Jump to content
BANGKOK 17 February 2019 09:34
NCC1701A

South Warned of First Tropical Storm Since 1962 Disaster

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

"Forecasters at the UN’s Global Disaster Alerting and Coordinating System said the tropical depression already became a tropical storm this morning and winds will peak at 83kph on Thursday."

 

http://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2019/01/01/south-warned-of-first-tropical-storm-since-1962-disaster/

 

It is big:

 

https://www.windy.com/?10.034,102.678,6

Edited by NCC1701A
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Isn't it supposed to be the cool and dry season in this part of the world?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Isn't it supposed to be the cool and dry season in this part of the world?

Not Southern Thailand, NE Monsoon runs late September/ early October until late December/ early January.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lucky with the high wind shear impacting its development, this could of been real nasty. Still could turn out to be a big rain maker. JTWC and the Ventusky site differ at which point it crosses the peninsula.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Kron said:

Was not Typhoon Gay in 1989 the last Tropical storm to hit the south. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Gay_(1989)

 

 

 

Exactly the point I was going to make. That thing hit just before I arrived here and I don't remember anything as bad hitting the South since. Fortunately Songkhla Lake is still relatively low for this time of the year. You can already see the swirling effect of the storm here.

 

The graphic shown in the original story, which shows a landfall near Pak Panang in NST, seems irresponsible to me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Kron said:

Was not Typhoon Gay in 1989 the last Tropical storm to hit the south. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Gay_(1989)

Ah, but that was a Cat 1 Typhoon, no longer a Tropical Storm 🙂  whoever did the research for the article probably just Googled 'Gulf of Thailand Tropical Storm' and got 1962.

 

I see Tropical Depression 36 is now a named Tropical Storm Pabuk, this far out there's a fair degree of uncertainty as to where it will end up, the Tropical Storm Risk website gives probability plots, below is the 120hr tropical storm wind probabilities.

 

2019-01-02 11_27_10-Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great for the kitesurfers, until things get "too windy".   Looks like the eye of the storm will run through Chumphon.

 

Thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interaction with land and wind shear will keep the wind velocity down but low lying areas are looking at a big flood potential with some models predicting 3 - 5 inches a rain per 3 hr period. Probably pass south of here in Hua Hin, but still planning for power loss and restricted travel due to flooding of streets. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think there have been enough similar systems to allow for accurate forecasting based on modelling. I think those forecasting are just taking into account the rotation of the earth and the high pressure systems (see isobar charts) that could be pulling it north.

 

The worst-case scenario is that this thing veers north and hits near Bangkok, with a storm surge and flooding. If that happens it could also pick up a lot of energy in the shallow gulf and possibly even become a true typhoon. Fortunately this would not coincide with a full moon, but it could still be really bad.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thus far, nothing whatsoever on the ground to distinguish this system from a typical, rainy day in the monsoon season.

 

The center track seems to be continuing due west, not NNW as predicted. Good news for Songkhla and the other Gulf Coast provinces.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WTPN31 PGTW 030300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/   

1. TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 012 CORRECTED   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 6.0N 105.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 6.3N 104.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 7.2N 102.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
      
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 8.0N 100.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
     
      ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 8.7N 98.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 10.6N 95.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 13.0N 92.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 15.9N 90.8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
  
    ---

REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 6.1N 105.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 030000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 
032100Z AND 040300Z.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...