Britain can end Brexit unilaterally, EU court advisor says

[beautifulthailand99]

A little early Christmas present for all the leavers - they can never take away how you felt on that day. At least you get to keep that.

 

 

[lamyai3]

1 hour ago, KhunProletariat said:

I said this in 2016 and I will say it again. Britain won't leave the European union. Too much big business and party politics at play.

There is no way on this Earth that the current deal will get through parliament and the movers and shakers down at Canary Wharf

simply will not allow a no deal brexit. It will go back to the people via a General Election, Labor will win by a landslide, and the working class

will rule again. It's obvious that a 2nd vote will be overwhelmingly for remain, and the tory's will be left in political wilderness.

Nice tache, Friedrich 

[Basil B]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

It seems there is still a possibility that the majority would again vote for Brexit.

One would think they had two years to realize Brexit just does not make any sense...

Lets hope not.

 

TM has done her best, that I am assured of. we are not going to get a better deal... we nether were.

 

The best deal is to remain and seems we can unilaterally withdraw Article 50, retaining all our privileges according to Advocate General Campos Sánchez-Bordona, though not the final say on the matter it is highly probable the the ECJ will agree with him.

https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/docs/application/pdf/2018-12/cp180187en.pdf

[nauseus]

30 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Lets hope not.

 

TM has done her best, that I am assured of. we are not going to get a better deal... we nether were.

 

The best deal is to remain and seems we can unilaterally withdraw Article 50, retaining all our privileges according to Advocate General Campos Sánchez-Bordona, though not the final say on the matter it is highly probable the the ECJ will agree with him.

https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/docs/application/pdf/2018-12/cp180187en.pdf

It's infectious. Innit?

[AlexRich]

3 hours ago, roo860 said:

 

Where where the young voters?

Sent from my SM-G920F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

 

In bed.

[AlexRich]

3 hours ago, nauseus said:

I agree that a majority of senior voters were for leave but I disagree with your explanation. A lot of these people witnessed the mutation of what was deceptively sold simply as the common market into the complex political bureaucracy that it obviously is and that was evidently planned from the start. Large numbers of these voters waited very patiently for this referendum, for a very long time, with the majority of the leave votes set years ago when they weren't quite so old and didn't need the zimmer frames that you seem so keen to unkindly associate with them. I also have no doubt that they also voted in what they think to be the best interests of their children and children's children.

 

Not that lie again: "I voted for my grandchildren". But did not bother to ask them if that's what they wanted ... Grandad knows best, especially when his vote doesn't hit his own pocket.

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, AlexRich said:

 

Not that lie again: "I voted for my grandchildren". But did not bother to ask them if that's what they wanted ... Grandad knows best, especially when his vote doesn't hit his own pocket.

 

Not what I said but no lies from me. Just flat denial from you. I spoke to all of the family - all the younger ones are well educated and in London and elsewhere...... and they all voted OUT! Pocket nothing to do with anything. I hope that we leave. Whatever. 

[AlexRich]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

Not what I said but no lies from me. Just flat denial from you. I spoke to all of the family - all the younger ones are well educated and in London and elsewhere...... and they all voted OUT! Pocket nothing to do with anything. I hope that we leave. Whatever. 

 

London did not vote out, only bigoted areas like Romford voted that way. I'll settle for a soft brexit ... or none at all.

[SheungWan]

9 hours ago, AlexRich said:

 

I think there is a hard core who don't think they would lose anything from it, but most people with jobs, mortgages, businesses are more inclined towards some sort of deal or remain. So I think they'd lose by a bigger margin than they won previously.

The real world doesn't always trump populism.

[AlexRich]

9 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

The real world doesn't always trump populism.

I reckon populism will fade, particularly where Brexit is concerned ... the amendments in the House of Commons today make a "no deal" Brexit less likely. I suspect we'll see a soft Brexit on the second vote in parliament. But if no one bends we could well see a second referendum, and an end to Brexit.

[roo860]

In bed.

Not that interested in their future, or they reckoned remain camp would walk it?

Sent from my SM-G920F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Grouse]

Good morning everyone! What a fabulous day! I feel fully energised and enthusiastic! No idea why; maybe Farage dumping UKIP has put a spring in my step?

 

Coffee anyone?

[vogie]

20 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Good morning everyone! What a fabulous day! I feel fully energised and enthusiastic! No idea why; maybe Farage dumping UKIP has put a spring in my step?

 

Coffee anyone?

I was thinking similar thoughts grouse. It's obvious we don't have one decent political party, maybe now IS the time to form a new one, we could call it The True Democratic Party (TTDP). Nigel Farage has left UKIP, wouldn't he be the obvious choice to form the 'peoples party' a party for the people and not themselves, a party with brexit in their manifesto. He could even use Labours slogan of 'for the many and not the few' it is certainly not befitting Labour. 

As The Carpenters sang "we've only just begun"

[sandyf]

15 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Put the decision to the electorate.

 

Just not in the mentality of some, corrective action is an alien concept.

If they were told by a GP they needed amputation they wouldn't be interested in anything the consultant had to say until after the limb was off.

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, AlexRich said:

I reckon populism will fade, particularly where Brexit is concerned ... the amendments in the House of Commons today make a "no deal" Brexit less likely. I suspect we'll see a soft Brexit on the second vote in parliament. But if no one bends we could well see a second referendum, and an end to Brexit.

Quite, and maybe the government can start spending money where it is needed rather than satellite systems and the like.

I learnt a new word yesterday "offrolling", apparently it refers to children that schools don't want or are unable to deal with. It would appear that children are being forced out of schools and never reappear in the education system.

Another ball that the eye has been taken off, or is it something else the EU has to answer for.

[finnishmen]

EU,court big joke, england not need go EU better not go because EU take only all england money and make lot new law what have only big joke or shit, only problem lot if have at EU wery expensive and EU not give anything back good for country, Finland go to EU and then all has come down ,more tax,more shit idiots law, all manufactory and selling to out country has drop economy has drop and need pay to EU lot lot shit tax.all EU need end.

[maingmoom]

Everybody here seems to forget. We voted to leave the EU and by leave we meant lock stock and barrel. We could then freely trade with the rest of the world. F*** the EU all they have done is try to screw us from the very beginning. 

[samran]

1 hour ago, maingmoom said:

Everybody here seems to forget. We voted to leave the EU and by leave we meant lock stock and barrel. We could then freely trade with the rest of the world. F*** the EU all they have done is try to screw us from the very beginning. 

The part of me, which very much enjoys schadenfreude, wants very much for this to happen.

 

I mean, if it takes the painful lesson of actually seeing what 'freely trading with the rest of the world' means.... then so be it.

 

You'll see, than unlike what you have already in the EU, there is no such thing as 'free trade'. Sure, countries sign 'free trade' agreements all the time, but for the most part they are contracts where each side agree to let in as little as humanly possible, trade wise, and then go out via non-tariff barriers to not let these products in anyway.

 

A bit like Thailands 'free' trade agreement with Australia for instance.

 

- tariffs have been slashed on wines by the customs department. So the excise department increases wine excise to compensate.

- Australian avocado's can't be imported into Thailand, given some mythical pest they keep citing.

- Since 2004 Australians were supposed to have access to 3 year work permits. Problem is, Thailand never passed the law to allow this.

- Australia's tariff free beef quota gets filled by about the 5th of January each year.

 

And the list goes on....

 

And the likes of EU, China and the US play this game times 1000.

 

Australia's upcoming negotiated 'free' trade agreement with the EU is being held up by some Sicilian tomato farmers who don't want Australian tomatoes sold into the EU.

 

So good on you brexiteers. This is the future of 'free' trade. Oh, by the way, did I tell you that these 'free' trade agreements take about 5 to 10 years to negotiate?

 

Welcome to the future, or the past....

 

You are about to find out what 'being screwed' really means.

[Tchooptip]

UK voters were not told everything about the Brexit and all its possible consequences or problems the Brexiters proponents were not honest and responsible politicians but fairground boasters. It does not mean Brexit should not have happened, that's another subject. But it was presented mainly by populist political wheeler-dealers, now we see the results. 

[Pedrogaz]

I believe the UK will be better off out of Europe. More independence if not materially better off. Personally I don't care about a few points shaved off GDP, as the poor and middle classes get none of the profits from increased GDP, as all the profits from GDP growth go into the pockets of the elite 1% which is why inequality of income goes up and up relentlessly.

So taking economics off the table, the reason I wish to leave the EU is that it is run by a bunch of incompetent differs....take the alcoholic EU president, JC Juncker for starters....and none me one competent commissioner with integrity. With such poor leadership and no ability to change or influence their appointment the EU is doomed to gradual decay. It is a sinking ship, the Euro has exacerbated the changes and we have grandiose leaders continually trying to sequester all power in Brussels. It is time for a change. The EU and Britain do so much trade that it will continue because when all the shouting is done, it makes economic sense to do so.

So I would still support a Brexit.....but a hard Brexit if the issue ever comes up for a referendum.

Having said that the position we are now in is as a result of two things.....one was sabotage on behalf of idiot retainers who could not accept the will of the people....and the second was mammoth ineptitude on behalf of May and her band of incompetents.

The negotiation was easy....threaten hard Brexit and no future payments at all as none are legally required....the EU exports much more to the UK than the UK does to Britain and we have a massive balance of payments deficit with them, so the EU, instead of frightening our incompetent negotiators would be fearful themselves. That is the way to negotiate, not revealing your negotiating strategy to the other party and let them walk all over you. 

Any deal we were going to do pre-Brexit would be held to ransom by Spain over Gibraltar and Eire over the border....our people should have seen this coming as both would have a veto. The answer to these would again be to threaten exactly what they don't want....hard Brexit with all territories and hard borders. I conducted negotiations as my job....you set out a hard position early on and then retreat to your real red lines close to the end...that is how it is done....not the stupid way these clowns in the Tory party did it.

The other thing they didn't do was to get Labour on board by forcing them to come off the fence and either support a hard Brexit or admit they didn't care about the result that millions voted for. It would have strengthened May, but she is just too weak to be a PM in a challenging environment.

Absent another referendum, my preferred pathway would be to stay in....write to the EU and say Article 50 is cancelled we are staying in. After begging us to stay the EU would look rather stupid saying no, no, no you cannot come back. Having said that Juncker is that stupid.

[dick dasterdly]

3 minutes ago, Pedrogaz said:

I believe the UK will be better off out of Europe. More independence if not materially better off. Personally I don't care about a few points shaved off GDP, as the poor and middle classes get none of the profits from increased GDP, as all the profits from GDP growth go into the pockets of the elite 1% which is why inequality of income goes up and up relentlessly.

So taking economics off the table, the reason I wish to leave the EU is that it is run by a bunch of incompetent differs....take the alcoholic EU president, JC Juncker for starters....and none me one competent commissioner with integrity. With such poor leadership and no ability to change or influence their appointment the EU is doomed to gradual decay. It is a sinking ship, the Euro has exacerbated the changes and we have grandiose leaders continually trying to sequester all power in Brussels. It is time for a change. The EU and Britain do so much trade that it will continue because when all the shouting is done, it makes economic sense to do so.

So I would still support a Brexit.....but a hard Brexit if the issue ever comes up for a referendum.

Having said that the position we are now in is as a result of two things.....one was sabotage on behalf of idiot retainers who could not accept the will of the people....and the second was mammoth ineptitude on behalf of May and her band of incompetents.

The negotiation was easy....threaten hard Brexit and no future payments at all as none are legally required....the EU exports much more to the UK than the UK does to Britain and we have a massive balance of payments deficit with them, so the EU, instead of frightening our incompetent negotiators would be fearful themselves. That is the way to negotiate, not revealing your negotiating strategy to the other party and let them walk all over you. 

Any deal we were going to do pre-Brexit would be held to ransom by Spain over Gibraltar and Eire over the border....our people should have seen this coming as both would have a veto. The answer to these would again be to threaten exactly what they don't want....hard Brexit with all territories and hard borders. I conducted negotiations as my job....you set out a hard position early on and then retreat to your real red lines close to the end...that is how it is done....not the stupid way these clowns in the Tory party did it.

The other thing they didn't do was to get Labour on board by forcing them to come off the fence and either support a hard Brexit or admit they didn't care about the result that millions voted for. It would have strengthened May, but she is just too weak to be a PM in a challenging environment.

Absent another referendum, my preferred pathway would be to stay in....write to the EU and say Article 50 is cancelled we are staying in. After begging us to stay the EU would look rather stupid saying no, no, no you cannot come back. Having said that Juncker is that stupid.

I agree with much of this, but particularly disagree with your point that May was just 'inept'.

 

Even an inept politician wouldn't have agreed to the eu's negotiating agenda, unless they have an ulterior motive!

 

That ulterior motive is now in full view, as per her 'agreement' ☹️ with the eu - leave in name only.....  Edit - And hope the 'plebs' don't notice.....

[Ron19]

Posts and answers to them have been removed.

[samran]

1 hour ago, Pedrogaz said:

I believe the UK will be better off out of Europe. More independence if not materially better off. Personally I don't care about a few points shaved off GDP, as the poor and middle classes get none of the profits from increased GDP, as all the profits from GDP growth go into the pockets of the elite 1% which is why inequality of income goes up and up relentlessly.

So taking economics off the table, the reason I wish to leave the EU is that it is run by a bunch of incompetent differs....take the alcoholic EU president, JC Juncker for starters....and none me one competent commissioner with integrity. With such poor leadership and no ability to change or influence their appointment the EU is doomed to gradual decay. It is a sinking ship, the Euro has exacerbated the changes and we have grandiose leaders continually trying to sequester all power in Brussels. It is time for a change. The EU and Britain do so much trade that it will continue because when all the shouting is done, it makes economic sense to do so.

So I would still support a Brexit.....but a hard Brexit if the issue ever comes up for a referendum.

Having said that the position we are now in is as a result of two things.....one was sabotage on behalf of idiot retainers who could not accept the will of the people....and the second was mammoth ineptitude on behalf of May and her band of incompetents.

The negotiation was easy....threaten hard Brexit and no future payments at all as none are legally required....the EU exports much more to the UK than the UK does to Britain and we have a massive balance of payments deficit with them, so the EU, instead of frightening our incompetent negotiators would be fearful themselves. That is the way to negotiate, not revealing your negotiating strategy to the other party and let them walk all over you. 

Any deal we were going to do pre-Brexit would be held to ransom by Spain over Gibraltar and Eire over the border....our people should have seen this coming as both would have a veto. The answer to these would again be to threaten exactly what they don't want....hard Brexit with all territories and hard borders. I conducted negotiations as my job....you set out a hard position early on and then retreat to your real red lines close to the end...that is how it is done....not the stupid way these clowns in the Tory party did it.

The other thing they didn't do was to get Labour on board by forcing them to come off the fence and either support a hard Brexit or admit they didn't care about the result that millions voted for. It would have strengthened May, but she is just too weak to be a PM in a challenging environment.

Absent another referendum, my preferred pathway would be to stay in....write to the EU and say Article 50 is cancelled we are staying in. After begging us to stay the EU would look rather stupid saying no, no, no you cannot come back. Having said that Juncker is that stupid.

One problem I see with your analysis.

 

It May very well be the fact that the EU sends more the the UK than vice versa. However this ignores that the UK treasury and most of the civil service are free traders. As a small open economy - you get rid of tariffs anyway even if the other side doesn’t. The EU know this and they’d still be able to easily send stuff to the UK. 

 

The EU on the other hand, have no issues with protectionism. It is free trade within the EU and screw anyone  outside of it.

 

The UK, as a global financial hub would suffer greatly. People who voted for brexit wouldn’t have any issue with this no doubt, as an up yours to them given their behaviour in the GFC. But the ripple effects would problematic for everyone in the UK connected to that sector and the SE of England losing its status as one of the worlds premier service hubs (ie considered an export) wouldnt be such a good thing from a balance of trade perspective. 

[dick dasterdly]

8 minutes ago, samran said:

One problem I see with your analysis.

 

It May very well be the fact that the EU sends more the the UK than vice versa. However this ignores that the UK treasury and most of the civil service are free traders. As a small open economy - you get rid of tariffs anyway even if the other side doesn’t. The EU know this and they’d still be able to easily send stuff to the UK. 

 

The EU on the other hand, have no issues with protectionism. It is free trade within the EU and screw anyone  outside of it.

 

The UK, as a global financial hub would suffer greatly. People who voted for brexit wouldn’t have any issue with this no doubt, as an up yours to them given their behaviour in the GFC. But the ripple effects would problematic for everyone in the UK connected to that sector and the SE of England losing its status as one of the worlds premier service hubs (ie considered an export) wouldnt be such a good thing from a balance of trade perspective. 

Most people don't care about the uk 'financial hub' losing some money after they led us into a recession in '08.  Perhaps I'm being slightly unfair, as it was US banks that highlighted the problem within many overseas banks.

 

Not to mention some banks used govt. money to continue paying their executives the same (or increased....) salary, and ridiculous bonuses to those that had led us into the disaster - whilst 'blaming' the borrowers and stopping/cutting back all loans etc. unless those seeking a loan were seeking a HUGE sum, and in their minds 'credit worthy'....

 

There is an old saying that goes something along the lines of - borrow a small amount from a bank, and it's your problem, borrow millions - and it's the banks' problem....

 

But to be fair, I'm not an 'expert', so perhaps I'm wrong in this assessment.

[dick dasterdly]

24 minutes ago, samran said:

One problem I see with your analysis.

 

It May very well be the fact that the EU sends more the the UK than vice versa. However this ignores that the UK treasury and most of the civil service are free traders. As a small open economy - you get rid of tariffs anyway even if the other side doesn’t. The EU know this and they’d still be able to easily send stuff to the UK. 

 

The EU on the other hand, have no issues with protectionism. It is free trade within the EU and screw anyone  outside of it.

 

The UK, as a global financial hub would suffer greatly. People who voted for brexit wouldn’t have any issue with this no doubt, as an up yours to them given their behaviour in the GFC. But the ripple effects would problematic for everyone in the UK connected to that sector and the SE of England losing its status as one of the worlds premier service hubs (ie considered an export) wouldnt be such a good thing from a balance of trade perspective. 

"It May very well be the fact that the EU sends more the the UK than vice versa. However this ignores that the UK treasury and most of the civil service are free traders"

 

Please explain.

 

"As a small open economy - you get rid of tariffs anyway even if the other side doesn’t. The EU know this and they’d still be able to easily send stuff to the UK."

 

Really? Why?

[Baerboxer]

20 hours ago, fruitman said:

Just do it, it takes far too long now.

 

And if they want to stay than pay for ALL the wasted time and we go on like nothing happened.

 

Any member state can do this. Give notice and then withdraw it.

 

There is nothing about anyone paying anything - so your comment is irrelevant.

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, Baerboxer said:

 

Any member state can do this. Give notice and then withdraw it.

 

There is nothing about anyone paying anything - so your comment is irrelevant.

The problem is that a majority of those voting in the referendum, voted to leave - and many MPs know they are unlikely to be re-elected if they support ignoring the referendum result.....

[AlexRich]

6 hours ago, roo860 said:

 

Not that interested in their future, or they reckoned remain camp would walk it?

Sent from my SM-G920F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

 

I think they thought people would vote to remain.

 

[AlexRich]

4 hours ago, sandyf said:

Quite, and maybe the government can start spending money where it is needed rather than satellite systems and the like.

I learnt a new word yesterday "offrolling", apparently it refers to children that schools don't want or are unable to deal with. It would appear that children are being forced out of schools and never reappear in the education system.

Another ball that the eye has been taken off, or is it something else the EU has to answer for.

 

These are interesting times. With "no deal" unlikely and the risk of a Corbyn government, I wonder if the DUP and ERG will get behind May's deal to keep their Brexit hopes alive? It's not going their way.

 

[sirineou]

 As an American looking in from the outside and not only being able to see the trees but also the whole forest, I am a bit ambivalent about Brexit. 

On one hand I hate to see what Brexit will do to the UK and the negative effect  it will have on my british  friends , on the other hand, IMO, I don't think the EU can make the necessary reforms for further integration, necessary for the union to remain viable with the british not all in.. 

IMO you are either all in or all out, half measures only prolongs the pain, and the UK was never all in and if it remains will prolong the "not all in" attitude. 

It is my hope that my british friends will change their minds and remain, while at the same time realise where their future is, stop wishing for a past that no longer exists and make the necessary adjustments to create straight through addition not weakness through division.

Hubris has being the downfall of many great people.