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Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

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1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

My OP was about the German car industry's recent reaction. But out of courtesy I'll briefly reply to your off topic comments.

 

Para 1. Mitigation is a form of management - let's not waste time with semantics. The EU has already put forward a list of management points, as I said before (or mitigation points if you want to call them that).

 

Para 2. You seem to be mixing up withdrawal agreement terms with a no-deal scenario in this para, so it's hard to respond to. You also seem to be repeating Ivan Rogers words, which I'll try to respond to tomorrow if I have time. You talk of asymmetric damage as if the EU is one country; I have to remind you again - the EU is not one country. The UK is Germany's largest car export market in the world, and the German car industry is the EU's most powerful lobby group. Alliance Bernstein says Germany’s car companies are trading at levels hinting at bankruptcy risk, and that they are in no fit state to cope with a full-blown Brexit shock. I guess if you believe economics is a zero sum game you could call that leverage (in the UK's favour).

 

Para 3. Again I hear Ivan Rogers' words. Everyone agrees that May's approach has been inept. One thing that is clear is that A50 is not fit for purpose. As I've mentioned a few times now, A50 was drafted in a hurry for a completely different scenario, not for a major player like the UK.

 

Sir Ivan almost admits in his recent speech that the EU is not acting in its good faith commitment as a WTO member to avoid impediments to trade, or its legal obligations under the Vienna Convention and Article 4 of its own Lisbon Treaty. My hope is that the German car lobby brings these EU bureaucrats to heel. The punitive approach advocated by Macron and Selmayr would undoubtedly damage the German car industry at a point in time where it is particularly vulnerable, and frankly I think German Auto inc has far more real power than Macron and Selmayr dream about even in their wildest fantasies.

 

have a good evening, or morning

 

 

1: management implies they we can control this. We can't. The mitigation will rely on the goodness of others. Yes they will benefit too, but I would expect there to be a price to pay.

 

Which brings me to 2: I expect that price for this assistance to be reviving those parts of May's deal that the EU wants. Protection of it citizens, an agreement on NI  - my guess would be the post-transition arrangements agreed in the withdrawal agreement - and the UK to pay it's bills. Don't think for a moment that no deal will exonerate you from those. 

 

3: I agree, but if May and the brexiters had not been in such a hurry and thought things through first we would not be in this mess. 

 

4: my point was that the german car industry may be worried, but it doesn't need to be . 80% of our new car exports are to Europe - the people who would have bought those cars are still going to need a new car from somewhere - why not those german manufacturers?

 

You can't use good faith commitment if all they are doing is implementing existing rules  - that they may chose temporaly to relax those rules to help us is not a reason to say they should never use them.

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16 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

more remainer scare mongering ,like the year 2000 bug when all PCs were going to fail ,but it was business as usual and no PCs dropped dead..

Er not quite ,  on 1 /1 2000  I said the  same thing to a friend who worked on the bug , all a  fuss about nothing etc  - actually his reply was  - there was a problem and thousands of people worked for years  on it and fixed it  !

 

This is the Exact  opposite - there was no real threat to jobs and the economy but there is now  but NOBODY is working on it because they don't know how to fix it !

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11 hours ago, Chartist said:

 

Exactly they've just been going round in circles wasting time the vote was to leave, there was nothing about a deal on that ballot paper any talk of a deal is just selling out. We've had 2 years of anti Brexit propaganda from the likes of the BBC scaring the sheep, but it's just the same bullshit they touted during the referendum. 

 

A rise in GDP doesn't equal a rise in wages so why should your average worker care? Things are shit, have been shit and continue to get worse the only scum who benefit are the bankers in London and I'd be more than happy if they @ucked off to Europe that way the tax payer won't have to bail them out next time they stuffed up. 

 

Employment rights are the worst they been since the industrial revolution, wages are stagnant, services are terrible it's virtually impossible to see a Doctor and public transport is an absolute joke. If this is the status quo bring on anything else!

you must live in a different UK to me,employment rights have improved hugely in the last 10 years as has the minimum wage,doctors a wait but your seen to if urgent,buses and transport are good in most area's,none of the things your moaning about are EU instigated and what you have now you are risking with brexit and the soon to be PM the great comrade corbyn,those bankers will come in handy when he visits them to borrow more money and bankrupt the country even further.

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9 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

more remainer scare mongering ,like the year 2000 bug when all PCs were going to fail ,but it was business as usual and no PCs dropped dead..

thing is it wont take much for the UK to fail and fall into recession 2 days of snow and it registers a blip,the seeds are all set,barely any growth,battered currency,companies queing up to leave (yes some are bluffing but many are not) JC and Labour ready to stroll into power,massive govt and household debt,basically its about donald ducked,more chance of quasimodo pulling a stunner than Britain getting better with brexit

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13 hours ago, tebee said:

You can't use good faith commitment if all they are doing is implementing existing rules  - that they may chose temporaly to relax those rules to help us is not a reason to say they should never use them.

Thanks for your reply Tebee, If you don't mind me saying so I think it's the best piece of reasoning I've seen you employ to date.

 

I think most of us are aware of the "asymmetrical" argument, because the remain-leaning MSM has never let us forget it.

 

Also, I think you exaggerate the idea that the rules are the rules and must be applied. There is no precedent for Brexit, and A50 clearly is not fit for purpose. In this situation there are major gaps in the rules. And as ever, rules are open to interpretation.

 

I agree with Ivan Rogers that the EU has out-negotiated May's representatives at every step. But this has led us to the Withdrawal Agreement, which is so one-sided in favour of the EU that it will never pass. Yes it shows the UK team to be inept (or maybe it would be more accurate to say that the UK negotiation team is comprised of remainers who have no interest in leaving), but it also shows the EU team to be acting in less than good faith, and I think this has probably hardened a lot of opinion against the EU.

 

Be all that as it may, we are now in a situation where the Withdrawal Agreement will not pass, leading most likely to a no-deal. This could take 3 forms – managed, mitigated or immediate 3rd country status. At this point I’d like to go back to my OP:

 

Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), warns that “Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

I don’t think he’ll be impressed with the “don’t worry, it’s asymmetrical” argument.

 

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