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Prayuth most favoured PM candidate while Pheu Thai party leads – Nida Poll


rooster59

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Why are the pollsters asking who the electorate wants as PM? They do not vote for the PM, they vote for the PM's, local and party list.

 

It is the 500 or so elected MP's who vote for the PM out of the candidates that have been nominated by their parties during registration. If they cannot come up with a clear majority, the (junta appointed) senate of 250 fine and upstanding stooges er citizens comes along and adds their votes to the equation.

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2 hours ago, Eligius said:

So instead I'll wring my hands and whisper behind my fingers and say: 'There is nothing the Thais can do. Absolutely nothing. It's not their fault. The military have got guns, you see? Nothing to be done. Nothing, nothing, nothing. Oh- let's go and play Facebook now and send some photos of our latest meal. After all, there is NOTHING that the nearly 70 million Thais can do about ANY of what is happening in Thailand. No - they have no responsibility for any of it at all. They cannot do a thing. Don't blame them. They have no part in any of it .... .....!'

 

I know that you (and many of us) wish for change, but I really do think that you should, before criticising the Thai people for not moving against the junta, despite the laughably obvious election rigging process currently underway, (and of which I am certain the Thai people are fully aware), consider a very simple fact.

 

As you point out, the military have guns. What is more, they have often shown themselves prepared to use them. The current crop of military leaders (on both sides of any current faction struggle within the military) have demonstrated a willingness to use those guns. The events in Bangkok in 2010 are seared into the memories of a whole generation, the generation which would have to move if the junta is to be turned out. It is one thing to urge action, it is quite another to stand in the front ranks of a crowd, 50 metres from ranks of soldiers aiming automatic weapons at you, knowing that they have snipers (they used them) and are prepared to shoot wounded and medical staff (they did).

 

It will have to be something major to spark off such a revolt. Thaksin's money is not enough, stealing the government is not enough, stealing the election does not, on its own, look to be enough. I suspect it will be a "crackdown" on protests, (in themselves not particularly significant). which leads to shootings and killing of protestors. I also suspect that the military's eventual undoing will be as the result of a vote - not a ballot - the conscript soldiers, who make up the vast majority of the army, and are predominantly called from the very population, demographic and geographically, which will oppose the junta, will vote - with their feet.

 

There is another, totally different, perspective which may bear examination. What if, the general population, aware that the most likely conflict, perhaps leading to open fighting, is between certain factions, and have decided to keep out of the way - to sit this one out. My point about the conscripts voting with their feet still applies.

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I truly believe that any candidate, with the tiniest amount of gravitas and credibility could beat this little guy. He is despised by most Thais, for very good reasons. He has let the nation down. He is there to protect the elite, the super wealthy, those in power (his cronies) and those that are connected. He has done nothing for the average man or woman. Plus, he has the audacity to interrupt their favorite TV shows, with Quaker, puritan dribble. He has to go. He is holding the nation back on so many levels. 

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2 hours ago, Eligius said:

We all know it's a foregone conclusion. No suspense or doubt in any of this. Prayut (or at the very least the Military) will continue to rule Thailand with a draconian hand. Sadly, I do know quite a number of Thais who like Prayut and who support his regime (but it is certainly not the majority).

 

I'm tempted to say: 'Well, you let it happen, Thais, and are still letting it happen'. But people always criticise me for that sentiment.

 

So instead I'll wring my hands and whisper behind my fingers and say: 'There is nothing the Thais can do. Absolutely nothing. It's not their fault. The military have got guns, you see? Nothing to be done. Nothing, nothing, nothing. Oh- let's go and play Facebook now and send some photos of our latest meal. After all, there is NOTHING that the nearly 70 million Thais can do about ANY of what is happening in Thailand. No - they have no responsibility for any of it at all. They cannot do a thing. Don't blame them. They have no part in any of it .... .....!'

 

 

You sound like Bush telling the Kurds and Shia to stand up to Saddam........and then standing back and watching the massacre.

 

The question often quoted is "are you prepared to die for your cause"?

 

The real question is "are you prepared to kill for your cause?"

 

The "controllers" are, for sure.

 

And that's the only thing that will shift them.

 

Have you ever come within a thousand miles of having to make that decision?

 

How many people are you prepared to kill to save Thailand?

 

You don't need to be a registered voter or a citizen to do that.

 

History is full of men from foreign lands who fought, killed, and sometimes gave their lives for, other peoples freedom.

 

I believe the expression is "step up or shut up".

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, JAG said:

I know that you (and many of us) wish for change, but I really do think that you should, before criticising the Thai people for not moving against the junta, despite the laughably obvious election rigging process currently underway, (and of which I am certain the Thai people are fully aware), consider a very simple fact.

 

As you point out, the military have guns. What is more, they have often shown themselves prepared to use them. The current crop of military leaders (on both sides of any current faction struggle within the military) have demonstrated a willingness to use those guns. The events in Bangkok in 2010 are seared into the memories of a whole generation, the generation which would have to move if the junta is to be turned out. It is one thing to urge action, it is quite another to stand in the front ranks of a crowd, 50 metres from ranks of soldiers aiming automatic weapons at you, knowing that they have snipers (they used them) and are prepared to shoot wounded and medical staff (they did).

 

It will have to be something major to spark off such a revolt. Thaksin's money is not enough, stealing the government is not enough, stealing the election does not, on its own, look to be enough. I suspect it will be a "crackdown" on protests, (in themselves not particularly significant). which leads to shootings and killing of protestors. I also suspect that the military's eventual undoing will be as the result of a vote - not a ballot - the conscript soldiers, who make up the vast majority of the army, and are predominantly called from the very population, demographic and geographically, which will oppose the junta, will vote - with their feet.

 

There is another, totally different, perspective which may bear examination. What if, the general population, aware that the most likely conflict, perhaps leading to open fighting, is between certain factions, and have decided to keep out of the way - to sit this one out. My point about the conscripts voting with their feet still applies.

 

It will come.

 

Nobody knows what the catalyst will be.

 

But it will come.

 

In its own time.....not in the convenient 90min of a heroic movie or after 12 nicely spaced episodes (with commercial breaks for coffee) of "This is how xxxx five/ten/twenty/thirty year war was fought".

 

In its time, their time.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, tlandtday said:

I think this is a key election as the current party seems to be on a path to replicate the political big brother state we currently see in China.

Judging from crowd at the election rallies, the junta’s PPRP seem to attract very small crowd. Most polls except the pro junta NIda indicate PPRP at 7-9% party preference. If we extrapolate, that will translate to not more than 45 seats; way off the 125 seats needed to be decisive to get Prayut across the line with the 250 senate votes. Maybe that path seem ensure now unless they dig into their dirty bag of tricks and get the major parties dissolve before election. Let’s hope this will not happen and we can see the people”s mandate triumph over military authoritarianism. 

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He was sort of a national "hero" for some back in 2014, but since then has overwhelmingly demonstrated Thai-style broken bullshit promises, driving Thailand pitifully backward not forward ("ban nok" Thainess) combined with increasingly Thaksin-esque delusional ego-driven corrupt scheming with more lies to cling to power indefinitely.

พอแล้ว! ออกไป เลย!!! / PAW LAEW! OHK PAI LOEI! (GTFO!) 

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5 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Judging from crowd at the election rallies, the junta’s PPRP seem to attract very small crowd. Most polls except the pro junta NIda indicate PPRP at 7-9% party preference. If we extrapolate, that will translate to not more than 45 seats; way off the 125 seats needed to be decisive to get Prayut across the line with the 250 senate votes. Maybe that path seem ensure now unless they dig into their dirty bag of tricks and get the major parties dissolve before election. Let’s hope this will not happen and we can see the people”s mandate triumph over military authoritarianism. 

Hope, yes let us hope. I am pretty certain that the bag of surprises is ready on the prime ministerial desk...

 

Party dissolutions, or a national emergency which causes cancellation of the election?

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13 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Prayuth Cha-o-cha led the field polling 26.06%

I'd feel pretty unhappy with that mate - that means near 75% of the population don;t like you or want you. But hey , with backing of tanks and guns the 25% elite can rule I guess

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