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Thailand votes: Race to muster coalition


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Race to muster coalition

By Political Desk 
The Nation 

 

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Pheu Thai and Phalang Pracharat both claim right to form government with support of likeminded parties

 

A day after the election, two rival parties – the Shinawatra-backed Pheu Thai and the pro-junta Phalang Pracharat – were locked in a close battle to form the next government with little difference between the two in terms of strength in Parliament.

 

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While the Phalang Pracharat Party claims it has secured the “popular vote” from people nationwide, Pheu Thai argued that it has won the most number of MP seats and therefore should be invited first to form the government.

 

With 94 per cent of votes counted yesterday, the pro-junta party grossed 7,939,937 votes nationwide while the Shinawatra-backed Pheu Thai was second with 7,423,361 votes. 

 

In this election, the total number of votes for each party – irrespective of whether its constituency candidates win or not – are combined to determine how many MPs each party gets in total. 

 

The Election Commission (EC) yesterday announced unofficial results of constituency winners. Pheu Thai Party became the single-largest party with 138 seats from all 350 constituencies. Phalang Pracharat, meanwhile, came second, winning 96 seats. 

 

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According to current media calculations, the total number of seats from constituency and party-list, Pheu Thai will get the most number at 138 while Phalang Pracharat will have 119. The EC has not calculated the number of party-list seats.

 

Though both parties can make equally strong claims to form the government, analysts believe it will not be easy for them to sail through Parliament. 

 

Neither camp seems to be in a position to gather 250 seats and that could lead to a deadlock. Moreover, the number between the two camps is too close. 

 

According to the latest figures, the pro-junta camp can gain around 242 seats with support from parties who are clearly opposed to Pheu Thai. 

 

The Pheu Thai camp can also muster 242 seats with support from anti-junta parties like Future Forward, Seri Ruam Thai and Prachachart.

 

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Pheu Thai yesterday claimed victory in the election after the EC announced the results, saying it had emerged as the number one party with 138 winning constituency candidates.

 

“Only the winning party should lead the coalition,” its de facto leader Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan said at a press conference yesterday.

 

“And we will certainly only work with those who oppose the junta’s attempt to retain power.”

 

She said Pheu Thai had prioritised the public interest over everything else. The party insisted on responding to the people’s demand and restoring democracy, she said, though hinting it would be willing to compromise on the PM candidate.

 

Pheu Thai secretary-general Phumtham Wechayachai said that the party was seeking collaboration with other pro-democracy parties and would discuss the PM candidate to find the best option for the country.

 

Pheu Thai leaders have also started putting pressure on the junta-appointed Senate, stressing that senators must be free of any influence and respect the people’s voices as reflected in the election.

 

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Later yesterday, Phalang Pracharat Party leader Uttama Savanayana claimed his party had won the right to form the next government as more than 7.9 million people nationwide had voted for them. He also said he was confident his party could successfully form the next government. 

 

“Every vote is counted and has meaning. We have legitimacy, as we have gained the most trusted votes. Our winning results [with the most votes nationwide] show that voters have given us the mandate to govern the country,” he said at a press conference after the EC announced the unofficial results.

 

“We will ensure that we will do everything according to the mandate of the voters who want us to move the country forward peacefully,” he said.

 

However, he said his party’s principle is that any party who can gather the most seats in the bloc can form the government. 

 

Uttama said he had begun talking with other parties who have common policies to form a coalition government, but declined to disclose the party names.

 

A Phalang Pracharat source said negotiations were on with Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, Chartthai Pattana leader Kanchana Silpa-archa, Suthep Thaugsuban of Action Coalition for Thailand and Suwat Liptapanlop of Chartpattana. The Democrat Party is also negotiating.

 

Anutin yesterday did not commit to joining any side, saying he would do whatever was in the people’s interests. 

 

“There is still time [to consider]. But I insist I won’t support a PM with a minority government as I think the government after the election should have stability and be able to work for the people,” he added.

 

He said he had not yet been contacted by anyone or any party. 

 

 If Phalang Pracharat can close a deal with those parties, its coalition government would have 242 seats but that would still fall short of ensuring stability for the new government led by Prayut Chan-o-cha.

 

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Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit (centre L) speaks during a press conference in Bangkok on March 25, 2019 after Thailand's general election. // AFP PHOTO

 

Meanwhile, the Future Forward Party celebrated victories in 30 constituencies in its electoral debut. |But its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, said he had no intentions of bidding for the top job.

 

“The prime minister must be nominated from the party with the most MPs,” Thanathorn said firmly at a press conference yesterday. “I’m ready to be the PM. But we want to uphold democratic traditions and we won’t bring in any conditions that would lead the country to another deadlock.”

 

The party’s secretary-general, Piyabutr Sangkanokkul, however, set three conditions for Future Forward to join any coalition – write a new constitution, overturn the junta’s legacy, and reform the Army to prevent coups.

 

Analysts see Phalang Pracharat, who have nominated Prayut as the next PM, as most likely to form the next government.

 

“It is the only formula I can see now, judging from the number of MP seats each party has got,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.

 

Although the two blocs are very close in terms of numerical strength, Titipol thinks Phalang Pracharat is at an advantage as it has the support of 250 senators in the vote for PM, so, it would not be difficult to attract other small parties in addition to its allies.

 

In exchange for securing a stable government and Prayut as prime minister, the party would be willing to compromise or sacrifice some important Cabinet positions to those parties invited to join its bloc, Titipol said.

 

The party could also attract other parties by offering provincial budgets for politicians as well.

 

However, with the close race between the two blocs, Titipol thinks that with 52 seats, Bhumjaitai’s Anutin could play hard to get for both camps and will have an upper hand in the negotiations. 

 

The New Economics Party of Mingkwan Sangsuwan, who won six seats, could also join either camp, he added.

 

Titipol still sees some hope for Thai politics even if Pheu Thai becomes an opposition party.

 

“It will benefit the country if they can play a strong opposition role to scrutinise Prayut’s next government and force Phalang Pracharat to learn what true democracy is,” he added.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30366540

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-03-26
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7 minutes ago, webfact said:

Pheu Thai leaders have also started putting pressure on the junta-appointed Senate, stressing that senators must be free of any influence and respect the people’s voices as reflected in the election.

 

I think it's safe to say, the reason they were appointed by the junta was that, they most certainly will NOT be free of any influence, and WILL NOT respect the peoples voices as reflected in the elections !

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34 minutes ago, franzs said:

Living since 30 years in this country, the last 5 years with Prayut on top was the best I have seen over all those years, 

 

Come to our village or any rural communities where the economy has been devastated.....they hate him.

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1 hour ago, franzs said:

Living since 30 years in this country, the last 5 years with Prayut on top was the best I have seen over all those years, 

 

In the West that's called the "missionary position."

Very symbolic politically with authoritarian regimes who have the electorate pinned down.

Thanks for the thought.

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1 hour ago, edwinchester said:

Come to our village or any rural communities where the economy has been devastated.....they hate him.

Obviously not as much as before given the results of the election. The junta party got more votes then the PTP. I would say that is pretty good proof he is not hated as much as you say. (i still hate him and Thaksin too)

 

I seriously expected a huge humiliation of the junta party, now the ones who were humiliated were the Democrats and the PTP with their huge losses of voters. 

 

Yes I like the PTP losing votes (Thaksin is on his way out) , but at the same time I hate the junta getting this many votes. But I am happy that future forward is getting quite a bit of votes. They were the one I would support (still have to prove themselves).

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Interesting also for the southern Thailand provinces-based wherein the Muslim Prachachart Party won 6 seats vs pro-junta Suthep's Action Coalition for Thailand Party that won 1 seat.

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No matter who is the party in power we know 2 things.

 

1. Unlike the past where either the PT or Dem controlled things, there will not be 1 party calling the shots so that will diminish the ability of the little man and his sister.

 

2.  This will not go for more than a couple of years before we have the next election.

 

If I was in charge of Future Forward I would not get in bed with either party.  Stay separate and operate on your mandate.  Do not get in bed with either side.  

 

Stay as an opposition party voting free from the pressures that one or the other may put on you in a coalition

 

Then they truly have the power and can show the people what they can do

 

 

 

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I didn’t see anything changed in the last 5 years in this country except clean up the coup, after the junta took over. The street and the hungers still the same. So next five years gonna be long and tough, hope the people here decide what exactly they want and what exactly they need to be a change for young generation.

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2 hours ago, robblok said:

Obviously not as much as before given the results of the election. The junta party got more votes then the PTP. I would say that is pretty good proof he is not hated as much as you say. (i still hate him and Thaksin too)

 

I seriously expected a huge humiliation of the junta party, now the ones who were humiliated were the Democrats and the PTP with their huge losses of voters. 

 

Yes I like the PTP losing votes (Thaksin is on his way out) , but at the same time I hate the junta getting this many votes. But I am happy that future forward is getting quite a bit of votes. They were the one I would support (still have to prove themselves).

Because you believe that vote count?

 

The only reason the economy did ok was when the Junta decided to call upon Somkid Jatusripitak (co-founder of Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin partner) to fix things after Prayut's Thai happiness concerts policy were threatening to collapse it....

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5 minutes ago, firestar said:

Because you believe that vote count?

 

The only reason the economy did ok was when the Junta decided to call upon Somkid Jatusripitak (co-founder of Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin partner) to fix things after Prayut's Thai happiness concerts policy were threatening to collapse it....

Yes I believe the vote count is largely correct. I don't dispute that there have been irregularities but no large scale fraud. So yes I do believe this a real good indication of what was voted. 

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1 hour ago, kingstonkid said:

No matter who is the party in power we know 2 things.

 

1. Unlike the past where either the PT or Dem controlled things, there will not be 1 party calling the shots so that will diminish the ability of the little man and his sister.

 

2.  This will not go for more than a couple of years before we have the next election.

 

If I was in charge of Future Forward I would not get in bed with either party.  Stay separate and operate on your mandate.  Do not get in bed with either side.  

 

Stay as an opposition party voting free from the pressures that one or the other may put on you in a coalition

 

Then they truly have the power and can show the people what they can do

 

 

 

Its a hard choice for Thanathorn, getting in bed with other parties will tarnish his anti corruption stance if he does not act when he sees things go bad. I would say get in a coalition but blow it up if he sees too much corruption and then point it out. The people will understand then especially if he shows what corruption was there.

 

I think the people would not understand him not joining the PTP right now and let the army take over. So join them but keep them in check or blow up the coalition if they get too corrupt to make sure he does not get the same bad image. 

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Surely there are only 2 options now for these political parties:

 

1. Join forces and the consequences be damned.

 

or

 

2. Accept military rule basically forever.

 

If the Junta form a government now then it really is game over forever.

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3 hours ago, robblok said:

Obviously not as much as before given the results of the election. The junta party got more votes then the PTP. I would say that is pretty good proof he is not hated as much as you say. (i still hate him and Thaksin too)

 

I seriously expected a huge humiliation of the junta party, now the ones who were humiliated were the Democrats and the PTP with their huge losses of voters. 

 

Yes I like the PTP losing votes (Thaksin is on his way out) , but at the same time I hate the junta getting this many votes. But I am happy that future forward is getting quite a bit of votes. They were the one I would support (still have to prove themselves).

Thailand reminds me of the young lady in their TV soapies who is raped by the man but eventually she marries the rapist. "Oh, he loved me so much that he wanted to have sex with me, so he raped me. He must love me to rape me therefore I will stay with him." 

It's the mindest.

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10 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

I think it's safe to say, the reason they were appointed by the junta was that, they most certainly will NOT be free of any influence, and WILL NOT respect the peoples voices as reflected in the elections !

 

Quite possibly. But then the majority of people who voted actually voted for Phalang Pracharat who had only nominated one person as their choice for PM.

 

Not the landslide for PTP predicted by all the Shin fan boy posters on TVF! PTP polled less than half the votes they received last time and less than Phalang Pracharat. Hardly the people's choice any more.

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1 hour ago, robblok said:

Its a hard choice for Thanathorn, getting in bed with other parties will tarnish his anti corruption stance if he does not act when he sees things go bad. I would say get in a coalition but blow it up if he sees too much corruption and then point it out. The people will understand then especially if he shows what corruption was there.

 

I think the people would not understand him not joining the PTP right now and let the army take over. So join them but keep them in check or blow up the coalition if they get too corrupt to make sure he does not get the same bad image. 

 

That's an option for him. I think I'd marginally prefer him to remain independent and vote according to judgement on individual issues. That would provide him with a platform to show leadership, wisdom and show he does what's right for the people and the country; not what's right for a clique in return for rewards.

 

Getting into bed with the Shins is going to be dangerous and could leave him and his new party tainted. Lie down with street dogs and you'll get their fleas!

 

I hope he has the courage and strength to stay independent and that this might encourage other new fresh parties with people who aren't part of the old cliques or their offspring.

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1 hour ago, robblok said:

Yes I believe the vote count is largely correct. I don't dispute that there have been irregularities but no large scale fraud. So yes I do believe this a real good indication of what was voted. 

 

It must be wrong vote count Rob. All the TVF Shin fans predicted a massive landslide for the PTP. And they can't be wrong, can they?

 

Well not in their fantasy world! The reality this is a massive loss for the PTP in vote count and shows the majority of those who voted don't want Thaksin and his family back in charge.

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16 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

It must be wrong vote count Rob. All the TVF Shin fans predicted a massive landslide for the PTP. And they can't be wrong, can they?

 

Well not in their fantasy world! The reality this is a massive loss for the PTP in vote count and shows the majority of those who voted don't want Thaksin and his family back in charge.

If anyone would dispute the votes it would be the democrats. They lost the most I don't see them moaning about it. I think that gives a good indication that there was no large scale vote fraud.

 

Yes the people here who support the Shins are coming up with all kinds of excuses why this huge loss in votes is actually not bad and if they can't convince you then they will say it was large scale fraud. 

 

I guess they were out of touch.

 

Having said that I never expected the junta party to be this big. But I accept the votes. Does not mean there are no incidents because there are. But I believe that is so every election here.

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11 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

It must be wrong vote count Rob. All the TVF Shin fans predicted a massive landslide for the PTP. And they can't be wrong, can they?

 

Well not in their fantasy world! The reality this is a massive loss for the PTP in vote count and shows the majority of those who voted don't want Thaksin and his family back in charge.

Ah Baerboxer, about time a political thread would not be complete without 4/5 posts on page one or two from the Junta's number one apologist

 

Some of us still remember your posts about vote interference to justify blocking polling booth, hijacking trucks with ballot boxes etc etc but now you think those in power changed a constitution and staged a coup to suit their needs 100% respect the voter? Haha

 

And sorry but we don't all share your obsession with everything PTP related, looking at some of the information coming out Future Forward may have been the main victim of "strange" counting, how do you explain someone after 60% of votes counted has 30 000 votes but after 90% he is DOWN to 7000?

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

It must be wrong vote count Rob. All the TVF Shin fans predicted a massive landslide for the PTP. And they can't be wrong, can they?

 

Well not in their fantasy world! The reality this is a massive loss for the PTP in vote count and shows the majority of those who voted don't want Thaksin and his family back in charge.

Come on BB. Stop being so naive. Every parties will give a morale boosting pep talk to their members and supporters. 

 

Will you continue to deny that you don’t know the reasons why PTP fell short of a landslide? Anyway they win by the number of seats won and they didn’t contest in all constituencies. Why they didn’t contest all seats; you also know. 

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2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Come on BB. Stop being so naive. Every parties will give a morale boosting pep talk to their members and supporters. 

 

Will you continue to deny that you don’t know the reasons why PTP fell short of a landslide? Anyway they win by the number of seats won and they didn’t contest in all constituencies. Why they didn’t contest all seats; you also know. 

They fell short of a landslide because of dwindling popularity, MP's switching sides taking voters with them (shows votes are not bound to PTP but to their local big shots), and of course their failed bet on dragging royalty in the election. 

 

I am happy that you at least admit that this is NOT a landslide victory, its a huge loss even though they are still the largest party (seats wise) they got less votes then the junta party. 

 

Even if you count all constituencies wins from future forward towards the PTP (not fair of course but the best scenario) then they still did worse then before. So that negates the constituencies issue.

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8 minutes ago, robblok said:

They fell short of a landslide because of dwindling popularity, MP's switching sides taking voters with them (shows votes are not bound to PTP but to their local big shots), and of course their failed bet on dragging royalty in the election. 

 

I am happy that you at least admit that this is NOT a landslide victory, its a huge loss even though they are still the largest party (seats wise) they got less votes then the junta party. 

 

Even if you count all constituencies wins from future forward towards the PTP (not fair of course but the best scenario) then they still did worse then before. So that negates the constituencies issue.

They did worse because they decided to play game and not challenge the military head on

 

Future Forward did better because they took over were PTP left promising to rewrite the constitution and reform the military. Those who voted for FF are amongst the ex PTP hardliners

 

 

____________

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51 minutes ago, newatthis said:

Thailand reminds me of the young lady in their TV soapies who is raped by the man but eventually she marries the rapist. "Oh, he loved me so much that he wanted to have sex with me, so he raped me. He must love me to rape me therefore I will stay with him." 

It's the mindest.

agree there is even another soapie shaping up the same as that, so sicking but the Thais love it the last rape only lasted until it was in so to say.

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4 hours ago, robblok said:

But I am happy that future forward is getting quite a bit of votes. They were the one I would support (still have to prove themselves).

I have not followed everything very closely. Can you tell me who is financing FF as we know where the other major parties are getting their money.

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2 minutes ago, GreasyFingers said:

I have not followed everything very closely. Can you tell me who is financing FF as we know where the other major parties are getting their money.

I can't say who is financing them, but the top man is quite rich.

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1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Quite possibly. But then the majority of people who voted actually voted for Phalang Pracharat who had only nominated one person as their choice for PM.

 

Not the landslide for PTP predicted by all the Shin fan boy posters on TVF! PTP polled less than half the votes they received last time and less than Phalang Pracharat. Hardly the people's choice any more.

Actually the majority of people that voted did not vote for Phalang Pracharat, not even close. I realize the numbers don't add up, but there were about 51 million elligible voters, if the figures are to be believed, 65% of those bothered to show up (a very low turnout), making 33.15 million votes cast, 7.5 million doesn't even come close to a majority. One needs over 16 million for that. 

 

As to the landslide for PTP, that would never be allowed. Even though they might have received less votes (if the counting is believed, and there are grave doubts about this) they apparently still have more seats, therefore they seem to be the people's choice once more. PTP and the previous incarnations of that party, have never lost a general election. And unless the EC finds a way to cheat a little more, it is doubtful they have lost this one. 

 

As to PT losing half of the votes, not really, considering you completely seem to leave out the much lower turnout. I know politics and elections so difficult if one fails to take everything into account...

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1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

That's an option for him. I think I'd marginally prefer him to remain independent and vote according to judgement on individual issues. That would provide him with a platform to show leadership, wisdom and show he does what's right for the people and the country; not what's right for a clique in return for rewards.

 

Getting into bed with the Shins is going to be dangerous and could leave him and his new party tainted. Lie down with street dogs and you'll get their fleas!

 

I hope he has the courage and strength to stay independent and that this might encourage other new fresh parties with people who aren't part of the old cliques or their offspring.

In this interview he seems to be saying that he is happy to be in opposition and doesn't feel comfortable aligning with other parties. Foresees instability with the close election result, another possible election and maybe further military intervention (surely not). Have to say I do like him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMyYDDImq-s

 

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