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BANGKOK 19 January 2019 07:06
snoop1130

Brexit: Germany says not time to discuss Article 50 extension

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1 hour ago, Spidey said:

How do you figure that? Hypothetically, if all trade stops between us and Europe, we lose all of our trade, each member country loses only 1/27th of it's trade. Do the maths, we lose out far more than any one European country. Simples!

It's not as bad as all that. It's bad, but not that bad. The EU in toto has a GDP of about 18 trillion dollars. The UK's share is about 2.6 trillion dollars. Which means that a about 14 percent of the EU's GDP belongs to the UK. This doesn't track exactly with the amount of trade between the UK and the rest of the EU but it does give a clearer idea of their relative strengths.

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1 hour ago, mfd101 said:

On the assumption that the UK does eventually, one way or another, stagger through the exit door and out into the cold light of reality, I think that the 'old' [ie western] members of the EU will - despite some relatively minor damage to their economies - be glad to see the last of the Brits. Mostly more trouble than they're worth.

yes we will stop buying your goods lol

 

if only

 

trade will continue between the EU and UK, if it doesn't then the EU will implode and the UK will still continue trading across Europe - win win for the UK not so sure about the EU

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1 hour ago, evadgib said:

Germany says what?

 

Yes, the massively powerful AFD may push for an exit from the EU. That will surely terrify the more than 80 percent of the electorate who want no part of that.

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1 hour ago, Spidey said:

How do you figure that? Hypothetically, if all trade stops between us and Europe, we lose all of our trade, each member country loses only 1/27th of it's trade. Do the maths, we lose out far more than any one European country. Simples!

you are making a common error regarding UK trade with the EU 27, 90% of it actually only involves 6 of the 27 and those 6 rely heavily on UK trade

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31 minutes ago, smedly said:

you are making a common error regarding UK trade with the EU 27, 90% of it actually only involves 6 of the 27 and those 6 rely heavily on UK trade

yes it would cause a murmur,probably 0.2%ish of GDP to the big 6 and nowt to the rest,meanwhile the UK loses 2-3% or in plain english a full blown recession.leave voters can say what they want but its the likely outcome,most MPs know it hence the change in thinking.It will take 6-12 months to kick in but it will come

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5 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Maas said a no-deal Brexit “might have a negative effect on jobs in Germany and that is something that we intend to prevent at any possible cost.”

So basically isn't he saying that in the end they will indeed consider an extension? Which would be a shame for both sides actually, as would be a new referendum.

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15 minutes ago, bomber said:

yes it would cause a murmur,probably 0.2%ish of GDP to the big 6 and nowt to the rest,meanwhile the UK loses 2-3% or in plain english a full blown recession.leave voters can say what they want but its the likely outcome,most MPs know it hence the change in thinking.It will take 6-12 months to kick in but it will come

Well, I ran the figures for Germany and their exports to the UK account for about 2.75 percent of GDP. So that's a considerable figure. 

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2 hours ago, Spidey said:

we were always going to end up in this mess no matter who did the negotiating on the British side.

I agree, however the continued migration to the UK had to stop before it was too late to turn the clock back. 

Ignoring trade, the UK could not sustain the continual increase of migrants (note not immigrants) each year (a ticking time bomb waiting to happen)

we are creating huge ghettos of migrants in every city. schools, NHS, city councils cannot cope. child birth is higher (up to 70%) to migrants than to UK citizens in some cities

If France were to hold a referendum, it is likely, they too would pull the plug

Where my parents live, English is the second language in many of the schools

Breaks my heart to say it but better a bomb now rather than a nuclear bomb later

As far as trade is concerned there is no evidence to prove that we will suffer or prosper, only propaganda (time will tell)

My only regret is that the time to recover from this mess will take 10 years or more, if ever

PS

i am one of those Knobs

 

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27 minutes ago, Dene16 said:

I agree, however the continued migration to the UK had to stop before it was too late to turn the clock back. 

Ignoring trade, the UK could not sustain the continual increase of migrants (note not immigrants) each year (a ticking time bomb waiting to happen)

we are creating huge ghettos of migrants in every city. schools, NHS, city councils cannot cope. child birth is higher (up to 70%) to migrants than to UK citizens in some cities

If France were to hold a referendum, it is likely, they too would pull the plug

Where my parents live, English is the second language in many of the schools

Breaks my heart to say it but better a bomb now rather than a nuclear bomb later

As far as trade is concerned there is no evidence to prove that we will suffer or prosper, only propaganda (time will tell)

My only regret is that the time to recover from this mess will take 10 years or more, if ever

PS

i am one of those Knobs

 

No EU nation even has a fertility rate at replacement level. Are you saying that migrants from the EU have a much higher fertility rate than the EU nations they come from?

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