mommysboy Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, bkkcanuck8 said: WTO terms is no-deal hard Brexit. After leaving with no-deal you are free to trade under the lower standard of WTO until such time as you can negotiate better terms bilaterally... but if the exit was no-deal brexit - there likely won't be better terms than WTO with the EU for a while (and it would still be worse than what was negotiated). MM is right in as much as EU/UK would have to agree a withdrawal deal. That could include an agreement not to do a trade deal. It's the only option left in reality. Why? Because Brexit demands that you UK regains sovereignty. As you pointed out, doing any more advanced type of trade deal requires ceding independence, particularly where EU is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tebee Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Any trade deal means ceding independence to a certain extent, if you want absolute independence look to the North Korean model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evadgib Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 8 hours ago, 7by7 said: Perhaps you could provide us all with a link to the independent information you have seen which convinces you a convicted fraudster and known liar is to be believed over numerous media outlets from all parts of the political spectrum; left and right wing, Remain and Brexit. Even the ultra pro Brexit, anti May Sun only puts attendees at Yaxley-Lennon's demonstration in the thousands rather than the tens of thousands he claims! My opinion was formed from info found in the public domain. My thoughts on TR/SY-L aren't relevant but I know what a govt stitch up looks like & his stance has certainly drawn their attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melvinmelvin Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 9 hours ago, Basil B said: The door is closed... I dont think the door is closed, its ajar, during a few days after eu heads of states gave their political nod to the deal several pms expressed in interviews that changes could be envisaged if uk parliament said no. what barnier juncker tusk says doesnt really count if heads of states says dance, they dance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melvinmelvin Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 life is hard being a PM - struggle a long time to agree on a deal ends up with a deal, in fact the best deal there is, it is so good that nobody wants it life is not fair on politicians just saw in a Swedish MSM that they consider Brexit is in the process of becoming a farce moderate language - indeed guess many voters are becoming fed up/tired with politicians, entering the "contempt of politicians" state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 hours ago, tebee said: Any trade deal means ceding independence to a certain extent, if you want absolute independence look to the North Korean model. Well, of course some trade deal would need to follow. The NK model could appeal to JRM however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolboy Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said: I dont think the door is closed, its ajar, during a few days after eu heads of states gave their political nod to the deal several pms expressed in interviews that changes could be envisaged if uk parliament said no. what barnier juncker tusk says doesnt really count if heads of states says dance, they dance Don't see what they can offer the UK that is in any way substantive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dick dasterdly Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said: life is hard being a PM - struggle a long time to agree on a deal ends up with a deal, in fact the best deal there is, it is so good that nobody wants it life is not fair on politicians just saw in a Swedish MSM that they consider Brexit is in the process of becoming a farce moderate language - indeed guess many voters are becoming fed up/tired with politicians, entering the "contempt of politicians" state "guess many voters are becoming fed up/tired with politicians, entering the "contempt of politicians" state" Agree entirely, and it's hardly suprising..... I've had nothing but contempt for the vast majority of politicians for decades. ☹️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sotsira Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Credit where credit is due, at least TM has finally come to her senses and cancelled yesterday's vote realising that the backstop being indefinite is unacceptable. If an agreement is reached to remove it, then this could actually get through parliament when it's eventually voted on. As long as she gets supported by her Tory members & the DUP. I feel the rest of the opposition members will vote against her whatever she brings to the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melvinmelvin Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 37 minutes ago, bristolboy said: Don't see what they can offer the UK that is in any way substantive. you certainly have a point there if one ripped out this backstop/customs union stuff I would guess it would relatively easy to make the deal so that there is a clear visible end to the relationship with eu, ie not open ended as it is now could be more palatable (not to DUPers but to the rest of UK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basil B Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 12 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said: Most of the trading world has trade agreements with their most important trading partners... which is often their neighbours... We that is logical, and you do not have to be some brain box to understand that, but the Brexiteers seem hell bent on redesigning the wheel. Just wait until they find out the earth is not flat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metisdead Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 An off topic deflection post has been removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melvinmelvin Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 9 hours ago, sotsira said: Credit where credit is due, at least TM has finally come to her senses and cancelled yesterday's vote realising that the backstop being indefinite is unacceptable. If an agreement is reached to remove it, then this could actually get through parliament when it's eventually voted on. As long as she gets supported by her Tory members & the DUP. I feel the rest of the opposition members will vote against her whatever she brings to the table. 2 Credit where credit is due, at least TM has finally come to her senses and cancelled yesterday's vote realising that the backstop being indefinite is unacceptable. what kind of a country is UK, I find this quite incredible that this should happen in a "normal" European country TM is an unelected backstager - made PM in an obscure Tory meeting and she instructs parliament on what they can discuss when and make up their minds on when? just bloody incredible - UK is not far from Thailand and ChanOcha - unelected dictator ruling the HoC the deal is on the table it has been presented parliament now has all the underlying legal considerations parliament is not sovereign mama says cannot discuss mama says cannot decide on deal probably the most important issue for UK for years and the dictator says - parliament can't make up their minds on this cause I am busy UK is a disgrace - pretty close to a dictatorship silly unelected woman curtails the parliament in what they can make up their minds about jeeez how do you expect to be taken seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 20 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said: The sum of all the trade gains by being outside of the EU will not make up for the loss of some trade ground to the EU. Trade is often driven by proximity and familiarity (or low cost - but generally if that is the case it would go to countries that are actually low cost). The driving force behind leaving the EU has more to do with the four freedoms (i.e. the protecting of part of the economy - mainly labour services) -- but not accepting that when you take something off the table the other side will remove other things from the table as well. The belief that the UK would be able to maintain the relationship with the EU completely without being a member of the EU - was never possible. There really are only 3 basic models: CETA (trade agreement only), being a member of the EU or being completely out. The agreement as it stands now was always going to be a transitory agreement in one direction or another. (the Norway option is no option since it is basically taking what the UK has now - and giving up representation - but accepting everything that is decided in the EU). Any trade agreement in itself is a surrender of some sovereignty, sovereignty in a world that is so interconnected is an illusion. There really is nothing to renegotiate - and those that think they are are not being realistic... Any 'movement' that looks like it is some change or renegotiation - is more than likely just going to be a PR move - nothing of substance. Would you want Canada to sign up to a deal with the USA-for instance- that severely curtailed its ability to forge trading relationships with the rest of the world? That created a border in Canada that was porous? That allowed Canada to be flooded with people from 27 countries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stag4 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 hours ago, Basil B said: We that is logical, and you do not have to be some brain box to understand that, but the Brexiteers seem hell bent on redesigning the wheel. Just wait until they find out the earth is not flat... What part of not wanting to be in a political union do you not understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stag4 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 hours ago, Basil B said: We that is logical, and you do not have to be some brain box to understand that, but the Brexiteers seem hell bent on redesigning the wheel. Just wait until they find out the earth is not flat... What part of not wanting to be in a political union do you not understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkkcanuck8 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 4 hours ago, mommysboy said: Would you want Canada to sign up to a deal with the USA-for instance- that severely curtailed its ability to forge trading relationships with the rest of the world? That created a border in Canada that was porous? That allowed Canada to be flooded with people from 27 countries? The 27 nations are are all of a reasonable level for the most part (or at least the bulk of them). The European Union is a union of states, and the free movement of labour is one of those freedoms. I would have no problem with Canada joining the EU (though the charter would prevent that since Canada is not in Europe and to be in the EU you must). The UK is not curtailed from trading relationships with the world as such -- it has just been transferred to the EU as a whole to negotiate trade with foreign countries. The EU as a group has much more clout than one individual nation. Canada use to have a 'porous' border with the US. In fact you could just walk across the border at my great-grandparents farm and do shopping or something and walk back across the farm land to home... it was not taken that seriously. Border towns have/had services (for smaller communities) shared across the border - busing of students; fire fighters; other emergency responders... which have to a certain extent been disrupted by border stupidity. Last I checked more than half the population of Toronto is foreign born... and to be quite honest it is a much more interesting city than when I was young... at that time Toronto was pretty boring and I was more interested in moving to Montreal when I graduated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tebee Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny41 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 22 minutes ago, tebee said: @City_Livery_SM A #hardBrexit will destroy the last 40 years of economic progress in the UK. We must #Remain in order to prosper. We must #StopBrexit. #PeoplesVote if necessary Somewhat Bias i Think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 9 hours ago, stag4 said: What part of not wanting to be in a political union do you not understand? The part that means the pound now dropping to 40.97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tebee Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Thai Life Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 hours ago, Grouse said: The part that means the pound now dropping to 40.97 I'd say it's the uncertainty around Brexit that's driving the f-x rates, rather than Brexit itself. And a huge amount of that uncertainty has been driven by remainers seeking to subvert the referendum result, including May. Carney is another prominent remainer whose politically motivated and carefully timed pronouncements on behalf of the BoE have not exactly helped f-x rates. The CBI have a certain amount of culpability too. Had we gone for the free trade approach offered by Tusk and Barnier, and initially favoured by May circa her Lancaster House speech, there would have been much less uncertainty, and therefore much greater f-x stability. You've been around long enough to know that the major depreciation of sterling against the baht occurred well before Brexit, and that there will be a correction once we get some semblance of certainty - as far as there ever is certainty in politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolboy Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, My Thai Life said: You've been around long enough to know that the major depreciation of sterling against the baht occurred well before Brexit, and that there will be a correction once we get some semblance of certainty - as far as there ever is certainty in politics. Simply untrue. There were 2 major depreciations of the pound vs. the baht and the second was during the period encompassing brexit. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Thai Life Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, bristolboy said: Simply untrue. There were 2 major depreciations of the pound vs. the baht and the second was during the period encompassing brexit. I suggest you look at the 10 year or longer trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolboy Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, My Thai Life said: I suggest you look at the 10 year or longer trend. Had you followed the link I provided you would find that it takes you to a page that lets you look at the GBP vs. TB for the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolboy Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 23 minutes ago, My Thai Life said: You've been around long enough to know that the major depreciation of sterling against the baht occurred well before Brexit, and that there will be a correction once we get some semblance of certainty - as far as there ever is certainty in politics. Here's a link to a graph that shows the value of the GPB vs. a basket of currencies of its most important trading partners. It can go back as far as 1984. https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-effective-exchange-rates/GBP-history#charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Thai Life Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, bristolboy said: Had you followed the link I provided you would find that it takes you to a page that lets you look at the GBP vs. TB for the last 10 years. Actually, I used that URL prior to my OP to confim the accuracy of my statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolboy Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, My Thai Life said: Actually, I used that URL prior to my OP to confim the accuracy of my statement. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Thai Life Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Exactly. Now plot the Euro against the baht over the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolboy Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, My Thai Life said: Exactly. Now plot the Euro against the baht over the same period. I don't know what your point is about the GPB vs. the Baht is. But the fact is that the graph clearly shows a sharp and up to now lasting decline in the GBP at the time of Brexit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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