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Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE


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5 hours ago, bomber said:

thing is it wont take much for the UK to fail and fall into recession 2 days of snow and it registers a blip,the seeds are all set,barely any growth,battered currency,companies queing up to leave (yes some are bluffing but many are not) JC and Labour ready to stroll into power,massive govt and household debt,basically its about donald ducked,more chance of quasimodo pulling a stunner than Britain getting better with brexit

Now you have given me the donald trump.

You are right considering the fragile state of

the UK economy, it has been in decline for ages,

in or out of the EU the decline will continue,

be aware that Greece is the EMF economic

model for the EU future.

Out of the EU we could consider adopting

the Chinese economic system.

Stick the finger to the EU and US.

Meanwhile eradicating the deep state community

and their puppet UK gov.

Replacing it with an honest democratic government

of people for the people.

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One thing we can be fairly sure of is that the Just in Time concept for modern manufacturing & distribution is about to get a MASSIVE test & tryout.

 

An excellent chance to prepare the Brits for other upcoming catastrophes over the next couple of decades (ie on the ecological & Eastern Fronts).

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15 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

more remainer scare mongering ,like the year 2000 bug when all PCs were going to fail ,but it was business as usual and no PCs dropped dead..

 

 

I always think that your forum name would benefit from another ‘S’ on the end...  😄😄

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2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Something tells me that Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), knows a bit more about his business than you do, and he is clear:

 

“Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

As for your comment about "nothing whatsoever to do with Brussels". That's great, so you have inside information that the EU is going to be dissolved and Brussels will no longer have anything to do with trade policy - fantastic!

 

The reality is that we are still far from agreement on what will happen with trade after March 29 2019. At one extreme there is May's WA which preserves the Customs Union, at the other extreme there is immediate 3rd country status. The most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle.

 

And the most powerful lobby group in the EU (German Auto Inc) will do everything it can to influence the outcome. Actually it already has hasn't it - along with the CBI it played a huge role in pushing towards May's WA. But this has backfired spectacularly, as it will not pass. This is why Eric Schweitzer has returned to the fray.

Surprise, so finally Brexiteers are listening to what experts have to say? Maybe you should do it for your own economy as well.  

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1 hour ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Surprise, so finally Brexiteers are listening to what experts have to say? Maybe you should do it for your own economy as well.  

 

We listen to 'experts' we just don't listen to the paid shills the BBC wheel out day in day out

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4 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Something tells me that Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), knows a bit more about his business than you do, and he is clear:

 

“Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

That is a bit rich. If the UK Chamber of Commerce said the same thing all you brexiteers would be shouting Project Fear.

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3 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

interesting if Azevedo said that,

Azevedo has also said that it is unlikely that UK's schedule/profile

will be sorted by Brexit day

 

Update to previous response, on 24th July UK submitted a draft schedule which I realise now was just for goods. On 3rd December the UK submitted another draft schedule for services(again as the EU) and members have 45 days to raise objections.

Your comment about a schedule being submitted late in the year was perfectly valid, apologies.

Norman Lamont seems to be a bit confused.

 

The head of the World Trade Organization said the U.K. risks trade disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit because it is “very unlikely” to have agreed tariffs and quotas with the other WTO members in time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-24/wto-warns-u-k-faces-difficult-shift-to-bloc-s-rules-post-brexit

 

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18 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Update to previous response, on 24th July UK submitted a draft schedule which I realise now was just for goods. On 3rd December the UK submitted another draft schedule for services(again as the EU) and members have 45 days to raise objections.

Your comment about a schedule being submitted late in the year was perfectly valid, apologies.

Norman Lamont seems to be a bit confused.

 

The head of the World Trade Organization said the U.K. risks trade disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit because it is “very unlikely” to have agreed tariffs and quotas with the other WTO members in time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-24/wto-warns-u-k-faces-difficult-shift-to-bloc-s-rules-post-brexit

 

at any rate, as we say in Yorkshire,

 

a shame that UK gov didn't start to sort their WTO stuff right after a50 was triggered

 

 

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1 hour ago, sandyf said:

That is a bit rich. If the UK Chamber of Commerce said the same thing all you brexiteers would be shouting Project Fear.

Not really Sandy, Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry, is saying something very very specific: "More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

Project fear is usually based on much more general speculation, which is mis-represented as fact. Read the OP for this thread as a good example: a BoE worst case scenario mis-represented as a forecast.

 

Something else needs to be said in this context, which I haven't yet seen expressed on this forum (though I may have missed it). When a sovereign nation is faced with economic challenges it can respond quickly. When it is part of a 28 nation trading bloc it is hampered by a slow moving rule-bound bureaucratic juggernaut whose interests are not necessarily aligned with its own.

 

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41 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Not really Sandy, Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry, is saying something very very specific: "More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

Project fear is usually based on much more general speculation, which is mis-represented as fact. Read the OP for this thread as a good example: a BoE worst case scenario mis-represented as a forecast.

 

Something else needs to be said in this context, which I haven't yet seen expressed on this forum (though I may have missed it). When a sovereign nation is faced with economic challenges it can respond quickly. When it is part of a 28 nation trading bloc it is hampered by a slow moving rule-bound bureaucratic juggernaut whose interests are not necessarily aligned with its own.

 

British Chamber of commerce is not happy either 

 

https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2018/12/british-business-says-no-to-no-deal-in-100-days-time

 

“Businesses have been watching in horror as politicians have focused on factional disputes rather than practical steps that business needs to move forward, the lack of progress in Westminster means that the risk of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit is rising. Businesses of all sizes are reaching the point of no return, with many now putting in place contingency plans that are a significant drain of time and money. Firms are pausing or diverting investment that should be boosting productivity, innovation, jobs and pay, into stockpiling goods or materials, diverting cross border trade and moving offices, factories and therefore jobs and tax revenues out of the UK.

 

Will the UK government listen? 

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11 hours ago, bomber said:

you must live in a different UK to me,employment rights have improved hugely in the last 10 years as has the minimum wage,doctors a wait but your seen to if urgent,buses and transport are good in most area's,none of the things your moaning about are EU instigated and what you have now you are risking with brexit and the soon to be PM the great comrade corbyn,those bankers will come in handy when he visits them to borrow more money and bankrupt the country even further.

 

 Well I certainly live in a different U.K to you.

A U.K where employment rights have been eroded, where minimum wages are offered @ £7.83 hr. Many jobs avertised for 4hrs a WEEK. Those lucky to find employment for 36hrs will receive the princely sum of £281 per week, £1200 mth, less statutory deductions. 

They then have to find accommodation, in a market that is dominated by the corrupt and greedy,private rental sector. Paying a rent of perhaps £700-1,000 per month,which unless there are two breadwinners in the household, results in the tax payer,paying benifits.

An appointment with a G.P could entail a Waite of 25 days.

Of course this is not all down to the E.U. But do try,not to spin the current situation into the benifits of the being part of this so called Union.

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5 minutes ago, nontabury said:

 

 Well I certainly live in a different U.K to you.

A U.K where employment rights have been eroded, where minimum wages are offered @ £7.83 hr. Many jobs avertised for 4hrs a WEEK. Those lucky to find employment for 36hrs will receive the princely sum of £281 per week, £1200 mth, less statutory deductions. 

They then have to find accommodation, in a market that is dominated by the corrupt and greedy,private rental sector. Paying a rent of perhaps £700-1,000 per month,which unless there are two breadwinners in the household, results in the tax payer,paying benifits.

An appointment with a G.P could entail a Waite of 25 days.

Of course this is not all down to the E.U. But do try,not to spin the current situation into the benifits of the being part of this so called Union.

None of that is down to the EU. Zero and low hours contracts are banned in most counties.

 

House prices and rents are caused by our British obsession with using our homes as an investment vehicle. We have staved socal housing funds, leading to the rise of the buy-to-let market to fill the gap. Rising house prices, good for those who own their house ( now primarily elderly in the UK 43% of houses are owned by the 65+ age bracket) and the owners of BTL houses, but bad for those who need to rent. This is naked capitalism at work.

 

The neoliberal obsession with privatization has increased costs for everyone, while diverting public funds to rich capitalists.

 

You voted for this I'm afraid. The Tory press have sort to blame other for the UK woes and enough of you believed them to keep voting the Tories back into power.  You now reap the "benefits" of doing this.    You have no one to blame but yourselves. 

 

Now brexit comes along - you want to give unfettered power  to those same tories  without any limitations imposed by EU membership. But you somehow think this will be "better" There is no hope for the future UK. Scotland needs it's independence soon.

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