Winter is coming for Thai politics as old wine offered in new bottles

[webfact]

Winter is coming for Thai politics as old wine offered in new bottles

By Punchada Sirivunnabood 
Special to The Nation

 

 

Before winter comes to Westeros in “Game of Thrones”, Thailand will witness cut-throat competition for its own political hot seat in an election scheduled for February 24.
 

Thais looking forward to positive changes in the country’s political environment might be disappointed, though. All signs are that politics will return to the past rather than step into the future.

 

On November 26, over 100 politicians – mostly from the embattled Pheu Thai Party – showed up at the Election Commission to resign from their parties and switch political affiliations. Election candidates are legally required to join a party no less than 90 days before the election, hence the rush to jump ship.

 

After seizing power four years ago, the military government promised to reform the corrupt Thai political scene. But the mass switch of parties is a repeat of events 20 years ago, suggesting the junta’s reform pledge was empty.

 

Figures from both the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties have defected, mostly to the Phalang Pracharat Party (PP). Factions leaving Pheu Thai include the Sam Mit (Three Friends) group of about 60 former MPs led by Somsak Thepsuthin, Suriya Jungrungreangkit and Somkid Jatusripitak, all of whom played prominent roles in pro-Thaksin governments; the Bann Rim Nam Faction led by Suchart Tancharoen (30 members); the Paknam Faction led by Akarawat Asavahame (10 members); the Wang Bua Ban Faction led by Warathep Rathanakon (seven members) and the former red shirts including co-leader Suporn Attawong.

 

At least 17 Democrat former lawmakers also switched to PP, including Sakontee Phattiyakul and Phuthipong Punnakan. Small and medium-size parties also lost politicians to PP, including Palangchon, a dominant party in eastern Thailand, and at least six politicians from the Bhumjaithai and Chartthaipattana parties.

 

The defections of famous politicians with strong political bases are a double-edged sword for the PP. They will strengthen the party’s chances of securing more seats in the election, but the PP could also be pulled in many directions as factions and veteran politicians seek to maximise their benefits from switching allegiances. Can PP leaders manage political bargaining to control these competing interests, as Thaksin did in his Thai Rak Thai and successor parties? If it fails, the PP will have difficulty maintaining solidarity in its ranks, which may later affect the government’s stability.

 

Many Thais are hoping to see a new generation of political leadership emerge in the election. Unfortunately, most of the younger or new-face candidates taking part in this election are relatives of former politicians. Typical is the Thai Raksa Chart Party, which has been joined by a large number of former politicians’ family members. The Democrats are also trying to promote a new generation, but the party’s “New Dem” programme is packed with sons and daughters of famous politicians. Thai parties seem unable to find a fresh and capable young generation with no political ties to compete in the election, unlike examples from Malaysia (Syed Saddiq and Tsanara Amany from PSI) and Indonesia (Faldo Maldini from PAN). Ironically enough, some Thai parties have cited “respect” for politicians who have defected from their ranks as the reason for not fielding new capable candidates to replace them.

 

One party with plenty of fresh faces is Future Forward led by Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, but it will find it difficult to gain enough votes to secure parliamentary seats. As long as candidates with strong political bases compete, it is hard for new politicians to make an impact in constituencies. The PP has decided the best way forward is to attract veterans from other parties, reaffirming the role of powerful politicians in their district.

 

The result is that the election will be dominated by the same old faces. Some will compete under their old banner, others will switch allegiance, but the power of factions in Thai politics will be revitalised. The new electoral system will likely result in a coalition government formed of small and medium-size parties, who will enjoy high bargaining power. Fresh-faced candidates with no existing political ties will find it hard to break through. Political families will maintain their grip on local strongholds by transferring political power to relatives and associates.

 

The lack of party affiliation together with the role of factions will weaken parties and their internal organisation. Thailand looks set to return to the politics of the 1990s, with parties existing primarily as vehicles for personalities, factions playing powerful roles, unstable coalitions, and political families enjoying strong influence.

 

Punchada Sirivunnabood is an associate professor at Mahidol University’s Faculty of Social Science and Humanities.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30360514

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-12-17

[YetAnother]

8 minutes ago, webfact said:

suggesting the junta’s reform pledge was empty.

the fact they didnt even try suggests that there never was any real intent

[PatOngo]

It still tastes like vinegar!

[kannot]

Well and  truly corked

[Lungstib]

Thai politicians are generally elderly wealthy males who get involved to keep their businesses making profit. They are then looked up to as higher class society no matter how they made that money. Then there are the military politicians, also elderly male and wealthy, and also seen as 'phu yai' who must be wai-ed and revered. Ordinary working class people have been completely by-passed by this system as there is no way for them to climb this social ladder. This lack of equality ensures that the same families and people keep coming back to haunt the ordinary citizens. Until this rigid class system is overturned you cant expect vibrant young minds to jump into the election process, they are too busy working to feed, house and keep themselves alive. Hence representation by the rich, for the rich, to ensure continuation. 85 years and counting.

[yellowboat]

We all knew when the green team took power, a positive future, hope and fun were crushed.  If Thais stay passive and uninterested in their future,  they will regret it.  Very few are looking out for the good of the country, just themselves.

[jayboy]

This strikes me as an intelligent and perceptive analysis.I wish all such articles could be of this high quality.The scenario outlined is to my mind extremely plausible - and depressing.

So the hopes of all have probably come to naught whether traditionalist or progressive.

And that fearful resolution, though unpredictable in form or fury, comes a step closer


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[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, jayboy said:

This strikes me as an intelligent and perceptive analysis.I wish all such articles could be of this high quality.The scenario outlined is to my mind extremely plausible - and depressing.

So the hopes of all have probably come to naught whether traditionalist or progressive.

And that fearful resolution, though unpredictable in form or fury, comes a step closer


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

Spot on with your first four sentences. 

 

Not sure about the last sentence though. The usual response seems to be a shrug, smile and "that's the way it is attitude". Going to take a lot to change that. 

[IAMHERE]

3 hours ago, PatOngo said:

It still tastes like vinegar!

Got to agree, needs more corn syrup.????

[jayboy]

 
Spot on with your first four sentences. 
 
Not sure about the last sentence though. The usual response seems to be a shrug, smile and "that's the way it is attitude". Going to take a lot to change that. 

You may well be right.Sometimes the resolution of an issue can be very long term and very opaque in terms of how it will come about.

But when it does it can be very sudden and take even experts by surprise. Think for example of the collapse of the Soviet Union when the old regime as in Thailand had all the might to threaten and intimidate its citizens.

In Thailand we can at any rate see the factors at work - and we can conclude the mixture is not stable.How long the broth will simmer away without spilling is I suppose what we will be discussing in the coming years.

My guess is that the catalyst for change will be a major event of some sort.The state of the economy might be key - and remember that history shows revolutions take place not when the people are ground underfoot ( nobody suggests this is the case in Thailand) but when things are getting better.


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[Artisi]

9 hours ago, IAMHERE said:

Got to agree, needs more corn syrup.????

You can bet there will be plenty of "corn" probably exceeding the rotten rice scheme of the last lot. 

[DrTuner]

At least the old wine is now a lot more expensive than it was before, thanks to tax hikes. 

[candide]

Back to the 90s! It's not a failure for the Junta, as it was the objective!

[tomta]

The cliched idiom "Old wine in new bottles", so beloved of Thai political commentators and used in 99% of articles, is the stalest old wine in very old bottles. It is so cringeworthy. Come on, think of a fresh original way to describe things, pundits and professors. The context of what they are criticizing makes the cliche, however, sadly ironic.