Jump to content
BANGKOK
webfact

Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, Jack100 said:

Er not quite ,  on 1 /1 2000  I said the  same thing to a friend who worked on the bug , all a  fuss about nothing etc  - actually his reply was  - there was a problem and thousands of people worked for years  on it and fixed it  !

 

This is the Exact  opposite - there was no real threat to jobs and the economy but there is now  but NOBODY is working on it because they don't know how to fix it !

I also worked on the "bug", it was only business as usual because corrective action was taken. I knew of several companies that put their head in the sand and suffered significantly, but of little interest to the media.

Second statement is spot on.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

My post was not about the withdrawal agreement, it was about German industry concerns for no deal.

Of course your post was about the withdrawal agreement, its the only thing on the table.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, sandyf said:

Of course your post was about the withdrawal agreement, its the only thing on the table.

No deal is on the table as it's the default option already approved by Parliament.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Jack100 said:

Er not quite ,  on 1 /1 2000  I said the  same thing to a friend who worked on the bug , all a  fuss about nothing etc  - actually his reply was  - there was a problem and thousands of people worked for years  on it and fixed it  !

 

This is the Exact  opposite - there was no real threat to jobs and the economy but there is now  but NOBODY is working on it because they don't know how to fix it !

Actually Y2K presented a very real threat to the economy, as most banking, financial and air-transport systems at that time were riddled with Y2K issues. I managed several large-scale projects to fix Y2K problems. Although it was an extensive problem It was essentially simple, deterministic and technical.

 

Brexit is not simple nor deterministic nor technical, though the EU bureaucrats would like to persuade you it's a simple technical matter of following rules.

 

Re your second paragraph, many people in many countries have been working on the Brexit "problem" for some time. And now there is a growing range of options and mitigations in place.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, tebee said:

There will be less exports to the UK, but equally there will be less exports from the UK - the consumers that would have bought them will still need to buy from somewhere.

 

Quite, simple reality. In the post brexit world, "Product of the EU" will have a completely different context.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Thanks for your reply Tebee, If you don't mind me saying so I think it's the best piece of reasoning I've seen you employ to date.

 

I think most of us are aware of the "asymmetrical" argument, because the remain-leaning MSM has never let us forget it.

 

Also, I think you exaggerate the idea that the rules are the rules and must be applied. There is no precedent for Brexit, and A50 clearly is not fit for purpose. In this situation there are major gaps in the rules. And as ever, rules are open to interpretation.

 

I agree with Ivan Rogers that the EU has out-negotiated May's representatives at every step. But this has led us to the Withdrawal Agreement, which is so one-sided in favour of the EU that it will never pass. Yes it shows the UK team to be inept (or maybe it would be more accurate to say that the UK negotiation team is comprised of remainers who have no interest in leaving), but it also shows the EU team to be acting in less than good faith, and I think this has probably hardened a lot of opinion against the EU.

 

Be all that as it may, we are now in a situation where the Withdrawal Agreement will not pass, leading most likely to a no-deal. This could take 3 forms – managed, mitigated or immediate 3rd country status. At this point I’d like to go back to my OP:

 

Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), warns that “Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

I don’t think he’ll be impressed with the “don’t worry, it’s asymmetrical” argument.

 

the German chap might not be impressed,

but what can he do? note that the decision makers here are PMs/Headsofstates

he hardly has access to these, maybe - a remote chance of seeing Merkel on a good day

 

and these people are fairly immune to lobby activities from some chap in Germany with special interests

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, billd766 said:

I wonder if Grouse has seen that link?

 

Pat Condell never raised his voice, never ranted and raved and IMHO came over reasonably but then again I voted to leave.

He has but hasn't yet seen this:

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

the German chap might not be impressed,

but what can he do? note that the decision makers here are PMs/Headsofstates

he hardly has access to these, maybe - a remote chance of seeing Merkel on a good day

 

and these people are fairly immune to lobby activities from some chap in Germany with special interests

The realpolitik of the EU is that it was set up to protect German industry and French farming, and those principles are still in operation. Given your background I'm sure you know this as well as I do.

 

German Auto Inc successfully co-opted Merkel on emissions and influenced EU emissions policy (easily googleable), and I doubt that they'll let Brussels bureaucrats decimate their industry via a politically motivated punitive Brexit when there are plenty of more co-operative possibilities.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Henryford said:

No deal is on the table as it's the default option already approved by Parliament.

If you are saying there is currently EU/UK negotiations taking place on a "No Deal Agreement" then I will stand corrected.

 

You should remember that the original point was in respect of influencing the EU so the "table" was the one between the EU and UK, not as you have tried to make out, in parliament.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

The realpolitik of the EU is that it was set up to protect German industry and French farming, and those principles are still in operation. Given your background I'm sure you know this as well as I do.

 

German Auto Inc successfully co-opted Merkel on emissions and influenced EU emissions policy (easily googleable), and I doubt that they'll let Brussels bureaucrats decimate their industry via a politically motivated punitive Brexit when there are plenty of more co-operative possibilities.

 

 

no problem with that,

 

but we are now dealing with the withdrawal

bending/massaging issues close to deal/cover - I doubt that the high level meeting will leave

this to  be sorted by Juncker without strict guidance

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), warns that “Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

Someone else taking lessons from brexiteers.

In any form of post brexit world, people in the UK that want to buy a German car will accept the new price and carry on, imports from Germany are not going to stop. There may be a drop in sales but that is business and it is up to individual companies to find new customers, nothing whatsoever to do with Brussels.

There is a far greater chance of the Japanese manufacturers running down their operations in the UK than the Germans being severely affected.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...