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BANGKOK 27 March 2019 01:16
webfact

‘Overshooting’ baht raises fears of sluggish growth

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1 hour ago, Bundooman said:

We bow to your abundance of knowledge and teachings, oh Lord of Economics and lecturing and superiority. Please humbly forgive us errant posters who do not meet your sophisticated and wise ramblings. Thank you your Grace - truly we doooooooooooooo!

In defense of oldhippy, those Wikipedia stats were completely moronic.

Like if you calculate from the "prostitution in thailand" data. It implies  Thai GDP in 2003 was $143 billion, and then that GDP in 2015 just $64 billion (about 1/8th of what it actually is)

I have no idea who or what Havocscope is, but their figures are completely made up. Only a fool would reference them as being factual.

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2 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

If this is the case, 1% lets say, then what accounts for the other 99% of GDP ?

agriculture, manufactoring, services, government

 

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15 minutes ago, fullcave said:

Doesn't matter? Ha! Let me give you a clue. It will also effect exports. 

And imports in a positive way.

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1 minute ago, oldhippy said:

agriculture, manufactoring, services, government

 

 

Well I know that's the main industries but whats "your" breakdown of their relative % of GDP...

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26 minutes ago, JeezeLooeze said:

There' s always two sides to this equation and only one side is put forward in this article. For those who get paid in Baht its strength cheapens your overseas spending and the cost of imports. I suspect the BOT is maintaining higher interest rates so it has the option to lower them when the coming recession hits the globe in an attempt to stimulate growth. Recent attempts by the FED to do this have failed as it is caught between a rock and a hard place: a rate hike will increase the US debt burden to unsustainable levels whereas too low gives it no leeway to reduce even further (negative interest rates anybody?) to stimulate growth during the upcoming recession. My take - exchange your crappy paper fiat for some Thai gold while the Baht is still strong and gold is still dirt cheap!

I agree, time to make lemonade 

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8 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

agriculture, manufactoring, services, government

 

Tourism falls in the `Transport` category in trading economics, so here's a little something:
image.png.fa39c872116d76b98ecb67b35df1ab72.png

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30 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

If tourism would account for 7 or 10 or 30 % of GDP, that would mean - ceteris paribus - that 7 or 10 or 30 % of the Thai labour force is employed in the tourist industry.

That would not leave much for agriculture, manufacturing, services and government.

That's the 1st support you've offered to me to counter my argument, and, I must say, ipso facto, it is indeed weak. 

 

You're saying something like, having been pulled over for drink driving and tested above the legal limit for intoxication,

"well, officer, I cannot be drunk because it would illegal to be drunk and I never

break the law."

 

Edited by Fex Bluse

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4 hours ago, oldhippy said:

For a Thai the exchange rate does not matter. The exchange rate only matters to tourists, and tourism is a very small part of GDP.

Tell that to the exporters who are relied on quite heavily regarding the Thai economy!!

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I doubt that the tourism figures include the thousands of foreign expats that live and contribute to the economy. Same as the traffic death stats that are low balled to save face. Its the Asian way you know!

Geezer

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Old hippy says the exchange rate does not matter to Thais but of course it does. Everybody in this country has to buy goods which are imported or has parts which are imported and this is obviously affected by the strength  of the baht. There is a growing middle class which like the finer things in life e.g. wines,steaks etc and to say Thais are not affected is nonsense.

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12 minutes ago, Time Traveller said:

Wrong conclusion. Not all workers in each industry get paid the same. So the proportion of revenue generated by one sector, does not imply that the total number of those workers in that industry make up the same proportion of the Thai labor force.

So you suggest that workers in the tourist industry earn significantly more than than other workers?

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2 minutes ago, Scottie12 said:

Old hippy says the exchange rate does not matter to Thais but of course it does. Everybody in this country has to buy goods which are imported or has parts which are imported and this is obviously affected by the strength  of the baht. There is a growing middle class which like the finer things in life e.g. wines,steaks etc and to say Thais are not affected is nonsense.

We were talking about the tourist industry in Thailand.

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