Thai central bank chief - Baht strength from current account surplus, not rate hike

[webfact]

Thai central bank chief - Baht strength from current account surplus, not rate hike

 

FILE PHOTO: Thailand’s Central Bank Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob is seen during an interview with Reuters at the Bank of Thailand headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand March 14, 2018. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Appreciation of the Thai baht is due to a weaker dollar and current account surplus, Bank of Thailand governor said on Thursday.

 

This year, the baht has strengthened about 3.9 percent against the dollar.

 

Factors strengthening baht include "a high current account surplus, due to trade and tourism revenue recovering," Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob told reporters, adding that the gain was not rooted in December's interest rate hike.

 

In 2018, there was a $37 billion current account surplus, he said.

 

This year, there was $400 million outflow in bonds and an inflow of $100 million into capital markets, resulting in a net outflow of $300 million, he said.

 

"We are concerned about the baht moving too fast. We're ready to take care of irregular movement," Veerathai said, adding that Thailand would be careful to avoid any accusation of manipulating the baht.

 

(Reporting by Kitiphong Thaichareon; Writing by Chayut Setboonsarng; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

 



-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-02-14

[keith101]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

"We are concerned about the baht moving too fast. We're ready to take care of irregular movement," Veerathai said, adding that Thailand would be careful to avoid any accusation of manipulating the baht. 

People from around the world have been talking about this happening for years now so a little late to avoid the accusations .

[ukrules]

There is probably only one thing that can destroy Thailands tourism industry permanently and that's the Baht being too strong.

 

That and a widespread civil war.

 

[smedly]

what goes up must come down, problem with Thailand is greed and corruption drive everything - when the baht comes down it will come crashing down, first sign will be a sudden increase in inflation - and can get out of control very quickly 

[JAG]

9 minutes ago, ukrules said:

There is probably only one thing that can destroy Thailands tourism industry permanently and that's the Baht being too strong.

 

That and a widespread civil war.

 

 

1 minute ago, smedly said:

what goes up must come down, problem with Thailand is greed and corruption drive everything - when the baht comes down it will come crashing down, first sign will be a sudden increase in inflation - and can get out of control very quickly 

Geese, and golden eggs...

[overherebc]

9 minutes ago, ukrules said:

There is probably only one thing that can destroy Thailands tourism industry permanently and that's the Baht being too strong.

 

That and a widespread civil war.

 

Buy loads of tanks quick.

[salavan]

The only way is up up up up

[DrTuner]

I thought tourism was just a teeny weeny source of foreign currency and Thailand, the supreme 1st world powerhouse, got it's $ from hi-tech exports and IP rights. I guess the cash flowing through the bar cashier is piling up.

[marcusarelus]

10 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I thought tourism was just a teeny weeny source of foreign currency and Thailand, the supreme 1st world powerhouse, got it's $ from hi-tech exports and IP rights. I guess the cash flowing through the bar cashier is piling up.

Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 34 percent of GDP. Services constitute around 44 percent of GDP. Within services, the most important are wholesale and retail trade (13 percent of GDP); transport, storage and communication (7 percent of GDP); hotels and restaurants (5 percent of GDP) and public administration, defense and social security (4.5 percent of GDP). Agriculture also makes a significant contribution - around 13 percent of GDP.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp-growth-annual

[marcusarelus]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

what goes up must come down, problem with Thailand is greed and corruption drive everything - when the baht comes down it will come crashing down, first sign will be a sudden increase in inflation - and can get out of control very quickly 

The worlds economy and population and production has been going up for 2000 years.  When do you think it will come down? 

[marcusarelus]

Thailand sells more than it buys.  It's pretty basic. 

[carstenp]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

There is probably only one thing that can destroy Thailands tourism industry permanently and that's the Baht being too strong.

 

That and a widespread civil war.

 

I do agree. For me personally I'm going to leave Thailand after more than 7 years here. I do feel I had a good income to live here in a 3 world country , but with the month income reduced from more than 120000 baht every month to only 96000 over the last years, its not worth it anymore. 

[NCC1701A]

Thailand is doing great. nothing wrong with the Baht and there will not be repeat of 1997 no matter how much we would like to see more baht for the what ever you got. 

 

and plan your retirement in the coming decades around the baht and SEA growing in economic strength and your home currency except the US dollar just going down in value over time.    

[carstenp]

5 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

Thailand is doing great. nothing wrong with the Baht and there will not be repeat of 1997 no matter how much we would like to see more baht for the what ever you got. 

 

and plan your retirement in the coming decades around the baht and SEA growing in economic strength and your home currency except the US dollar just going down in value over time.    

Your are right. I've seen analyses of the USD/THB going to 25-28 long term

[carstenp]

 

For other to read. From last year why many believe the Bath is undervalued.

 

https://www.cfr.org/blog/thailand-really-and-i-mean-really-close-meeting-treasurys-manipulation-criteria

 

Quote

The Thai baht did appreciate in 2017, and appreciated by a bit more in early 2018. This shouldn't be surprising. Most countries that intervene do so to limit the pace of appreciation, not to drive the currency down—e.g. they tolerate market pressure to depreciate, but not market pressure to appreciate. In the first part of 2017, Thailand's central bank looks to have intervened to keep the baht from appreciating through 34 before shifting to defending 33 (against the dollar). With the dollar's broad weakness in 2018, they are now possibly defending the 32 mark.

Today they are defending 31 mark

[bokningar]

1 hour ago, marcusarelus said:

The worlds economy and population and production has been going up for 2000 years.  When do you think it will come down? 

We have a lot of instable people in charge of nuclear capabilities right now, you can pick according to you political view of the world. So why not?

 

[smedly]

1 hour ago, marcusarelus said:

The worlds economy and population and production has been going up for 2000 years.  When do you think it will come down? 

I believe we talking about Thailand

 

Here is your homework for today - investigate how many countries have had a major economic crash in the last 10 years

[MadMuhammad]

4 hours ago, DrTuner said:

I thought tourism was just a teeny weeny source of foreign currency and Thailand, the supreme 1st world powerhouse, got it's $ from hi-tech exports and IP rights. I guess the cash flowing through the bar cashier is piling up.

I’d be fairly confident the bars wouldn’t really be paying their fair share of taxes on their earnings. Sure the cash Eve risky goes back into the system but I have a feeling a huge percentage is undeclared income 

[HampiK]

All the people who changed enough money before are now happy, that they not have to change with the low rates in the next few months. The only question is, how long till the baht become worse again. a few months, a few years? As someone told before it's always an up and down. I remember much stronger thai baht about 10-15 years back. I hope it will not become that strong again, but who knows. I also would appreciate when the baht become lower again, but I have still enough funds in Thailand so not need to worry.

[Huayrat]

Fixed..

[madmitch]

26 minutes ago, HampiK said:

All the people who changed enough money before are now happy, that they not have to change with the low rates in the next few months. The only question is, how long till the baht become worse again. a few months, a few years? As someone told before it's always an up and down. I remember much stronger thai baht about 10-15 years back. I hope it will not become that strong again, but who knows. I also would appreciate when the baht become lower again, but I have still enough funds in Thailand so not need to worry.

I thiink your timescales are a bit awry. 10 to 15 years ago the baht was much weaker against all major currencies. I think you need to go pre 1997 for the last time the baht was anywhere near its current strength.

[Number 6]

Raising rates ALWAYS strengthens a currency. It's a given.

[hansnl]

15 hours ago, overherebc said:

Buy loads of tanks quick.

Most civil wars are not really tank wars, and the quip isn't funny.

[Ulic]

16 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 34 percent of GDP. Services constitute around 44 percent of GDP. Within services, the most important are wholesale and retail trade (13 percent of GDP); transport, storage and communication (7 percent of GDP); hotels and restaurants (5 percent of GDP) and public administration, defense and social security (4.5 percent of GDP). Agriculture also makes a significant contribution - around 13 percent of GDP.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp-growth-annual

Of course, but GDP is mostly domestic consumption so is not a huge contributor to foreign currency accounts. Only exports contribute to foreign currency accounts. Even with those exports, you have to subtract any foreign content costs to the contribution of the current account surplus. Tourism, on the other hand, contributes from 11%-20% of GDP depending on whose figures you believe and between 80-90 percent of Thailands tourism is foreign. Tourism and foreign retirees contribute massively to the foreign account surplus. When tourism drops the foreign account surplus will drop and with it the baht. Until then I would not expect much change. That said the Chinese like to weaponize tourism and if the Chinese government discourage tourism to Thailand things can change quickly.

[IAMHERE]

17 hours ago, ukrules said:

There is probably only one thing that can destroy Thailands tourism industry permanently and that's the Baht being too strong.

 

That and a widespread civil war.

 

Might be where the dual pricing would come in  handy for falang; cost two to ten times more to kill falangs. Good Deal that.

[gamini]

19 hours ago, smedly said:

what goes up must come down, problem with Thailand is greed and corruption drive everything - when the baht comes down it will come crashing down, first sign will be a sudden increase in inflation - and can get out of control very quickly 

Thai bashers have been saying this for years, but the baht keeps going up.  

[marcusarelus]

17 hours ago, smedly said:

I believe we talking about Thailand

 

Here is your homework for today - investigate how many countries have had a major economic crash in the last 10 years

I wrote, "The worlds economy and population and production has been going up for 2000 years.  When do you think it will come down"

 

You did not answer the question - instead tried to divert the statement.  If you want me to educate you first you have to answer my simple question.  

[HampiK]

14 hours ago, madmitch said:

I thiink your timescales are a bit awry. 10 to 15 years ago the baht was much weaker against all major currencies. I think you need to go pre 1997 for the last time the baht was anywhere near its current strength.

Not really. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

Baht to US$ in 2010-2013 was even worse. Maybe the years are not entire correct. But I remember the Baht to Swiss was down to 28. Right now it's 31...  In average most swiss are happy with 33-34.. but yes now it's low for us too. 

Let's check again in maybe 6 months, 12 months… we will see how it looks then...

[dinsdale]

Google Thai Baht manipulation. I'm no economist but I would like to know how a developing nation which is still third world in many respects has arguably the strongest currency in the world.????

[marcusarelus]

10 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Google Thai Baht manipulation. I'm no economist but I would like to know how a developing nation which is still third world in many respects has arguably the strongest currency in the world.????

They have a ton of foreign currency in the bank.  And.  They export more than they import.  And they have low unemployment (yes really and notwithstanding the farmers that you know). And. Their GNP has gone up every year at a nice steady clip for example it is twice the size of Vietnam a nation of more people. They aren't starting any wars or pulling out of giant markets like the European union and that always helps.   

 

Check bond rating and economic outlook by any of the credit rating agencies.