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BANGKOK 22 March 2019 23:59
webfact

Thai Jan exports fall 5.7 percent year-on-year, a bigger drop than forecast

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Thai Jan exports fall 5.7 percent year-on-year, a bigger drop than forecast

 

2019-02-22T041630Z_1_LYNXNPEF1L06Q_RTROPTP_4_THAILAND-ECONOMY-TRADE.JPG

FILE PHOTO - A shipping container is lifted from a truck to load onto a ship at a port in Bangkok, Thailand, March 25, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's customs-cleared exports dropped for a third straight month in January, falling a more-than expected 5.65 percent from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said on Friday.

 

Analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted a 1 percent slip in exports, a key driver of Thai growth.

 

In December, shipments contracted 1.72 percent from a year earlier.

 

The export decline in January was due to falling shipments of rice, electronics, gold and cars, the ministry said.

 

Exports to the United States rose 8.3 percent in January from a year earlier but ones to China slumped 16.7 percent.

 

The strong baht, Asia's best performing currency this year, has increasingly hurt exports, particularly rice orders, a ministry official said.

 

In January, imports surprisingly jumped 13.99 percent from a year earlier, after sliding 8.15 percent in December. The poll forecast was for a 1.0 percent decline in January. Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

 

For January, there was a trade deficit of $4.03 billion, compared with a forecast of a $320 million surplus, and December's $1.06 billion surplus.

 

The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year after a 6.7 percent increase in 2018.

 

(Reporting by Kitiphong Thaichareon; Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by)

 

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-02-22
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The strong Thai Baht will make exports a real scarcity.  I guess as long as the Chinese come here and exchange their money for Baht Thailand will be happy.

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3 hours ago, webfact said:

Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

Cobra Gold ??????

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5 hours ago, webfact said:

Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

If by that they mean the kit to be used for "Cobra Gold", then presumably the troops who brought it into the country will take it with them when they leave!

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9 hours ago, webfact said:

Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

A bad trade off - import of military arms and weapons makes no contribution to economic growth. And if they're used as more of a domestic peace time deterrent, their value becomes a sunk and depreciating cost to the government. The result is that they eventually cost much more than their worth. 

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On 2/22/2019 at 1:14 PM, happy chappie said:

They can expect exports to drop even more with the rise of the bahtcoin.if it carries on like this I'll be able to sell my property half price and go back to the uk evens.

 

You'd hope someone somewhere might twig the idea that the very strong baht might impact on exports and competitiveness. 

 

In their usual style, they'll probably increase prices to compensate - 555!

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On 2/22/2019 at 1:35 PM, Cadbury said:

Exports in 2018 grew by 7.7%. This year that growth is expected to drop to 4.7% but that prediction was made before the sudden jump in the value of the baht. A more realistic growth figure for this year might now be about 3%.

But what of the future? Rice exports are in decline and predictably the new rice laws the junta is rushing through parliament will probably make it worse. Thailand is heavily dependent on exports but there is nothing in the crystal ball that brings hope; only a continuance of decline. 

If the junta remains in charge Thailand will eventually become the poor cousin of S.E Asia with only Chinese tourists and Chinese investment holding it's economy together.

 

How do you think the new proposed rice laws will negatively impact on export sales?

 

 

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Is it a coincidence that the baht has soared in the last couple months just when the military junta must pay for a huge order of equipment prior to turning the government back over to civilian control after elections?... :coffee1:

Edited by sfokevin
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A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed, from the article that was removed:

 

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themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be
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