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Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

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5 hours ago, bomber said:

thing is it wont take much for the UK to fail and fall into recession 2 days of snow and it registers a blip,the seeds are all set,barely any growth,battered currency,companies queing up to leave (yes some are bluffing but many are not) JC and Labour ready to stroll into power,massive govt and household debt,basically its about donald ducked,more chance of quasimodo pulling a stunner than Britain getting better with brexit

Now you have given me the donald trump.

You are right considering the fragile state of

the UK economy, it has been in decline for ages,

in or out of the EU the decline will continue,

be aware that Greece is the EMF economic

model for the EU future.

Out of the EU we could consider adopting

the Chinese economic system.

Stick the finger to the EU and US.

Meanwhile eradicating the deep state community

and their puppet UK gov.

Replacing it with an honest democratic government

of people for the people.

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One thing we can be fairly sure of is that the Just in Time concept for modern manufacturing & distribution is about to get a MASSIVE test & tryout.

 

An excellent chance to prepare the Brits for other upcoming catastrophes over the next couple of decades (ie on the ecological & Eastern Fronts).

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15 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

more remainer scare mongering ,like the year 2000 bug when all PCs were going to fail ,but it was business as usual and no PCs dropped dead..

 

 

I always think that your forum name would benefit from another ‘S’ on the end...  😄😄

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1 hour ago, evadgib said:

No deal? no problem 🙂

 

 

interesting if Azevedo said that,

Azevedo has also said that it is unlikely that UK's schedule/profile

will be sorted by Brexit day

 

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2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Something tells me that Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), knows a bit more about his business than you do, and he is clear:

 

“Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

As for your comment about "nothing whatsoever to do with Brussels". That's great, so you have inside information that the EU is going to be dissolved and Brussels will no longer have anything to do with trade policy - fantastic!

 

The reality is that we are still far from agreement on what will happen with trade after March 29 2019. At one extreme there is May's WA which preserves the Customs Union, at the other extreme there is immediate 3rd country status. The most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle.

 

And the most powerful lobby group in the EU (German Auto Inc) will do everything it can to influence the outcome. Actually it already has hasn't it - along with the CBI it played a huge role in pushing towards May's WA. But this has backfired spectacularly, as it will not pass. This is why Eric Schweitzer has returned to the fray.

Surprise, so finally Brexiteers are listening to what experts have to say? Maybe you should do it for your own economy as well.  

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4 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Something tells me that Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), knows a bit more about his business than you do, and he is clear:

 

“Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

That is a bit rich. If the UK Chamber of Commerce said the same thing all you brexiteers would be shouting Project Fear.

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3 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

interesting if Azevedo said that,

Azevedo has also said that it is unlikely that UK's schedule/profile

will be sorted by Brexit day

 

Update to previous response, on 24th July UK submitted a draft schedule which I realise now was just for goods. On 3rd December the UK submitted another draft schedule for services(again as the EU) and members have 45 days to raise objections.

Your comment about a schedule being submitted late in the year was perfectly valid, apologies.

Norman Lamont seems to be a bit confused.

 

The head of the World Trade Organization said the U.K. risks trade disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit because it is “very unlikely” to have agreed tariffs and quotas with the other WTO members in time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-24/wto-warns-u-k-faces-difficult-shift-to-bloc-s-rules-post-brexit

 

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41 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Not really Sandy, Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry, is saying something very very specific: "More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

Project fear is usually based on much more general speculation, which is mis-represented as fact. Read the OP for this thread as a good example: a BoE worst case scenario mis-represented as a forecast.

 

Something else needs to be said in this context, which I haven't yet seen expressed on this forum (though I may have missed it). When a sovereign nation is faced with economic challenges it can respond quickly. When it is part of a 28 nation trading bloc it is hampered by a slow moving rule-bound bureaucratic juggernaut whose interests are not necessarily aligned with its own.

 

British Chamber of commerce is not happy either 

 

https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2018/12/british-business-says-no-to-no-deal-in-100-days-time

 

“Businesses have been watching in horror as politicians have focused on factional disputes rather than practical steps that business needs to move forward, the lack of progress in Westminster means that the risk of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit is rising. Businesses of all sizes are reaching the point of no return, with many now putting in place contingency plans that are a significant drain of time and money. Firms are pausing or diverting investment that should be boosting productivity, innovation, jobs and pay, into stockpiling goods or materials, diverting cross border trade and moving offices, factories and therefore jobs and tax revenues out of the UK.

 

Will the UK government listen? 

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