Thai elections: Odds against Pheu Thai

[webfact]

Odds against Pheu Thai

By THE NATION

 

 

FRACTURED MANDATE WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR RIVAL COALITIONS TO FORM GOVERNMENT 

PHALANG PRACHARAT FINISHES SECOND, MAKING PRAYUT STRONG CONTENDER FOR PM

DEMOCRATS SUFFER HUGE SETBACK WHILE FUTURE FORWARD MAKES STRONG DEBUT

 

THOUGH THE Pheu Thai Party won the highest number of seats in yesterday’s general election, its chances of forming a government are far from certain, political analysts say.

 

 

That verdict came after observers said that any coalition able to gather majority support in the House of Representatives had the right to form the next government.

 

With 83 per cent of votes counted, Pheu Thai had won 142 out of 500 House seats while the pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party trailed close behind with 135 seats.

 

Future Forward were in third place with 71 seats, followed by Bhumjaithai (62) and the Democrat Party (33).

 

Supporters of the Pheu Thai party react at the party's headquarters in Bangkok on March 24, 2019 after polls closed in Thailand's general election.  // AFP PHOTO

 

Yet many observers said Phalang Pracharat candidate General Prayut Chan-o-cha, thanks to the 250 senators to be appointed by the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), was still favourite to retain his post when the two Houses vote to select the next prime minister. 

 

The next Senate will, for the first time in Thai history, join in selecting the head of government for the first five years after the first Parliament under this Constitution is installed.

 

Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of the Political Science Faculty at Ubon Ratchathani University, said yesterday that the 250 junta-appointed senators would favour Phalang Pracharat’s PM candidate over Pheu Thai’s.

 

He said it was unlikely Pheu Thai could gather a majority of support in Parliament needed for its candidate to become prime minister.

 

“However, it’ll be difficult for Prayut to govern because Pheu Thai will be a big opposition party and will prevent Prayut from gaining an absolute majority,” Titipol said.

 

The academic did not foresee any chaos if Pheu Thai fails to form a government despite winning the most seats.

 

Political observer Ekachai Chainuvati said yesterday that though the law does not stipulate the coalition leader must be the election winner, tradition dictates that the winner gets to lead the government. 

 

This would suggest that Pheu Thai reserves the right to form the new government. But Ekachai admitted this did not mean the prime minister would be from Pheu Thai, since the junta-appointed Senate would also have a say in the selection.

 

“So we’ll have to say after the Parliament is opened, if there are ‘snakes’, then maybe the election winner doesn’t get their PM elected,” he said.

 

Ekachai added that elected MPs must figure out who the public wanted as PM before making their decision to vote. 

 

 

“We have to acknowledge that some voters also support Phalang Pracharat,” he said, implying that General Prayut has popular support. “So the MPs must try to work out what the people want and group with other parties accordingly.”

 

Kiatanantha Lounkaew, director of Public Communication at Thammasat University’s Faculty of Economics, said winning a majority in the House of Representatives did not mean the winner would lead the next government.

 

The academic predicted a period of horse-trading among parties following yesterday’s national vote.

 

“Parties will be busy negotiating for the best deals. It is logical that they all want to be part of the new government. But siding with the winner does not assure long-term benefits. In the coming months, the winner’s position will be very fragile.”

 

Those parties would first have to deal their “pre-election karma”, he added. Major parties exploited an “us and them” strategy to gain popularity. Now, those who side with “them” risk alienating their supporters, who may start to pressure the parties they voted for to honour their campaign positions and pledges. 

 

Second, discontented voters whose parties lost out in the election may not accept the result. If that discontent coalesces into a political movement which gains momentum, it could undermine the legitimacy of the newly formed government.

 

Lastly, the leading party in government will have to balance the demands from coalition parties very carefully. Those demands will continue to grow and there may come a point when satisfying the demands may exceed the benefits of being in office. That scenario may lead to dissolution. And the whole election cycle will start again.

 

Anusorn Tamajai, dean of Rangsit University’s Faculty of Economics, said yesterday he expected Pheu Thai to form the next government as polls indicated it would win most seats. However, if the appointed senators decline to support Pheu Thai and its mandate from voters then political instability could ensue. That political instability would adversely affect the economy, he added.

 

 

Overall, however, he was optimistic that the economy would be boosted by the election of a new government, which would be able to make free trade agreements with other countries that refused to do so while Thailand was under junta-backed rule, he said. 

 

Stanley Kang, chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand, said that while he was not sure which parties would form the coalition government, their policies were in any case similar. 

 

However, he believed that the new government would implement policies that complement globalisation and the Thai economy’s part in it. 

Kang voted for the first time in yesterday’s election after receiving Thai citizenship 10 years ago.

 

Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said yesterday that the law did not say that the party with the most House seats had the right to form the next government. 

 

“You need to look at many factors,” he said, adding that political parties would try to form a coalition after they knew the election results.

 

Last Thursday, Uttama Savanayana, leader of the pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party, said any party able to gather the majority in the Lower House should have the right to form the next government.

 

“You need to listen to the voice of voters. Any coalition able to gather the majority should have the right to form the government,” he said.

 

Meanwhile, the Democrat Party yesterday admitted “a huge loss” after unofficial election results showed the country’s oldest political party was beaten into fifth place.

 

Democrat key figure Ongart Klampaiboon said the party had suffered badly at the hands of Phalang Pracharat.

 

Ongart said his party’s traditional supporters seemed to have shifted over to Phalang Pracharat and “Uncle Tu”, Prayut’s nickname, especially in Bangkok and southern provinces.

 

In previous elections, the Democrats won 22 seats in Bangkok, but voting results this time show that they may have lost their footing in the capital completely.

 

“The overall result shows voters want them [Phalang Pracharat] to govern the country,” said Ongart.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30366484

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-03-25

 

 

[balo]

Future Forward is the future for Thailand, it's just a question of when it will happen. New generations will take over and out with the old ideas. 

[Inn Between]

Will the senate that was was selected by Prayut Chan-o-cha be the ones to determine if he continues as the PM?

[candide]

Taking into account that Prayuth need a only 126 seats to be elected, while the opposition needs 375 seats, one does not need to be an expert to guess the outcome.

[Chelseafan]

34 minutes ago, candide said:

Taking into account that Prayuth need a only 126 seats to be elected, while the opposition needs 375 seats, one does not need to be an expert to guess the outcome.

Yep and as the military have 250 of the 500 seats locked up, it's impossible for the other parties to form a coalition. This is the new "democracy". Hardly worth having an election...

 

[Justgrazing]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Odds against Pheu Thai

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Yet many observers said Phalang Pracharat candidate General Prayut Chan-o-cha, thanks to the 250 senators to be appointed by the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), was still favourite to retain his post when the two Houses vote to select the next prime minister. 

Job done then .. All the fiddling to give a veneer of credibility appears to be about to serve up the desired result .. 

[Oziex1]

Is anyone surprised. 

[Prairieboy]

 Fauxcracy.  Faux from the French for false, and cracy from Democracy)- an apt description for the current circus.

 

[YetAnother]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

“However, it’ll be difficult for Prayut to govern because Pheu Thai will be a big opposition party and will prevent Prayut from gaining an absolute majority,” Titipol said.

well, that is something; at least S44 is in the rear view mirror

[TITOLAS]

Yes . It is/was a simulacre of elections. The Prayut is like a tick. It won’t leave the power position until there’s no more blood tu suck.


Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Eligius]

It is all panning out as many of us predicted. Prayut will 'return' (he acutally never went

away) in triumph as P.M.!

Who would have thunk it?!!!

 

 

[Roadman]

3 hours ago, balo said:

Future Forward is the future for Thailand, it's just a question of when it will happen. New generations will take over and out with the old ideas. 

Agree. But you look at that election result and the same two lots of elites have still garnished the most seats between the two of them which says that Thailand is still not ready to escape the merry go round of the corrupt elected scumbags like the Shinawatra's or the complete incompetence of military rule. Thailand is not going to go ahead unlike it can break the subservient role that many of its uneducated citizens want to be cowered under. 

Issue for this term is what a party like Future Forward can fulfil to present themselves as an alternative and cut vote away from the two major parties at the next election. Their result for a first party is promising. Key is what they now show in opposing corruption and subservience. 

[kingstonkid]

The big question to me is which parties are going to join PT.  Let's face it While right now they have the most people the Thaksin legacy could hurt them forming a coalition.  It might be more palatable to the others to join PPP and get a slice of that pie.  

 

PT has not had a reputation of doing anything other than what uncle T wants them to do and a new party like FFF does not want to be seen associated with him.

[kingstonkid]

30 minutes ago, Roadman said:

Agree. But you look at that election result and the same two lots of elites have still garnished the most seats between the two of them which says that Thailand is still not ready to escape the merry go round of the corrupt elected scumbags like the Shinawatra's or the complete incompetence of military rule. Thailand is not going to go ahead unlike it can break the subservient role that many of its uneducated citizens want to be cowered under. 

Issue for this term is what a party like Future Forward can fulfil to present themselves as an alternative and cut vote away from the two major parties at the next election. Their result for a first party is promising. Key is what they now show in opposing corruption and subservience. 

Looking at the map the only way a new party is going to make headway is to provide the farmers with a different incentive.  To beat PT you have to win in the farming areas.  That is tantamount to the republicans winning NY or California.  Might happen but not in a long time. 

[justin case]

if one does not like the results, there is always the fresh air of a new coup

[Curmudgeon1]

16 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

Yep and as the military have 250 of the 500 seats locked up, it's impossible for the other parties to form a coalition. This is the new "democracy". Hardly worth having an election...

 

I believe it's 250 of 750????

[OneMoreFarang]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

That picture is a strong reminder of the red mob.

Last time I saw them in real was when they were chased out of Bangkok in 2010. Wonderful!

I hope I will never see them again.

[metempsychotic]

5 hours ago, Inn Between said:

Will the senate that was was selected by Prayut Chan-o-cha be the ones to determine if he continues as the PM?

Yes. That has been the point all along. Changes to the constitution have ensured that the junta stays in power one way or another. 

 

250 solid votes on pm candidate, before the first ballot was even cast. 

[robblok]

5 hours ago, candide said:

Taking into account that Prayuth need a only 126 seats to be elected, while the opposition needs 375 seats, one does not need to be an expert to guess the outcome.

Unfortunately your right but ruling will be almost impossible for Prayuth not having a majority.

 

I am pretty amazed at how much vote the pro junta got, almost at PTP size. Not what I had expected or wanted.

 

I am happy the PTP lost so many votes  now at 28,4% of the votes vs 48% before. Even if you add all the constituency votes of Future forward there (unfair IMHO but otherwise some users wil protest) They still only got 32,6%.  (and yes my calculation is crude as i take seats and covert them to a percentage of votes but I made sure I eliminated the 50 seats before)

 

But the biggest loser is the democrats (had to be the junta parties had to get their votes from somewhere). 

 

I wonder what coalitions are going to be made this will be tough. 

 

Well done for the party i like best future forward, from zero to a 14,2% of votes. 

[Matt96]

Bravo, dear Khun Prayuth! thank you so much for defeating left-globalist -populist -foreign puppets! You saved Thailand again, and next generations will never forget your sacrifice for the sovereignty of Thailand. You are the next Prem Tinsulanonda, the saviour, which always emerges in Thailand in times of instability and foreign menace and brings new prosperity, development and stability era. now it's crystal clear.

 

Buddha save you and H. M. The King.

 

 

 

[NanLaew]

5 hours ago, Matt96 said:

Bravo, dear Khun Prayuth! thank you so much for defeating left-globalist -populist -foreign puppets! You saved Thailand again and next generations will never forget your sacrifice for the sovereignty of Thailand. You are the next Prem Tinsulanonda, the saviour, which always emerges in Thailand in times of instability and foreign menace. now it's crystal clear.

 

Buddha save you and the King.

 

 

 

 

I've just been a little bit sick in my mouth...

[mlmcleod]

Yawn, so nothing changes at all!

 

[isaanjohnno]

Thailand is the BIG loser from this farce. 

[Kaopad999]

Oh what a surprise, many people were paid to vote. Somone i am very close to confrimed that to me yesterday. 

[Matt96]

9 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

Oh what a surprise, many people were paid to vote. Somone i am very close to confrimed that to me yesterday. 

do you have any proof? or its just your wishful thinking?

[Kaopad999]

1 minute ago, Matt96 said:

do you have any proof? or its just your wishful thinking?

All i'm saying, is the person that told me would have no reason at all to lie to me. And they said that this is actually the first time they have experienced this during an election campaign. Many other people here have said that this has been happening in other areas across Thailand. 

[robblok]

16 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

Oh what a surprise, many people were paid to vote. Somone i am very close to confrimed that to me yesterday. 

I had not expected any different happend in all elections so far. Seems that this time the PTP did not pay enough hence their huge loss of votes. The pro junta probably paid more had better policies.

 

I said it before it has always been about money and controlling MP's the huge loss that the PTP had shows that (for the record the democrats are of course the ultimate losers)

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

That picture is a strong reminder of the red mob.

Last time I saw them in real was when they were chased out of Bangkok in 2010. Wonderful!

I hope I will never see them again.

Did you also saw the 90+ dead in the hands of the military? Double vision?

[Matt96]

5 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

All i'm saying, is the person that told me would have no reason at all to lie to me. 

so it means that is just your words. And I saw so many times people's votes were bought on previous elections

 

so why your words are better than mine?

 

5 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Did you also saw the 90+ dead in the hands of the military? Double vision?

and why did it happen? maybe because a mob with guns tried to occupy the capital and topple the government in order to install a foreign puppet who pays them?

[elgenon]

Well, if your main desire is to keep Peu Thai out, then the new charter is good no matter who else wins. If PT wins it does have the desire to forgive the the siblings of their verdicts. If you believe there were crimes committed that is not good, if you believe crimes were not committed it is good.