Jill Treanor, Business reporter, BBC News

 

A no-deal Brexit could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the financial crisis, the Bank of England has warned.

 

It said the UK economy could shrink by 8% in the immediate aftermath if there was no transition period, while house prices could fall by almost a third.

 

The Bank of England also warned the pound could fall by a quarter. The Bank's analysis comes after the Treasury said the UK would be worse off under any form of Brexit.

 

Full story: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46377309

 

-- © Copyright BBC 2018-11-29

 

 

The word 'could' renders the headlines as worthless.

Any words from the BBC and government serve their

agenda, not the electorate.

I wonder by how much the pound has devalued since

1973.     

[StreetCowboy]

14 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

The word 'could' renders the headlines as worthless.

Any words from the BBC and government serve their

agenda, not the electorate.

I wonder by how much the pound has devalued since

1973.     

Why do you wonder? Why do you speculate? 

Tell us how exchange rates have changed since 1973 - they are a matter of record.

Or in your War On Truth, is any fact anathema?

[dunroaming]

5 hours ago, Kim J said:

You seem to follow the Politicians view that everyone who voted to leave are in some way stupid and did so without giving it thought.

 

Personally what you describe above is exactly what I voted for and am most annoyed it did not happen ASAP post referendum.

I am not suggesting that people who voted to leave are or were stupid to do so.  I was very nearly one of them.  If you voted for a no deal outcome then I am surprised but each to their own ambitions when it comes to Brexit.  Given the absolute chaos and economic disaster it would be for the country I doubt that it will be allowed to happen but who knows?

[StreetCowboy]

Just now, dunroaming said:

I am not suggesting that people who voted to leave are or were stupid to do so.  I was very nearly one of them.  If you voted for a no deal outcome then I am surprised but each to their own ambitions when it comes to Brexit.  Given the absolute chaos and economic disaster it would be for the country I doubt that it will be allowed to happen but who knows?

It might be alright - the only people who seem bothered about it are people who have thought about it.  The time for thought is past.  

[baboon]

1 hour ago, StreetCowboy said:

You’re right, who cares what professionals say, let’s just go for it!

That’s why I did my own hip replacement.

Quite right too. The sooner London's airspace is controlled by Bangladeshi garment workers, the better off we will be...

[StreetCowboy]

12 minutes ago, baboon said:

Quite right too. The sooner London's airspace is controlled by Bangladeshi garment workers, the better off we will be...

You anarcho-socialist, you!

More likely Bangladeshi slave labour suppliers in league with our Allies' friends in the Kremlin

[baboon]

3 minutes ago, StreetCowboy said:

You anarcho-socialist, you!

What? I am an independent thinker and the Great Leader will not thank you for those words... 

[talahtnut]

11 hours ago, StreetCowboy said:

Why do you wonder? Why do you speculate? 

Tell us how exchange rates have changed since 1973 - they are a matter of record.

Or in your War On Truth, is any fact anathema?

Find your own facts, on the present UK electorates poverty

compared to 1973.   The poor are not concerned with

exchange rates, but they are concerned that the pound

buys less every week.  Nice one, in the 6th richest economy.

An economy that does not give a damn about its unfortunates

There is as you say there is a war on truth, but its not mine.

 My war is against deception.

Honest.

[samran]

14 hours ago, StreetCowboy said:

You’re right, who cares what professionals say, let’s just go for it!

That’s why I did my own hip replacement.

Indeed. Project fear was totally legitimate when it was the front page of the daily mail telling us that bendy bananas and Christmas were being cancelled by the EU.

 

Bit but when it is actual professionals with facts and stuff...well that is not tolerable! 

[Jack100]

On ‎11‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 4:19 PM, Krataiboy said:

Another propagandised and brainwashed Remainer dons the sackcloth and ashes. How pathetic. People who feel as you do should put your money and principles where your mouth is and emigrate to the EU - while you still have time.

I always laugh when I hear the 'if you don't like it emigrate ' argument  , it seems so  arrogant  and is always   the last resort of the  banana republic African dictator when the people want  otherwise  -

[bkkcanuck8]

The UK Brexiters should show the BoE who is right.... just do that hard Brexit and we will finally no longer be having to worry about possibilities... we will have real data for people to deny.

[RAZZELL]

23 hours ago, StreetCowboy said:

You’re right, who cares what professionals say, let’s just go for it!

That’s why I did my own hip replacement.

Are these the same "experts" who didn't see the last Financial crisis coming or the ones who predicted 800k job losses if we merely voted to leave?

 

When people can see into the future they can pick me some lottery numbers.

 

RAZZ

 

 

[evadgib]

 

[StreetCowboy]

17 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

The UK Brexiters should show the BoE who is right.... just do that hard Brexit and we will finally no longer be having to worry about possibilities... we will have real data for people to deny.

Exactly.  It's like Russian Roulette.  Maybe something bad will happen, but that's mere speculation.  There's only one way to find out for sure.  All this dealing in possibilities and probabilities, predictions are mere speculation.  Britain did't become Great by not shooting itself in the foot.

[talahtnut]

The EU is the new Tower of Babel,  and we know what

God did to that.

A grand conception, too big to fail, like many empires.

Already fragmenting from within, history repeats folly

after folly.

The UK is perfectly able to manage its own decline.

 

[Jack100]

Seeing the future ? the pound at 41.75 ?

[talahtnut]

28 minutes ago, Jack100 said:

Seeing the future ? the pound at 41.75 ?

Expert remain economists predict the rapid onset

of the 'Private Frazer Effect'.