“Unpredictable, messy” is how the March-24 election is seen by academics

[rooster59]

“Unpredictable, messy” is how the March-24 election is seen by academics

 

Thailand’s leading academics taking part in the election forum organized by Thai PBS last week

 

The March-24 is anything but predictable. That’s the general consensus among some of Thailand’s leading academics and political experts just less than a week away from the first general election for the country in almost eight years.

 

They agree that the electoral system – in which a vote cast will be used to determine both winners in the constituency election and those in the party list candidates as well as who the next prime minister will be – is one key factor that defies analyses of the poll results.

 

The entry of some new political parties, notably the Future Forward which is attracting large following among first-time voters, has also added an element of unpredictability

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/unpredictable-messy-is-how-the-march-24-election-is-seen-by-academics/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2019-03-17

[KiChakayan]

Unpredictable..????????????... Some buffoons, in fancy dress, have worked out the outcome, months ago.

[Samui Bodoh]

"...Although the political environment is unpredictable, the positive side is that people are interested in political campaigns and debates, particularly on parties’ policies,” said, noting that whether or not the election will be free and fair is one major concern..."

 

"Whether or not the election will be free and fair is one major concern..."

 

What the hell??? ONE major concern??? ONE???

 

Whether or not the election is free and fair is the single greatest concern; if it is not free and fair (and most do not believe it is), then every other issue is meaningless.

 

Academics are the most idiotic people sometimes...

 

 

[sammieuk1]

I would if I could vote future forward, but alas the result in all probability is already in and will be future in the few back pockets again????

[Eric Loh]

The unpredictability heightened with polls showing a unprecedented turnout. Couple with the 23 young voters and 7 million or there about new voters, I dare say that the tide is turning against the junta parties. All is left to see is whether Ahbisit and Anutin will renege on their stance against the junta. 

[nickstav]

"If your vote really mattered, they wouldn't let you do it".....Mark Twain.

[bannork]

28 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

The unpredictability heightened with polls showing a unprecedented turnout. Couple with the 23 young voters and 7 million or there about new voters, I dare say that the tide is turning against the junta parties. All is left to see is whether Ahbisit and Anutin will renege on their stance against the junta. 

They both have already.

[Sticky Wicket]

40 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

The unpredictability heightened with polls showing a unprecedented turnout. Couple with the 23 young voters and 7 million or there about new voters, I dare say that the tide is turning against the junta parties. All is left to see is whether Ahbisit and Anutin will renege on their stance against the junta. 

He already has! Willing to work with them!

[MaxLee]

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

“Unpredictable, messy” is how the March-24 election is seen by academics

You mean, Ultra corrupt with a lot of hidden agendas, cheating, corruption, vote buying, stalking and brown envelopes behind the scenes.

[ThaiBunny]

8 minutes ago, MaxLee said:

You mean, Ultra corrupt with a lot of hidden agendas, cheating, corruption, vote buying, stalking and brown envelopes behind the scenes.

Definitely business as usual, but you've forgotten the "disqualify as many opposition parties as possible" activity

[Orton Rd]

1 hour ago, nickstav said:

"If your vote really mattered, they wouldn't let you do it".....Mark Twain.

He never said that, but people keep claiming he did

[Cadbury]

1 hour ago, KiChakayan said:

Unpredictable..????????????... Some buffoons, in fancy dress, have worked out the outcome, months ago.

And if that doesn't work as planned there is always the fall-back position of another coup led by the new military commander General Apirat Kongsompong who will likely make PM Prayut look like Mother Teresa.

[fred110]

It was nice and quiet last night with bars closed.

[dcnx]

The only thing that is unpredictable about this election is what outfit Prayut is going to wear to announce his landslide victory.

[Lupatria]

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

election forum organized by Thai PBS last week

...and there goes another media down the drain after the "election"

[Just1Voice]

1. There will be an election.

2. A certain pricktator won't like the results.

3. He will use Article 44 to nullify the election claiming "collusion & corruption", but offering no proof.

4. He will declare a new election - "Someday".

 

[otherstuff1957]

Very few Thai people seem to know that the Senate will have 1/3 of the voting power when it is time to choose the next Prime Minister.  I wonder how people will react when the Junta-appointed Senate ignore the popular vote and select Prayut as the next PM. 

[johnmcc6]

40 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

He never said that, but people keep claiming he did

O k I'll claim the saying then!. In this election it is true. They have had 0ver 4 years to stich this election together.

[ThaiBunny]

Just now, johnmcc6 said:

O k I'll claim the saying then!. In this election it is true. They have had 0ver 4 years to stich this election together.

Stitch it up surely?

[248900_1469958220]

19 minutes ago, otherstuff1957 said:

Very few Thai people seem to know that the Senate will have 1/3 of the voting power when it is time to choose the next Prime Minister.  I wonder how people will react when the Junta-appointed Senate ignore the popular vote and select Prayut as the next PM. 

I wouldnt put that past them....but surely it would FINALLY wake the giant up from its slumber?...or are people just too apathetic by now? I really, really hope not.

[AGareth2]

do you think the early vote will be counted?

if yes will there be a reaction?

[johnmcc6]

52 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Stitch it up surely?

Unless one is a major in English what's the difference?

[blazes]

I wonder if Thailand could learn anything about political action from the "gilets jaunes" of France.

Judging by the passivity of the British (over the snatching of Brexit from the 52percenters by the Remainers among the MPs and peers), it would be unreasonable to expect anything unusual to happen here.  Britain sends the ruling class here a clear message about how it is done.....let people talk, as long as the talk (and vote) is meaningless.

 

The more things change, the more they remain the same.

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, otherstuff1957 said:

Very few Thai people seem to know that the Senate will have 1/3 of the voting power when it is time to choose the next Prime Minister.  I wonder how people will react when the Junta-appointed Senate ignore the popular vote and select Prayut as the next PM. 

yellow VS red again and chaos on the streets

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, otherstuff1957 said:

I wonder how people will react when the Junta-appointed Senate ignore the popular vote and select Prayut as the next PM. 

Probably no one because the PM isn't elected by "popular" vote in a parliamentary system.

But you're correct as to whether people understand how the junta-appointed Senate (that will include members of the NCPO!) can cause an unelected candidate such as Prayut to be selected as the next PM.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30355996

The candidate pool is stacked with army men close to Gen. Prayut.

http://www.khaosodenglish.com/politics/2019/03/09/400-senator-candidates-shortlisted-for-prayuth/

[billd766]

33 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

yellow VS red again and chaos on the streets

More likely to be green or camouflage against the rest including the newly aged students. 

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, dcnx said:

The only thing that is unpredictable about this election is what outfit Prayut is going to wear to announce his landslide victory.

Yellow... as he has no backbone !

[SABloke]

Speaking of messy: I just drove up Ladplakao Road and turned left on Ramintra. All the faces of the Seri Ruam Thai party leader (the guy who mocked the head of the army) were slashed - about 18 posters in total. Ladplakao is flanked by infantry barracks, and the stretch of Ramintra I was on runs past the Royal Army Sports club (which is where I noticed the vandalism first). Coincindence? I think not.

[Sir Dude]

Very high voter turnout (or the intention to vote prior to an election) usually indicates public dissatisfaction at the status quo. Only real hope for Thailand is a massive vote for FFP in an attempt to break with the nonsense of the past and give something new a go. Might be wishful thinking this time round but sooner or later the youth will forsake the failed politics and figures that represent the past. Like it or not Thailand but the rubbish that the crusty dinosaurs in power represent and try to perpetuate now will not be around much longer and the youth, who are vastly different, don't want to live in the 1920s.

 

What I'd like to see is FFP take like a healthy 20% or something of the vote this time and they would have to be taken seriously in any coalition and that would get the ball rolling on new stuff for the country. If the Dems and PT can't stomach each other no matter what, then if FFP do well, then they could end up as king-makers...which would be great.

[Eligius]

These 'academics' are total buffoons.

Anyone with more than two brain cells to rub  together knows that the whole 'election' process, from A to Z, has been a tragi-comical farce and insult to every thinking person in Thailand.

 

And the result is 'unpredictable'? You wait. The great Prayut will magically be engineered back into the PM seat of governance.

 

We ALL know it (except for these brainless, timorous, frightened little 'academics').