Jump to content

Thai Jan exports fall 5.7 percent year-on-year, a bigger drop than forecast


webfact

Recommended Posts

Thai Jan exports fall 5.7 percent year-on-year, a bigger drop than forecast

 

2019-02-22T041630Z_1_LYNXNPEF1L06Q_RTROPTP_4_THAILAND-ECONOMY-TRADE.JPG

FILE PHOTO - A shipping container is lifted from a truck to load onto a ship at a port in Bangkok, Thailand, March 25, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's customs-cleared exports dropped for a third straight month in January, falling a more-than expected 5.65 percent from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said on Friday.

 

Analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted a 1 percent slip in exports, a key driver of Thai growth.

 

In December, shipments contracted 1.72 percent from a year earlier.

 

The export decline in January was due to falling shipments of rice, electronics, gold and cars, the ministry said.

 

Exports to the United States rose 8.3 percent in January from a year earlier but ones to China slumped 16.7 percent.

 

The strong baht, Asia's best performing currency this year, has increasingly hurt exports, particularly rice orders, a ministry official said.

 

In January, imports surprisingly jumped 13.99 percent from a year earlier, after sliding 8.15 percent in December. The poll forecast was for a 1.0 percent decline in January. Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

 

For January, there was a trade deficit of $4.03 billion, compared with a forecast of a $320 million surplus, and December's $1.06 billion surplus.

 

The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year after a 6.7 percent increase in 2018.

 

(Reporting by Kitiphong Thaichareon; Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by)

 

 

reuters_logo.jpg

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-02-22
Link to comment
Share on other sites

"The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year after a 6.7 percent increase in 2018."

"...falling a more-than expected 5.65 percent from a year earlier..."

So who should we believe? The commerce ministry or the commerce ministry?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exports in 2018 grew by 7.7%. This year that growth is expected to drop to 4.7% but that prediction was made before the sudden jump in the value of the baht. A more realistic growth figure for this year might now be about 3%.

But what of the future? Rice exports are in decline and predictably the new rice laws the junta is rushing through parliament will probably make it worse. Thailand is heavily dependent on exports but there is nothing in the crystal ball that brings hope; only a continuance of decline. 

If the junta remains in charge Thailand will eventually become the poor cousin of S.E Asia with only Chinese tourists and Chinese investment holding it's economy together.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

If by that they mean the kit to be used for "Cobra Gold", then presumably the troops who brought it into the country will take it with them when they leave!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Emdog said:

"The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year after a 6.7 percent increase in 2018."

"...falling a more-than expected 5.65 percent from a year earlier..."

So who should we believe? The commerce ministry or the commerce ministry?

Believe the FT which is reporting that the Thai trade deficit is the biggest in six years as exports slide and worsening economic picture ahead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

A bad trade off - import of military arms and weapons makes no contribution to economic growth. And if they're used as more of a domestic peace time deterrent, their value becomes a sunk and depreciating cost to the government. The result is that they eventually cost much more than their worth. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/22/2019 at 1:14 PM, happy chappie said:

They can expect exports to drop even more with the rise of the bahtcoin.if it carries on like this I'll be able to sell my property half price and go back to the uk evens.

 

You'd hope someone somewhere might twig the idea that the very strong baht might impact on exports and competitiveness. 

 

In their usual style, they'll probably increase prices to compensate - 555!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/22/2019 at 1:35 PM, Cadbury said:

Exports in 2018 grew by 7.7%. This year that growth is expected to drop to 4.7% but that prediction was made before the sudden jump in the value of the baht. A more realistic growth figure for this year might now be about 3%.

But what of the future? Rice exports are in decline and predictably the new rice laws the junta is rushing through parliament will probably make it worse. Thailand is heavily dependent on exports but there is nothing in the crystal ball that brings hope; only a continuance of decline. 

If the junta remains in charge Thailand will eventually become the poor cousin of S.E Asia with only Chinese tourists and Chinese investment holding it's economy together.

 

How do you think the new proposed rice laws will negatively impact on export sales?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed, from the article that was removed:

 

Quote

The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different
jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform
themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be
reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior
express consent of ING.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exports actual: 5.65% decline. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline

Imports actual: 13.99% increase. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline

Trade balance actual: $4.03 billion deficit. Analysts estimate: $320 million surplus

 

How's that for staggeringly bad analysts' estimates? Must be MBA grads. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Kaoboi Bebobp said:

Exports actual: 5.65% decline. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline

Imports actual: 13.99% increase. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline

Trade balance actual: $4.03 billion deficit. Analysts estimate: $320 million surplus

 

How's that for staggeringly bad analyses? Must be MBA grads. 

 

13.99% increase in imports, but notably which sector the imports increased x) O'well, I just go with the flow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, sfokevin said:

Is it a coincidence that the baht has soared in the last couple months just when the military junta must pay for a huge order of equipment prior to turning the government back over to civilian control after elections?... :coffee1:

You believe the military junta is going to turn the government back over to civilian control? Yeah right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, akampa said:

True, but it rarely trickles down to the consumer. 

It'll never trickle down to the customer with unscrupulous importers raking in the benefits of the bahts strength.what goes up in Thailand stays up and will only go even higher.never ever have I seen anything drop in price here.thai logic is if they've paid for it once at that ridiculous price they will pay that or more forever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

How do you think the new proposed rice laws will negatively impact on export sales?

 

 

If you can't work it out I feel sad for you. He are a few clues to help.

1. the laws have been created by blockhead military generals who wouldn't know the first thing about rice or growing it but know plenty about corruption and lining their own pockets.

2. Rice farmers are not happy about the new laws and are protesting.

3. Conglomerates look set benefit while rice farmers look set to lose or be driven out of the industry.

4 Any law the military junta promulgates usually ends up being a complete stuff up because of their inability to rationalise and realise the consequences of their actions. 

 

Try keeping up with the news instead of sitting back and sniping away at others while not offering any comment yourself. Your form has a familiar pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...