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BANGKOK 22 March 2019 00:51
NCC1701A

South Warned of First Tropical Storm Since 1962 Disaster

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looks like max wind speed at land fall. 50 knots with 65 knot gusts.  One knot equals 1.852 KPH. So 50 knots per hour X 1.852 equals 92.6 KPH or 57.53 MPH.

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4 hours ago, phuketsub said:

Thus far, nothing whatsoever on the ground to distinguish this system from a typical, rainy day in the monsoon season.

 

The center track seems to be continuing due west, not NNW as predicted. Good news for Songkhla and the other Gulf Coast provinces.

 

Been raining in Hat Yai since midnight last night, just steady rain.

 

The change in the storm track is a little worrying, landfall has moved steadily south from Chumphon, to Surat Thani, to NST, now Songkhla.  I do hope that trend continues and it ends up at Kota Bharu - apologies to the residents of Kota Bharu but 'inshallah'.

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17 minutes ago, Stocky said:

Been raining in Hat Yai since midnight last night, just steady rain.

 

The change in the storm track is a little worrying, landfall has moved steadily south from Chumphon, to Surat Thani, to NST, now Songkhla.  I do hope that trend continues and it ends up at Kota Bharu - apologies to the residents of Kota Bharu but 'inshallah'.

I am still confused as to why all the storm track projections have the system moving northwest as it reaches the coast. It's been consistently heading due west and as such should make landfall in Kota Baru soon, though many agencies are still predicting landfall in NST. Seems weird to me, but perhaps they know something I don't. Anyway, hopefully we won't get hit too hard here in Ranode...

 

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17 minutes ago, phuketsub said:

I am still confused as to why all the storm track projections have the system moving northwest as it reaches the coast. It's been consistently heading due west and as such should make landfall in Kota Baru soon, though many agencies are still predicting landfall in NST. Seems weird to me, but perhaps they know something I don't. Anyway, hopefully we won't get hit too hard here in Ranode...

 

The forecaster at the JTWC seem confident it will swing NW within the next 12hrs.

 

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/wp3618prog.txt

 

I do hope they're wrong, I've a flight out of Hat Yai tomorrow and it's looking increasingly like that's not going to happen.

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2 hours ago, Stocky said:

The forecaster at the JTWC seem confident it will swing NW within the next 12hrs.

 

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/wp3618prog.txt

 

I do hope they're wrong, I've a flight out of Hat Yai tomorrow and it's looking increasingly like that's not going to happen.

I hope they're wrong too, but you can see the polar outflow channel he references pretty clearly on the Himawari radar...Anyway, best of luck with the flight out.

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interesting using the Ventusky website, you can toggle between  the various weather models. They give you three options, IKON the German model still sends the storm through Surat Thani, the GFS American NOAA model has it land at NST, whilst the GEM Canadian model thinks it will land further south just north of Songkhla, yours and my worst nightmare.

 

IKON or GFS should mean Hat Yai airport is fine, GEM would probably close it. Guess we'll see who's right tomorrow.

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The latest update from the Joint Typhoon Warning website shows the storm did indeed take a right turn. So the Canadian model is likely to be wrong, but will the American or German models prove more accurate?

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The eye is due East offshore of Ranode District here in Songkhla now now and the situation here is very windy, with very sustained winds around 50kph, but nothing like hurricane force. Still, these are the strongest sustained winds I have experienced in 30 years living in Thailand.

 

One papaya tree is down in the garden.

 

Most of the shops are closed and people are just hunkering down, waiting for it to pass. No major flooding and the rainfall is really nothing special for this time of year.

 

No power outages and Internet still working well. '

 

Public schools are all closed.

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Now expected that the brunt of the storm will hit Nakhon Si Thammarat and earlier than originally expected, I've seen mention of 3-4 PM.

 

Already flooding in Pak Phanong district there.

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Thai Rath Live predicting 5 meter waves to hit   - Nakhon Si thammarat/Songkhla area

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20 electric poles downed on the road between Muang and Pak Phanong districts

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https://forecasts.surfer.com

 

Check out here, toggle to East Asia, switch graphic to wind. You can also toggle the time.

 

This model looks like the center of storm's first landfall will be Talaem Phuk (the long peninsula jutting out from NST)

 

The time model is Tokyo, 2 hours ahead. Which puts first landfall sometime during the night, possibly 2-4 am.

 

The course of the storm will be due west heading and looks like it will slow down after passing the mountains, wind shear is likely minimal (as in wind shear that would disrupt the cyclone causing it to dissipate) due to the distance of the mountains from NST and low lying plains along the entire coast.

 

Please everyone use caution, as winds of 100kmph can be expected near the center.

 

Those of us in NST to Surat should prepare for the worst, I will check out the other models posted earlier.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

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I'm hearing much earlier predictions of landfall e.g. in the next 2 hours.

 

Thai military are now evacuating villages in   Tha Sala district.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, phuketsub said:

The eye is due East offshore of Ranode District here in Songkhla now now and the situation here is very windy, with very sustained winds around 50kph, but nothing like hurricane force. Still, these are the strongest sustained winds I have experienced in 30 years living in Thailand.

Seems landfall will split the German and NOAA models, just north of NST, but not as far north a Samui. Hat Yai airport was working fine, just rain and a strong breeze in Hat Yai this morning, plenty of rain overnight. Flight out was lumpy but nothing particularly bad.

 

No doubt the North South Highway will be cut by floods in poor old Thung Song, the locals must have webbed feet round there.

 

.

Edited by Stocky

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