When can I come back. How long can I stay. How often can I come back?

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, lamyai3 said:

Late last year, one poster reported being told by the Canadian embassy that they will be stopping the income letters soon.

I have a recollection of someone posting more or less the opposite, ie Canada planned to continue supporting it's Ex-patriots in Thailand and had no plan to stop the letters. 

I am surprised a few more countries haven't joined the group of 4.

[lamyai3]

43 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

I have a recollection of someone posting more or less the opposite, ie Canada planned to continue supporting it's Ex-patriots in Thailand and had no plan to stop the letters. 

I am surprised a few more countries haven't joined the group of 4.

See post #2, from mok199. 

 

[jacko45k]

4 minutes ago, lamyai3 said:

See post #2, from mok199. 

 

Well it is nearly 6 months later and no action. 

 

[lamyai3]

4 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Well it is nearly 6 months later and no action. 

Not sure why you only quoted my first sentence, since I went on to suggest possible reasons why things seem to have stalled:

 

"Late last year, one poster reported being told by the Canadian embassy that they will be stopping the income letters soon. The fact it hasn't happened yet isn't a guarantee that it won't. They might be just riding out the clock, or they might have decided to continue with business as usual until immigration issues some consistent instructions."

[jacko45k]

13 minutes ago, lamyai3 said:

Not sure why you only quoted my first sentence, since I went on to suggest possible reasons why things seem to have stalled:

 

"Late last year, one poster reported being told by the Canadian embassy that they will be stopping the income letters soon. The fact it hasn't happened yet isn't a guarantee that it won't. They might be just riding out the clock, or they might have decided to continue with business as usual until immigration issues some consistent instructions."

I saw only a single sentence in your post..#62 above.

Quote

See post #2, from mok199.

Followed by a link to a very long thread which I certainly wasn't going to read again, I did read the specific post you mentioned. 

I do not have the slightest idea what clock they might be riding out. Also the post you directed to appears to be simply gossip, nearly 6 months is beyond 'soon'  and there has not been a single other nation's Embassy that has followed suit, yet.

Edited March 20, 2019 by jacko45k

[JackThompson]

57 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

.. and there has not been a single other nation's Embassy that has followed suit, yet.

It is possible that when Thai Immigration reversed it position about "verification" and retreated to "certification" that the embassies that had not yet cancelled their letters no longer had a reason to do so.

 

Now, if we could just get the letters restored, given that the impossible "verification" demand is no longer on the table.

[jacko45k]

2 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

Now, if we could just get the letters restored, given that the impossible "verification" demand is no longer on the table.

Don't hold your breath!

[Thailand Outcast]

14 hours ago, balo said:

If it was me, I would live in Vietnam 6 months and Thailand 6 months.  1 year visa in Vietnam is around $300.  Then you need a couple of tourist visas to Thailand per year . That should work. 

 

This is my plan, and from what I read, and from the people I speak with, it is a common plan. 

[MuuKondiao]

17 hours ago, Thailand Outcast said:

This is my plan, and from what I read, and from the people I speak with, it is a common plan. 

That is my tentative plan right now. just got 3-month V.N. visa; in Quy Nhon now. 

Enjoying life here and missing Thailand at the same time.  

[Thailand Outcast]

4 hours ago, MuuKondiao said:

That is my tentative plan right now. just got 3-month V.N. visa; in Quy Nhon now. 

Enjoying life here and missing Thailand at the same time.  

For sure I will miss Thailand, but i will not miss the crazy visa system in Thailand. 

 

What are your first impressions?

[Martyp]

On 2/18/2019 at 8:10 PM, Thailand Outcast said:

I think they will also stop it soon, but I will do it until they change that rule also.  I have the money.  I refuse to pay it on principle.  I decide what I do with my personal finances.  Not Thailand Immigration.  But I don't complain.  You will not see me complain here.  It is my choice not to pay. 

 

In the future I don't think I will be the only one to visa run into Thailand, rather than visa run out of Thailand.   

If you have the money to meet the new rules but decline to follow on some principle then what are you worried about or complaining about? It is a problem of your own making.

[Martyp]

On 3/19/2019 at 7:02 AM, Thailand Outcast said:

I also think the situation will get worse, but not just for the visa laws themselves.

 

External influences like exchange rates will effect many, come retirement visa renewal time, particularly Brit's, with the Brexit.

 

I think it's also possible other Embassies may stop issuing proof of income letters.

 

As time ticks by, those who can no longer qualify for the visa they had been using in the past, will probably move to tourist visas, and I think this is where the system will be strained to a point where we may see a major announcement.  I think this may also be the case with the O-A visa.  

 

For the record, such predictions and opinions are not scare mongering.  They are based on many in the expat population taking the path of least resistance and affordability, which is human nature.

 

We are already seeing many reports of people being refused visas, and people being denied entry.  These people will go away and tray again later, on top of the people coming off retirement visas and moving onto tourist visas.  In my opinion, there will be a snow ball effect.  

 

i expect Thailand's tourism figures to soar this year.  ????

 

The best one in this situation can do is be prepared, which also includes exploring another place to live for a while.   

 

Tourist visas of any length of time are not intended to be used to live here long term. If your travel history looks like you are living here then you risk being challenged by Immigration. If you want to live here long stay then abide by the (new) visa rules. If you don’t like the rules that is “up to you “.

 

 I do feel sorry for those expats that have been put into a financial bind. Most expats will find a way to meet the requirements. Exactly how to transition to those requirements will be determined throughout this year and will be a source of anxiety and uncertainty. That too is unfortunate.

[JackThompson]

4 hours ago, Martyp said:

Tourist visas of any length of time are not intended to be used to live here long term. If your travel history looks like you are living here then you risk being challenged by Immigration.

As there is no legal rationale for denying entry with a Tourist Visa based on previous legal stays, this would only affect those entering at lawless entry points like the Bangkok Airports.  No telling if the clique will gain enough power to put their lawbreakers in charge of all entry points and/or change Tourist-Visa rules - but they seem unable to do so at present.

 

4 hours ago, Martyp said:

If you want to live here long stay then abide by the (new) visa rules. If you don’t like the rules that is “up to you “.

 

 I do feel sorry for those expats that have been put into a financial bind. Most expats will find a way to meet the requirements. Exactly how to transition to those requirements will be determined throughout this year and will be a source of anxiety and uncertainty. That too is unfortunate.

Most who cannot reach the new-goalposts will end up using agents, exactly as immigration planned when the new seasoning-rules were written (seasoning doesn't affect agent applications), and embassies were pushed on their letters.

[Thailand Outcast]

22 hours ago, Martyp said:

If you have the money to meet the new rules but decline to follow on some principle then what are you worried about or complaining about? It is a problem of your own making.

I'm not complaining. 

 

I have the money, but will not be bringing it into Thailand, based on principle, and economic rational. 

 

I was on the income method, and no, I didn't lie about my income. 

 

So, I will be leaving Thailand.

 

I started this thread to gain updated information on the "allowed" frequency and duration of the use of tourist visas, as I wish visit Thailand as often, and for as long as possible, these visas allow me to do so. 

[Thailand Outcast]

On 3/21/2019 at 10:21 PM, Martyp said:

Tourist visas of any length of time are not intended to be used to live here long term. If your travel history looks like you are living here then you risk being challenged by Immigration. If you want to live here long stay then abide by the (new) visa rules. If you don’t like the rules that is “up to you “.

 

 I do feel sorry for those expats that have been put into a financial bind. Most expats will find a way to meet the requirements. Exactly how to transition to those requirements will be determined throughout this year and will be a source of anxiety and uncertainty. That too is unfortunate.

I agree that one is not meant to be living in Thailand on tourist visas, but can you see that Thailand will be effectively pushing me out, so I will become a resident of Vietnam in the future, which means I will therefore be a "tourist" when coming back to Thailand. 

 

I will not be trying to live full time in Thailand on tourist visas, and recent threads show this would now be a lot harder to do.

 

I think a lot of expats will conform to the demand of 800k / 400k, but a lot will not be able to, and some, like myself, will chose not to, and in my opinion, we could be looking in the tens of thousands of expats, if not more.  Then, there is the possibility of more embassies not issuing income letters in the future.

 

It will take several months for the dust to settle from these new visas rules, but we are already seeing they are having a major impact on many here.   

[BritManToo]

On 3/21/2019 at 6:08 PM, Martyp said:

If you have the money to meet the new rules but decline to follow on some principle then what are you worried about or complaining about? It is a problem of your own making.

My principle is, I'm not stupid enough to put 20,000 pounds of my money in a 3rd world country with a currency, banking system and government that could fail next week. I'd rather put the money into Cambodia, at least their bank accounts are in USD.

Edited March 22, 2019 by BritManToo

[marcusarelus]

11 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

My principle is, I'm not stupid enough to put 20,000 pounds of my money in a 3rd world country with a currency, banking system and government that could fail next week. I'd rather put the money into Cambodia, at least their bank accounts are in USD.

By keeping your 20,000 in a UK bank since 2004 instead of a Thai bank you have lost, 800,000 baht.

[Thailand Outcast]

On 3/22/2019 at 11:14 PM, BritManToo said:

My principle is, I'm not stupid enough to put 20,000 pounds of my money in a 3rd world country with a currency, banking system and government that could fail next week. I'd rather put the money into Cambodia, at least their bank accounts are in USD.

It's interesting how a lot of people talk about "rule number 1" or the "golden rule" for Thailand, that being, don't bring any money into Thailand that you are not prepared to lose, yet, many see the 800k as being outside of this rule.

 

I don't differentiate. 

 

The 800k for a retirement visa is part of "rule number 1" for me. 

 

I am not bringing it to Thailand, a 3rd World country, where I can't even use 400k of it for several months, and the other 400k of it forever, and it pays a lousy return.

 

If a financial advisor put this deal on the table you would walk out of his office laughing. 

[JackThompson]

1 hour ago, Thailand Outcast said:

It's interesting how a lot of people talk about "rule number 1" or the "golden rule" for Thailand, that being, don't bring any money into Thailand that you are not prepared to lose, yet, many see the 800k as being outside of this rule.

 

I don't differentiate. 

 

The 800k for a retirement visa is part of "rule number 1" for me. 

 

I am not bringing it to Thailand, a 3rd World country, where I can't even use 400k of it for several months, and the other 400k of it forever, and it pays a lousy return.

 

If a financial advisor put this deal on the table you would walk out of his office laughing. 

For me, the "money in the bank" risk is just that immigration is too unpredictable - not that I think the banks will fail, or that a coup or financial-crisis will result in accounts being frozen and/or a "bail-in" (could happen, but unlikely). 

 

The fact the military can "take over" at a moments notice and keep the infrastructure functioning is actually a stabilizing effect when compared to a partisan battle for power with strikes, roadblocks, endless protests, etc. 

 

OTOH, if immigration decides you don't get in, getting your money could be a challenge.  They follow the laws/rules only when/if they feel like it.  That is the primary source of uncertainty for foreigners in the context of any investments here - not only bank-money, but a business, condo, leased-land, etc.

[Thailand Outcast]

19 hours ago, JackThompson said:

For me, the "money in the bank" risk is just that immigration is too unpredictable - not that I think the banks will fail, or that a coup or financial-crisis will result in accounts being frozen and/or a "bail-in" (could happen, but unlikely). 

 

The fact the military can "take over" at a moments notice and keep the infrastructure functioning is actually a stabilizing effect when compared to a partisan battle for power with strikes, roadblocks, endless protests, etc. 

 

OTOH, if immigration decides you don't get in, getting your money could be a challenge.  They follow the laws/rules only when/if they feel like it.  That is the primary source of uncertainty for foreigners in the context of any investments here - not only bank-money, but a business, condo, leased-land, etc.

I don't actually see Thai banks as a huge risk.  Yes, Thailand is an unstable country, but 800k is not one's life savings. 

 

I just see it a "bad deal" and refuse to be manipulated by the Thai government in this way.

 

Many on a retirement visa would never buy an Elite Card, because they do not see the value in it, yet, 800k for 5 months, untouched, and 400k, never touched, at 1.5% interest, is viewed as "ok" by the same people. 

 

Over 5 years, it's probably the same cost as a Elite Card in lost earnings from the loss of use of your 800k, should it have been put to work in a fund.   ????

[BritManToo]

9 minutes ago, Thailand Outcast said:

but 800k is not one's life savings. 

Not for me, but it is for many in the west, and almost everyone in Asia.

[Thailand Outcast]

31 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Not for me, but it is for many in the west, and almost everyone in Asia.

Well, for whatever reason, as a foreigner, if 800k IS your life savings, then one should look very very seriously at not moving their 800k to Thailand.  

 

In this circumstance, in my opinion, it would represent a huge risk, not to mention the loss of use of your savings.

[JackThompson]

3 hours ago, Thailand Outcast said:

Many on a retirement visa would never buy an Elite Card, because they do not see the value in it, yet, 800k for 5 months, untouched, and 400k, never touched, at 1.5% interest, is viewed as "ok" by the same people. 

 

Over 5 years, it's probably the same cost as a Elite Card in lost earnings from the loss of use of your 800k, should it have been put to work in a fund.   ????

500K earned from 800K in 5 years?  Sounds a tad risky.  
1M earned from 800K in 20 years is much easier to pull off.

 

But even easier to earn ~20K in one year from your 800K, by using agent-service.  A 5 year series of that is only 100K, and "pay as you go."  Even 20 yrs is just 400K in total.   The end-result is the same as the elite - no dealing w/immigration for anything, they handle 90-day reports, etc.

 

2 hours ago, Thailand Outcast said:

Well, for whatever reason, as a foreigner, if 800k IS your life savings, then one should look very very seriously at not moving their 800k to Thailand.  

 

In this circumstance, in my opinion, it would represent a huge risk, not to mention the loss of use of your savings. 

The 800K doesn't have to be all, or even most, of one's life-savings to make it a no-deal situation.  How much of one's life-savings is one willing to risk?  10%?  15%? 
The percentage one would be willing to risk gets smaller and smaller, the more difficult immigration becomes. 

[Thailand Outcast]

22 hours ago, JackThompson said:

500K earned from 800K in 5 years?  Sounds a tad risky.  
1M earned from 800K in 20 years is much easier to pull off.

 

But even easier to earn ~20K in one year from your 800K, by using agent-service.  A 5 year series of that is only 100K, and "pay as you go."  Even 20 yrs is just 400K in total.   The end-result is the same as the elite - no dealing w/immigration for anything, they handle 90-day reports, etc.

 

The 800K doesn't have to be all, or even most, of one's life-savings to make it a no-deal situation.  How much of one's life-savings is one willing to risk?  10%?  15%? 
The percentage one would be willing to risk gets smaller and smaller, the more difficult immigration becomes. 

Yes, it would have to be an aggressive investment, indeed.  I put the example forward more to show the mentality of many expats, rather than a possible financial benefit.  It was more to make a point. 

 

Immigration laws are certainly one aspect of how Thailand has lost its "user friendly" status for expats.  

 

They just keep changing the goal posts and making it harder, and more time consuming and bureaucratic to remain here.  

[Thailand Outcast]

On 3/22/2019 at 11:26 PM, marcusarelus said:

By keeping your 20,000 in a UK bank since 2004 instead of a Thai bank you have lost, 800,000 baht.

How much of those losses are recent, due to Brexit?

[lamyai3]

1 hour ago, Thailand Outcast said:

How much of those losses are recent, due to Brexit?

The major decline in the pound's value in the past 15 years happened after the 2008 financial crisis, where it dropped to low-mid 40's and then slowly climbed back to low 50's before the Brexit vote in June 2016 caused a second crash, it's dropped around 20% since then. 

 

Edited March 31, 2019 by lamyai3

[Thailand Outcast]

21 hours ago, lamyai3 said:

The major decline in the pound's value in the past 15 years happened after the 2008 financial crisis, where it dropped to low-mid 40's and then slowly climbed back to low 50's before the Brexit vote in June 2016 caused a second crash, it's dropped around 20% since then. 

 

The world economy went pear shaped during the GFC.  Many economies have still not recovered. 

 

Brexit has caused a decline on a currency that was trying to rebuild. 

 

I think there is more pain ahead for the GBP. 

 

It may be the case that older retired Brit's have to move countries for quality of lifestyle, rather than the new visa requirements here.  

 

  

[lamyai3]

8 hours ago, Thailand Outcast said:

Brexit has caused a decline on a currency that was trying to rebuild.

Very true, the effect has been disastrous. 

 

8 hours ago, Thailand Outcast said:

It may be the case that older retired Brit's have to move countries for quality of lifestyle, rather than the new visa requirements here.  

One of the grossly unfair aspects of the new rules is that it will force out long settled expats who can nonetheless still very much afford to live here and have been managing just fine on their monthly budget. Even with GBP-THB exchange rates at a 22 year low this year, Thailand has always had the advantage of a wide strata of possible spending levels... even now a monthly income of say 30-40000 baht would provide a better quality of life than would ever be possible back in the west, and in regional countries too if they've already paid for their home here. It's clear from the graph I attached that a current income of 40000 was worth 75000 back in 2004 (even 120,000 back then is on the brink of not being enough now). Obviously anyone here since that time will have ploughed many millions of baht into the local economy, supporting local businesses and possibly a Thai family.

 

Add to this the increasing likelihood that a long term retiree will have gone native and be living in a much cheaper part of the country, and may have sunk money into buying a home, furnishings, car etc, thus eliminating rental and most transport costs. With these overheads already paid for, Thailand would be as cheap a place for them to live as anywhere they could find in the world.

 

Immigration's hasty and ill-thought through reforms will hit this type of expat hard in the coming year - many of those that affected are likely not yet aware of the changes, and will be in for a short sharp shock as they come to renew their extensions. 

[onera1961]

On 3/29/2019 at 3:54 AM, BritManToo said:

Not for me, but it is for many in the west, and almost everyone in Asia.

Asia is big. You're forgetting the rich countries in Asia like Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Macau, Brunei, most of the middle East like UAE, Dubai, Kuwait, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, etc. 

[steven100]

4 hours ago, lamyai3 said:

Obviously anyone here since that time will have ploughed many millions of baht into the local economy, supporting local businesses and possibly a Thai family.

 

Add to this the increasing likelihood that a long term retiree will have gone native and be living in a much cheaper part of the country, and may have sunk money into buying a home, furnishings, car etc, thus eliminating rental and most transport costs. With these overheads already paid for, Thailand would be as cheap a place for them to live as anywhere they could find in the world.

Absolutely correct.