Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[bristolboy]

31 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

I'm sure that if you knew something about the key issues you would give us the benefit of your much paraded intelligence and education, rather than just humourless one liners.

 

So far on a topic raised by a remainer - the way trade would work in the event of no deal - the leading lights of the remain posters on this forum have demonstrated no understanding at all - I'll rephrase that, about 10% understanding, plus the usual "humour" from yourself, and even one gentleman who is unaware that the UK is actually in the WTO.

I accept that reproach about not being aware that the UK was still in the WTO. But you continue to demonstrate your resistance to understanding that even though the UK is still a WTO member, it is still vulnerable to obstruction from members whose schedules respectively for goods and services have been accepted. Your operating assumption has been that as soon as the UK exits the EU it is automatically entitled to trade under WTO rules. This is not the case.

[bristolboy]

44 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

It's often said that Brexiters promised the easiest trade deal in the world. This is what was actually said:

 

"Coming to a free trade agreement with the EU should be "one of the easiest in human history" because our rules and laws are already the same, the international trade secretary has said.

Liam Fox is to set out his vision of the UK's trading relationship with the rest of the world after Brexit.

"The only reason we wouldn't come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics," Dr Fox told the Today programme."

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-40667879/eu-trade-deal-easiest-in-human-history

 

However Remainers characterized what Fox said, it was still nonsense based on a cherry picking view of negotiations in which the UK got to pick the cherries.

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

I've got the impression from some of your other posts that you're not from an EU country, so you may not be aware that the UK was never in schengen ayway.

 

Because the poplulace of the UK is so well informed about the issues?

[samran]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

Well all movement of people every where is controlled in some way.

 

The UK voted to return to the international norm.

 

I've got the impression from some of your other posts that you're not from an EU country, so you may not be aware that the UK was never in schengen ayway.

 

The reason that UK citizens voted to control immigration was principally the strain on public services as far as I know.

 

We've always had people with strange accents, including Brummies, Scousers, Yorkies and Americans.

And I’ve gotten the impression from your posts that you don’t know much about trade and international economics. But there you go...

 

Yes, the UK has never been part of Schengen, but what has that got to do with free movement for EU nationals?

 

They were never prevented from coming to the UK in a mostly unhindered manner. Like all EU countries however the UK reserved the right to restrict entry to EU nationals who did not comply with the free moment treaties. 

 

Being outside schengen meant meant that the UK could impose its own border checks for people entering the UK who were not EU/EEA/Swiss nationals. But free movement wasn’t meant for members not part of those three clubs, so you repeated attempts to bring up Schengen is really just a bit of a red herring as far as this conversation goes.

 

It is also interesting that you talk about ‘international norms’ when it comes to movement of people. 

 

The EU for starters has free movement - and that is hardly a tiny amount of people we are talking about. 

 

The US and Canada have a form of free movement via the TN visas under NAFTA or whatever it is called now. 

 

So do a subset of the Mercosur countries. Similarly in the Carribean there is a treaty. 

 

Australia and NZ have free movement. And even Thailand has special arrangements for Burmese, Lao and Cambodian workers.

 

So I’m not sure what these ‘international norms’ you are talking about are? In 1971 the UK swapped relatively free movement from (the mainly white) commonwealth countries to that with the EU. 

 

Post brexit the UK and Ireland will keep their common travel area (CTA) which predates the EU. Under UK Law Irish aren’t considered aliens - and that will continue.

 

Oh, and you know that Brexit Comrade no 1 has called for free moment between Australia, NZ and the UK. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/27/boris-johnson-australia-immigration

 

So I’m really interested to hear more about yours ‘international norms’. It will make a change from your passive  condescension. 

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

8 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

I accept that reproach about not being aware that the UK was still in the WTO. But you continue to demonstrate your resistance to understanding that even though the UK is still a WTO member, it is still vulnerable to obstruction from members whose schedules respectively for goods and services have been accepted. Your operating assumption has been that as soon as the UK exits the EU it is automatically entitled to trade under WTO rules. This is not the case.

and  that has been made very clear in various Brexit threads over and over again over the past

year and a half

 

[My Thai Life]

53 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

I accept that reproach about not being aware that the UK was still in the WTO. But you continue to demonstrate your resistance to understanding that even though the UK is still a WTO member, it is still vulnerable to obstruction from members whose schedules respectively for goods and services have been accepted. Your operating assumption has been that as soon as the UK exits the EU it is automatically entitled to trade under WTO rules. This is not the case.

I appeciate your interest in actually discussing some of these issues. It's far preferable to the mudslinging that dominates these political threads. 

 

I feel that you are making assumptions about my assumptions. The big difference between the way the WTO operates, and the way FTA negotiations usually operate, and the way the EU operates, is that you can operate within the WTO before final ratification. For example, if the UK and the EU issued a framework FTA schedule, they could operate on this basis as long as they were making progress towards achieving it. For political reasons this is extremely unlikely to happen of course. (The EU takes the opposite approach that "nothing is agreed until everything's agreed" - though they have reneged on that approach with the withdrawal agreement.)

 

Brexit is arguably the most significant political/economic event of our lifetimes (even more so than the dissolution of the USSR), and not just for Brits, the potential world-wide knock on from Brexit as we enter what economists believe to be a new and potentially turbulent economic phase, shouldn't be understimated . There is no precedent for Brexit. Consequently even experts are having to re-examine some trade, legal and constitutional issues.

 

I have tried to research this particular topic, and all I can really say is that those experts are not in agreement on some of the core WTO questions which have not yet been raised on this forum, and which I have no intention of raising, as there is no serious intention to discuss anything here.

 

Finally, the biggest obstacle to the UK finalising its WTO schedule is that first of all the UK needs to clarify its desired trading relationship with the EU. And it seems the UK government has made little progress even on that over the last 2 years. 

 

I've got a lot of work on my hands at the moment, so I'm not going to be able to continue this kind of discussion. If there were any real indication that people here are genuinely trying to understand complex issues I'd be happy to participate further, but there isn't.

 

Merry xmas.

[My Thai Life]

42 minutes ago, samran said:

And I’ve gotten the impression from your posts that you don’t know much about trade and international economics. But there you go...

Actually my Master's was 50% international trade, tariffs and finance. Since then I've worked in over 25 countries on major change programmes for leading multinationals and international management consultancies. 

 

My personal experience is that with the desired skills, experience, and qualifications the world is your oyster.

[samran]

12 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Actually my Master's was 50% international trade, tariffs and finance. Since then I've worked in over 25 countries on major change programmes for leading multinationals and international management consultancies. 

 

My personal experience is that with the desired skills, experience, and qualifications the world is your oyster.

Well i hope you don’t pontificate to your clients like you do here. Masters or no masters (hey I have one too and work in a similar field - if we are going to compare penis size) most of your analysis has been simplistic to date.

 

Sure you’ve managed a ‘gotcha’ moment, over the UK being a WTO member but it kind of glosses over your misunderstanding that the WTO is somehow a ‘first best’ trade body. It is a lowest common denominator trade organisation - devoted to free trade to be sure - but subject to national and regional priorities. 

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

I'm sure that if you knew something about the key issues you would give us the benefit of your much paraded intelligence and education, rather than just humourless one liners.

 

So far on a topic raised by a remainer - the way trade would work in the event of no deal - the leading lights of the remain posters on this forum have demonstrated no understanding at all - I'll rephrase that, about 10% understanding, plus the usual "humour" from yourself, and even one gentleman who is unaware that the UK is actually in the WTO.

May I suggest that you listen to the 3 blokes in a pub blog? They spent 2 days in Geneva speaking with the WTO and no it is NOT as straight forward as you imply and would introduce totally unnecessary risk to a number of our industry sectors. 

 

Here's part 1

 

 

[talahtnut]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

May I suggest that you listen to the 3 blokes in a pub blog? They spent 2 days in Geneva speaking with the WTO and no it is NOT as straight forward as you imply and would introduce totally unnecessary risk to a number of our industry sectors. 

Not 3 blokes, but 3 anti-brexiters having a jolly at

someone else's expense.   Paid so called 'experts'.

Those who control and have access to media have

access to and potential control of public opinion.

Its a crafty old Grouse! Display lekking again.

[Grouse]

10 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Not 3 blokes, but 3 anti-brexiters having a jolly at

someone else's expense.   Paid so called 'experts'.

Those who control and have access to media have

access to and potential control of public opinion.

Its a crafty old Grouse! Display lekking again.

Well it's a little difficult n'est-ce pas?

 

There aren't any Brexiter experts.

 

[melvinmelvin]

16 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Not 3 blokes, but 3 anti-brexiters having a jolly at

someone else's expense.   Paid so called 'experts'.

Those who control and have access to media have

access to and potential control of public opinion.

Its a crafty old Grouse! Display lekking again.

watched the first 30 minutes, that far presentations were fairly sober - not skewed in my view

 

too long winded for me - could do that in 10 minutes, not that keen on CH beer either

 

 

there is a much nicer eaterie/drinkerie by the lakeside and much closer

to WTO from where the blokes are sitting,

that joint has some excellent fluids (at a price)

 

[Grouse]

14 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Well it's a little difficult n'est-ce pas?

 

There aren't any Brexiter experts.

 

More experts

 

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/No-Deal-The-WTO-Option-Fact-sheet.pdf

 

Must be remainder?

[talahtnut]

27 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Well it's a little difficult n'est-ce pas?

 

There aren't any Brexiter experts.

 

Does 'bird brain' mean anything to you Grouse?

Guess who is controlling your thoughts, could it

be the billionaires that want business as usual?

Brexiters dont need experts, we need scientists,

engineers, and entrepreneurs.

[Grouse]

10 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Does 'bird brain' mean anything to you Grouse?

Guess who is controlling your thoughts, could it

be the billionaires that want business as usual?

Brexiters dont need experts, we need scientists,

engineers, and entrepreneurs.

So you don't consider engineers and scientists to be experts in their fields?

 

I am an expert in my field; well it's more of a glen than a field!

[Basil B]

Yet today's headlines: Cabinet to consider ramping up no-deal plans

Quote

The cabinet will discuss whether the government should ramp up preparations for a no-deal Brexit when it meets later this morning.

It comes after Theresa May said MPs would not vote on her Brexit deal until the third week in January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46600850

Political Suicide...

[Henryford]

12 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Yet today's headlines: Cabinet to consider ramping up no-deal plans

Political Suicide...

Not with 17.4 million voters. It would be political suicide NOT to go for No Deal.

[Basil B]

Stop the bloody nonsense now...

 

1. Retract article 50 we can resubmit when we have a clear plan of action, and whatever we decide will need a 2 year transition.
2. Parliament given 3 months to decide on which option &/or peoples vote &/or General Election.
3. No plan we remain, no more article 50 for at least 25 years as we need that time to recover from the damage done to the UK and our industries over the last 2.5 years

[Basil B]

7 minutes ago, Henryford said:

Not with 17.4 million voters. It would be political suicide NOT to go for No Deal.

<deleted>...

A lot of those votes were protest votes.

 

In actual fact in most opinion poles since show remain as preferred option.

 

And do not forget the we were told it would not be a hard brexit.

[welovesundaysatspace]

It’s really difficult understand how the U.K. would not stop the Article 50 process. They could always come back when they’re well prepared. It’s like jumping from a cliff because someone told you, and when someone offers you a parachute just before you hit the ground, you say “nah, thank you.” Not that I would want the UK back (in its current state) but that would be the only sensible to do (together with holding a referendum that has not been manipulated). 

[evadgib]

Entertaining and informative whichever side you're on...

 

[Kwasaki]

BoE Oh yeah they are always right. 

[owl sees all]

1 hour ago, Basil B said:

Stop the bloody nonsense now...

 

1. Retract article 50 we can resubmit when we have a clear plan of action, and whatever we decide will need a 2 year transition.
2. Parliament given 3 months to decide on which option &/or peoples vote &/or General Election.
3. No plan we remain, no more article 50 for at l east 25 years as we need that time to recover from the damage done to the UK and our industries over the last 2.5 years

1

Interesting.

 

"Parliament given 3 months to decide on which option &/or peoples vote &/or General Election". Who/what can make this decision; May/parliament?! These problems have arisen because May was/is a remainer.

Leave means leave. No deal; no problem.

 

Start our own European union. Based on democracy not dictatorship.

[malagateddy]

No but it IS evidence that you are humourless.
 
BTW why is it that so many Brexiters do not know the difference between intelligence and education? I blame education!

Brexiteers can certainly recognise remoaners who like to come across as oh so superior, when in fact they are but arrogant pretentious windbags[emoji6]

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[tebee]

[talahtnut]

6 hours ago, Grouse said:

So you don't consider engineers and scientists to be experts in their fields?

 

I am an expert in my field; well it's more of a glen than a field!

Keep your remaining nut down below the glen heather

Grouse, you are fair game 'till the 29th.

[Grouse]

13 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Keep your remaining nut down below the glen heather

Grouse, you are fair game 'till the 29th.

I guess you're not much good with birds.

 

Grouse closed season started over a week ago! 

[talahtnut]

8 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I guess you're not much good with birds.

 

Grouse closed season started over a week ago! 

I am, though, very good at preparing,

and stuffing them.

Sorry about the date, I must have been thinking

of the old F'kawi PM bird.

[tebee]

Brexit is enough to make you kill yourself....

 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-suicide-warning-if-exit-turns-chaotic-rjlhwb2n0

 

[ubonjoe]

A inflammatory post and replies to it have been removed.