May gets two-week Brexit reprieve from impatient EU

[SheungWan]

6 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

last night EU 28 agreed 2 A50 extension variants, both based on deal being voted on next week

today I read on BBC News that voting may not find place next week

didn't take May long to deviate from what was agreed

Not really. The second delay takes account of either the TM vote going down or not put. If now the May 22 extension is pushed aside then we still have the April 12 extension. It makes more sense for Theresa May to put her motion forwards around April 11. The options on the table then would be the TM motion Vs no-deal Brexit. That should concentrate minds a little. One other additional pathway would be to request a longer extension (eg 1/2 years) but that would be refused by the EU unless the UK was prepared to run the EU elections. So there it is chaps. 

[Rimmer]

A post has been removed:

 

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[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, Loiner said:

Can May go back to the EU empty handed again? It looks like she will have no agreement to her surrender treaty. What’s their next plan going to be?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47675261
Brexit: Vote on Theresa May's deal may not happen next week

Please keep up. There are 2 extension dates in place and accommodate whatever happens or doesn't happen next week.

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, vogie said:

The EU is more worried about it's own skin than to worry about the UK.

The UK relative losing their marbles. 

[Monomial]

17 hours ago, AlexRich said:

 

This is an interesting question for me too. I don't believe that I'll be better off economically with Brexit, so I see no sense in it from that viewpoint. But if I believed that I would be better off or it would have no impact I would still not want it. I like having a European passport and having the freedom to live, travel and work in Europe without any issues should I choose to. That will not be as easy after the exit.

 

For dedicated leavers there is no economic benefit, unless you are a hedge fund like Odey, Rees Mogg, and you'll position yourself to profit from it initially ... or be able to avoid tax legislation on offshore funds coming down the pipe later. But for a typical voter I can't see any real benefit, indeed, I think many of them are going to suffer the consequences more than the average remainer. The benefit seems to be psychological, like your team winning the cup. The problem is that wears out quickly, and they'll find they are facing the same problems (or more) as before, but don't have an EU to blame it on.  

 

 

The problem is that people are not seeing the Brexit vote in context. Brexit was never about the EU. It was about the fact that 50% of the country is angry. They are not benefitting from all of these "advantages" that those who are happy are currently receiving. If you study any civilization in decline, this is exactly the pattern you see. The French went so far as to chop off the heads of their monarchs, and what they got in the bargain was Napoleon. If the internet had been around back then, you can bet all the keyboard warriors would have been sitting debating these same issues and coming up with the same tired arguments.

 

The issue is both simple and complex. It is simple because people know what they don't want. It is complex because they have no idea of the root cause or how to correct it. So they are going to try Brexit. Will it harm them? History says probably. But it will also strip away layers of complexity which may leave the real issues more exposed. Eventually, after enough anger has been vented and enough of the status quo has been discarded, the whole country may finally be united on a way forward that will benefit everyone. Or the country could split into different states when common ground is possible. That is equally likely during collapse. 

 

But what does not help is snarling, name calling, and referring to the opposing side as stupid. This is an unavoidable historical path which every country in the world is going to be embarking on. I congratulate the UK for choosing to collapse early and avoid the rush. They might ultimately be better for it.

 

 

[SheungWan]

17 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Not really. The second delay takes account of either the TM vote going down or not put. If now the May 22 extension is pushed aside then we still have the April 12 extension. It makes more sense for Theresa May to put her motion forwards around April 11. The options on the table then would be the TM motion Vs no-deal Brexit. That should concentrate minds a little. One other additional pathway would be to request a longer extension (eg 1/2 years) but that would be refused by the EU unless the UK was prepared to run the EU elections. So there it is chaps. 

Well not quite....If Theresa May's motion (assuming it is allowed) goes down a third time, then its not just no-deal Brexit, pulling A50 sits there also. So its all still game on.

[doctormann]

2 hours ago, Monomial said:

The problem is that people are not seeing the Brexit vote in context. Brexit was never about the EU. It was about the fact that 50% of the country is angry. They are not benefitting from all of these "advantages" that those who are happy are currently receiving. If you study any civilization in decline, this is exactly the pattern you see. The French went so far as to chop off the heads of their monarchs, and what they got in the bargain was Napoleon. If the internet had been around back then, you can bet all the keyboard warriors would have been sitting debating these same issues and coming up with the same tired arguments.

 

The issue is both simple and complex. It is simple because people know what they don't want. It is complex because they have no idea of the root cause or how to correct it. So they are going to try Brexit. Will it harm them? History says probably. But it will also strip away layers of complexity which may leave the real issues more exposed. Eventually, after enough anger has been vented and enough of the status quo has been discarded, the whole country may finally be united on a way forward that will benefit everyone. Or the country could split into different states when common ground is possible. That is equally likely during collapse. 

 

But what does not help is snarling, name calling, and referring to the opposing side as stupid. This is an unavoidable historical path which every country in the world is going to be embarking on. I congratulate the UK for choosing to collapse early and avoid the rush. They might ultimately be better for it.

 

 

I agree with you.  I have thought for a long time that the referendum result was more of an anti-establishment vote than it was an anti-EU or anti-immigration vote.  If you look at how people voted, in England anyway, I think that this view is confirmed.  Virtually all 'deprived' areas voted 'leave' while all the fat cats in SE England voted 'remain'.  No real surprise there.

 

I'm also of the view that if there were to be a second referendum the 'remainers' might just get an awful shock because the populace is now even more angry than before - and who are they angry with? - that's right, the UK establishment - and a little bit with the EU on the side!

[Jip99]

1 minute ago, doctormann said:

I agree with you.  I have thought for a long time that the referendum result was more of an anti-establishment vote than it was an anti-EU or anti-immigration vote.  If you look at how people voted, in England anyway, I think that this view is confirmed.  Virtually all 'deprived' areas voted 'leave' while all the fat cats in SE England voted 'remain'.  No real surprise there.

 

I'm also of the view that if there were to be a second referendum the 'remainers' might just get an awful shock because the populace is now even more angry than before - and who are they angry with? - that's right, the UK establishment - and a little bit with the EU on the side!

 

 

I can certainly accept that for Scotland...... a vote against the Sassinak government... I can also see the logic of your reasoning for deprived areas. I can only speak for myself - and, for me, Cameron was quite clear in what Leave meant - I voted to no longer be part of the EU.

[Loiner]

16 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Please keep up. There are 2 extension dates in place and accommodate whatever happens or doesn't happen next week.

Ahead of you, cos you are on the wrong track. There are two stages, the second of which is conditional on the first.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/03/22/brexit-european-council-adopts-decision-extending-the-period-under-article-50/ 

In the event that the withdrawal agreement is not approved by the House of Commons by 29 March 2019, the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council.

She will not get her surrender treaty past parliament next week, so will have nothing to indicate a way forward before 12th April. According to the EU Council, that's it then.

They won't revoke Article 50, so are left with No Deal. Unless somebody changes the current date in our Withdrawal Act, we will still be out next Friday anyway. 

 

[Spidey]

1 minute ago, Loiner said:

Ahead of you, cos you are on the wrong track. There are two stages, the second of which is conditional on the first.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/03/22/brexit-european-council-adopts-decision-extending-the-period-under-article-50/ 

In the event that the withdrawal agreement is not approved by the House of Commons by 29 March 2019, the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council.

She will not get her surrender treaty past parliament next week, so will have nothing to indicate a way forward before 12th April. According to the EU Council, that's it then.

They won't revoke Article 50, so are left with No Deal. Unless somebody changes the current date in our Withdrawal Act, we will still be out next Friday anyway. 

 

Who won't revoke Article 50? It's not up to the European Council. They have also said that they would be amenable to a long term delay if the UK gave them justification.

[Loiner]

18 minutes ago, Spidey said:

Who won't revoke Article 50? It's not up to the European Council. They have also said that they would be amenable to a long term delay if the UK gave them justification.

'They' are May and her Remainers. They are stuck with our Withdrawal Act law, which still says we Leave on Friday, no deal necessary.

Of course the EU would give a long term delay, but there is no UK justification for either a long or short delay.

[Spidey]

3 minutes ago, Loiner said:

'They' are May and her Remainers. They are stuck with our Withdrawal Act law, which still says we Leave on Friday, no deal necessary.

Of course the EU would give a long term delay, but there is no UK justification for either a long or short delay.

Justification would be:

 

Calling a General Election.

 

Revoking Article 50.

 

Referendum which guaranteed a solution.

 

Re negotiating the deal if it led to a much softer Brexit. Similar to Labour's proposal.

 

Lot's of options but Moggy's ERG stand to make a fortune from a hard Brexit and are the real power behind the throne. So, no deal Brexit it is. Our children can look forward to many years of austerity whilst Moggy looks on from his Caribbean tax haven, having a good old laugh at the proles.

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

Well not quite....If Theresa May's motion (assuming it is allowed) goes down a third time, then its not just no-deal Brexit, pulling A50 sits there also. So its all still game on.

and also the possibility of a long extension, 2-3 years.

 

[Loiner]

11 minutes ago, Spidey said:

Justification would be:

 

Calling a General Election.

 

Revoking Article 50.

 

Referendum which guaranteed a solution.

 

Re negotiating the deal if it led to a much softer Brexit. Similar to Labour's proposal.

 

Lot's of options but Moggy's ERG stand to make a fortune from a hard Brexit and are the real power behind the throne. So, no deal Brexit it is. Our children can look forward to many years of austerity whilst Moggy looks on from his Caribbean tax haven, having a good old laugh at the proles.

Yeah, none of those are going to happen. 
Our children and our children's children can look forward to a life of free world trade, prosperity and freedom from a foreign empire rule. As we do with our grandparents, who saved us from a European tyranny, they will look back and say "Thanks Grandad, for saving us from that EU catastrophe that the Remainwashed wanted to tie us to."

[Spidey]

11 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Yeah, none of those are going to happen. 
Our children and our children's children can look forward to a life of free world trade, prosperity and freedom from a foreign empire rule. As we do with our grandparents, who saved us from a European tyranny, they will look back and say "Thanks Grandad, for saving us from that EU catastrophe that the Remainwashed wanted to tie us to."

Nice dream. Unfortunately the truth is a nightmare.

[malagateddy]

Yip..the truth being the fact that brussels continues using the ratchet method as it slowly moves on to it's goal.
A united states of europe ran by unelected beaurocrats..who could not give a toss for the man/woman on the street.

Nice dream. Unfortunately the truth is a nightmare.

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Nigel Garvie]

30 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Yeah, none of those are going to happen. 
Our children and our children's children can look forward to a life of free world trade, prosperity and freedom from a foreign empire rule. As we do with our grandparents, who saved us from a European tyranny, they will look back and say "Thanks Grandad, for saving us from that EU catastrophe that the Remainwashed wanted to tie us to."

Yeah, freedom from foreign empire rule, I couldn't agree more. I presume you are talking about Scotland wanting to stop being one of the little Englanders last colonies. We certainly would be more prosperous if all our oil money wasn't being spent giving tax cuts to the (Mainly) English rich. It beats me how (Apparently) over 50% of the English working class support the Tories - turkeys and christmas. UKIP is there for the working class racists, they must be sick in the extreme if even Nigel Farage has dumped them, it is the first evidence that Farage may actually have a human side to him. And no, you can't describe Europe as being a foreign empire, that's nuts, they are a collection of Nation states working together of their own free will. 

[sanemax]

Just now, Nigel Garvie said:

Yeah, freedom from foreign empire rule, I couldn't agree more. I presume you are talking about Scotland wanting to stop being one of the little Englanders last colonies. We certainly would be more prosperous if all our oil money wasn't being spent giving tax cuts to the (Mainly) English rich. It beats me how (Apparently) over 50% of the English working class support the Tories - turkeys and christmas. UKIP is there for the working class racists, they must be sick in the extreme if even Nigel Farage has dumped them, it is the first evidence that Farage may actually have a human side to him. And no, you can't describe Europe as being a foreign empire, that's nuts, they are a collection of Nation states working together of their own free will. 

Scotland is an equal partnership within the U.K. , they just have an inferiority complex because England is bigger then Scotland and BTW , the price of oil has plummeted recently 

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, Loiner said:

Yeah, none of those are going to happen. 
Our children and our children's children can look forward to a life of free world trade, prosperity and freedom from a foreign empire rule. As we do with our grandparents, who saved us from a European tyranny, they will look back and say "Thanks Grandad, for saving us from that EU catastrophe that the Remainwashed wanted to tie us to."

Grandad here can't even work out the options on the table.

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, melvinmelvin said:

and also the possibility of a long extension, 2-3 years.

Yes, you are right to point out that option as one still sitting there, but I am making an assumption that like all the other Brexit options, that one would be voted down. To summarise where we are; which is that the UK doesn't want any of the pathways for leaving the EU other than the one of leaving in principle. That should leave no-deal as the crash option Vs pull A50 accompanied by GE, whatever.

[Spidey]

1 minute ago, SheungWan said:

Yes, you are right to point out that option as one still sitting there, but I am making an assumption that like all the other Brexit options, that one would be voted down. To summarise where we are; which is that the UK doesn't want any of the pathways for leaving the EU other than the one of leaving in principle. That should leave no-deal as the crash option Vs pull A50 accompanied by GE, whatever.

Don't forget the second referendum. It's what we all want.

[SheungWan]

54 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Scotland is an equal partnership within the U.K. , they just have an inferiority complex because England is bigger then Scotland and BTW , the price of oil has plummeted recently 

Where do you get this stuff from?

 

 

 

[evadgib]

I can see Parliament either being forced to leave on time next week or being blockaided until 12th Apr in order to achieve same. Either way i hope it's peaceful and that they've taken suitable precautions to preserve the Art/archives/statues on the Parliamentary estate beforehand.

[sanemax]

Just now, SheungWan said:

Where do you get this stuff from?

 

 

 

Its located all over the place , often under the sea , quite alot in Saudia Arabia

[SheungWan]

3 minutes ago, Spidey said:

Don't forget the second referendum. It's what we all want.

I do not see a second referendum option passing in Parliament this side of the Withdrawal Agreement extension.

[SheungWan]

2 minutes ago, evadgib said:

I can see Parliament either being forced to leave on time next week or being blockaided until 12th Apr in order to achieve same. Either way i hope it's peaceful and that they've taken suitable precautions to preserve the Art/archives/statues on the Parliamentary estate beforehand.

Possible but unlikely.

[Spidey]

1 hour ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Yeah, freedom from foreign empire rule, I couldn't agree more. I presume you are talking about Scotland wanting to stop being one of the little Englanders last colonies. We certainly would be more prosperous if all our oil money wasn't being spent giving tax cuts to the (Mainly) English rich. It beats me how (Apparently) over 50% of the English working class support the Tories - turkeys and christmas. UKIP is there for the working class racists, they must be sick in the extreme if even Nigel Farage has dumped them, it is the first evidence that Farage may actually have a human side to him. And no, you can't describe Europe as being a foreign empire, that's nuts, they are a collection of Nation states working together of their own free will. 

Err... excuse me, England became a colony of Scotland when James V1 acceded to the English throne and became James 1 of England and Scotland. Don't give those Sassenachs any credit for the Union.

[Spidey]

9 minutes ago, evadgib said:

I can see Parliament either being forced to leave on time next week or being blockaided until 12th Apr in order to achieve same. Either way i hope it's peaceful and that they've taken suitable precautions to preserve the Art/archives/statues on the Parliamentary estate beforehand.

And don't let Hezza near the mace.

[evadgib]

9 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Possible but unlikely.

Thanks. The fact that you didn't simply piss on the post is quite telling.

[Spidey]

3 minutes ago, evadgib said:

The fact that you didn't simply piss on the post is quite telling.

Sir! Sir! I pissed on your post. Sorry it was only a dribble, it's all I'm capable of these days.