Thailand votes: Race to muster coalition

[brucec64]

2 hours ago, robblok said:

Yes I believe the vote count is largely correct. I don't dispute that there have been irregularities but no large scale fraud. So yes I do believe this a real good indication of what was voted.  

Is it normal to have 2 million spoilt ballots? I bet 99% of those were not intended for the junta. The plan all along was that the junta could not control the NE (and the election staff there) and win the number of seats, but manipulated enough to win the total number of votes, and make a claim that they are a valid government.

 

Again, 2 million spoilt ballots? How many spoilt ballots in the last election in your country?

[robblok]

13 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

Is it normal to have 2 million spoilt ballots? I bet 99% of those were not intended for the junta. The plan all along was that the junta could not control the NE (and the election staff there) and win the number of seats, but manipulated enough to win the total number of votes, and make a claim that they are a valid government.

 

Again, 2 million spoilt ballots? How many spoilt ballots in the last election in your country?

If you can give me a link that also states that these were all anti junta votes ? 

 

I don't dispute that there are irregularities, but all the parties are looking into that and if they find something it will emerge. They can do that far better then you or me. The moment they come with proof I am the first to believe you. Until then just accept the election. 

 

 

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, robblok said:

They fell short of a landslide because of dwindling popularity, MP's switching sides taking voters with them (shows votes are not bound to PTP but to their local big shots), and of course their failed bet on dragging royalty in the election. 

 

I am happy that you at least admit that this is NOT a landslide victory, its a huge loss even though they are still the largest party (seats wise) they got less votes then the junta party. 

 

Even if you count all constituencies wins from future forward towards the PTP (not fair of course but the best scenario) then they still did worse then before. So that negates the constituencies issue.

Credit to you giving a part answer but here is the real reason.

 

“The run-up to Thailand's weekend vote was "heavily tilted" to benefit a party close to the ruling military junta, an Asian election monitor said on Tuesday, and criticised a messy ballot-counting process thatcreated mistrust.“. 

[robblok]

4 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Credit to you giving a part answer but here is the real reason.

 

“The run-up to Thailand's weekend vote was "heavily tilted" to benefit a party close to the ruling military junta, an Asian election monitor said on Tuesday, and criticised a messy ballot-counting process thatcreated mistrust.“. 

Of course the junta had an advantage (the party in power usually has PTP had it before). I won't deny it I am more then happy that you already accepted that the PTP is not preforming well. Seems you are more of a realist then I had given you previously credit for.

 

The campaigning was unfair Prayut had a advantage.. never denied that. But it does show that people are starting to forget the Shins and are looking at money and benefits given to them by the junta. 

 

Even in the red parts did the PTP preform worse. (was an article on that).

 

I 100% agree the junta had an advantage but that does show that loyalty is not to PTP but to the wallet of the one voting (and I don't mean vote buying as in handing over money) But welfare cards and so on are helping people and they worry they lose them.

 

At least that is what I was told by the GF who has family in the red area's. She said they are more loyal to their local leaders then to the PTP. This time the junta swooped them up instead the PTP (remember the mass defections and you saying they would not get votes.. guess not exactly true given the outcome of the voting)

[Eric Loh]

9 minutes ago, robblok said:

100% agree the junta had an advantage

Don’t think you understand me. Junta cheated. It’s not an advantage. 

[sjaak327]

4 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Don’t think you understand me. Junta cheated. It’s not an advantage. 

There is ample evidence the junta has been cheating. Apart from the unfair advantage they awarded themselves.

 

It is evident that PTP lost a lot of popularity, certainly compared to 2011, also one needs to understand that an alternative for PTP emerged via FFP, a party that seems to already sided with PTP against the military junta, and already made public to support the PTP candidate for Pm. 

 

The biggest surprise to me is not that PTP lost votes, but the almost decimation of the democrats. It was Always evident that Prayuth would get a lot of votes at the cost of the democrats, but not at this rate. I mean, there is almost nothing left of that party. This is a party that grabbed 11 million last time, and now barely gets 4 million. Completely guttted in most of their own strongholds. 

 

To me a shame, as Abisit at least publicly, distanced himself from the junta. Now that he is gone, there is little or no doubt the "democrats" will side with Prayuth. 

 

At the very least, with PTP and FFP performing like they did, Prayuth probably will be unable to secure a normal majority in the lower house. Which means his eventual government will be teethless. A bit like, at least they can't break any more stuff. They have broken enough already the past five years. 

 

[hargri]

18 minutes ago, robblok said:

Of course the junta had an advantage (the party in power usually has PTP had it before). I won't deny it I am more then happy that you already accepted that the PTP is not preforming well. Seems you are more of a realist then I had given you previously credit for.

 

The campaigning was unfair Prayut had a advantage.. never denied that. But it does show that people are starting to forget the Shins and are looking at money and benefits given to them by the junta. 

 

Even in the red parts did the PTP preform worse. (was an article on that).

 

I 100% agree the junta had an advantage but that does show that loyalty is not to PTP but to the wallet of the one voting (and I don't mean vote buying as in handing over money) But welfare cards and so on are helping people and they worry they lose them.

 

At least that is what I was told by the GF who has family in the red area's. She said they are more loyal to their local leaders then to the PTP. This time the junta swooped them up instead the PTP (remember the mass defections and you saying they would not get votes.. guess not exactly true given the outcome of the voting)

"Of course the junta had an advantage (the party in power usually has PTP had it before)."

What an utterly crass comment. Did PTP ban every other party from electioneering while they ran around Thailand dispensing largesse. Did they set up an upper house with 250 appointed stooges meaning they only had to win 126 seats to gain a majority compared to 376 for any other party. I could go on but perhaps you should just watch this youtube clip.

 

 

 

[robblok]

1 minute ago, sjaak327 said:

There is ample evidence the junta has been cheating. Apart from the unfair advantage they awarded themselves.

 

It is evident that PTP lost a lot of popularity, certainly compared to 2011, also one needs to understand that an alternative for PTP emerged via FFP, a party that seems to already sided with PTP against the military junta, and already made public to support the PTP candidate for Pm. 

 

The biggest surprise to me is not that PTP lost votes, but the almost decimation of the democrats. It was Always evident that Prayuth would get a lot of votes at the cost of the democrats, but not at this rate. I mean, there is almost nothing left of that party. This is a party that grabbed 11 million last time, and now barely gets 4 million. Completely guttted in most of their own strongholds. 

 

To me a shame, as Abisit at least publicly, distanced himself from the junta. Now that he is gone, there is little or no doubt the "democrats" will side with Prayuth. 

 

At the very least, with PTP and FFP performing like they did, Prayuth probably will be unable to secure a normal majority in the lower house. Which means his eventual government will be teethless. A bit like, at least they can't break any more stuff. They have broken enough already the past five years. 

 

Seems people finally accept that the PTP is losing their shine, they lost hugely but the democrats got wiped out like you said. 

 

It just shows that many who supported the Democrats did not trust Abisith not to help the PTP and chose for the junta party to make sure. Now at least its clear what these people want, military rule.

 

I never ever imagined that it would be this huge and it came to a shock to all on this forum. I really expected a humiliating loss for Prayut. Everyone here always said how hated he was, maybe people projected their own ideas on the populace. I certainly did not think there were this many who liked him. His temper tantrums and unwillingness to investigate any wrongdoings on his side made him someone i really dislike and put next to Suthep and Thaksin and Charlem (personal opinion)

 

 

[sjaak327]

3 minutes ago, robblok said:

Seems people finally accept that the PTP is losing their shine, they lost hugely but the democrats got wiped out like you said. 

 

It just shows that many who supported the Democrats did not trust Abisith not to help the PTP and chose for the junta party to make sure. Now at least its clear what these people want, military rule.

 

I never ever imagined that it would be this huge and it came to a shock to all on this forum. I really expected a humiliating loss for Prayut. Everyone here always said how hated he was, maybe people projected their own ideas on the populace. I certainly did not think there were this many who liked him. His temper tantrums and unwillingness to investigate any wrongdoings on his side made him someone i really dislike and put next to Suthep and Thaksin and Charlem (personal opinion)

 

 

It was clear from the beginning that Prayuth would not loose, he literally bought several MP's from PTP, bought support from other parties and was Lucky the democrats were wiped out. The questions I would like an answer to are: 1) how is it possible that the exit poll differs in such a great way from the actual result (or partial result as published) 2) There seem to be a glaring amount of irregularities 3) How is it possible that according to various sources, PTP gains 138 constistueny seats and not a single party list seat. 

 

Or is this the same as with the senators voting, did they change the formula, and are discarding votes like there is no tomorrow. It is almost impossible to believe that votes cast for PTP in the remaining 212 constituencies they didn't manage to win, are not even enough for a single party list vote. 

[BobBKK]

Shocked the Junta got so many votes but with the Forces under strict order to vote Prayut what could we expect?  Prayut had 250 buddies in his pocket before it even kicked off and still PTP and FFP combined beat them even after they banned a party. Next is dissolution of FFP?  they CANNOT win fairly

[JAG]

6 hours ago, Srikcir said:

In the West that's called the "missionary position."

Very symbolic politically with authoritarian regimes who have the electorate pinned down.

Thanks for the thought.

In some UK circles (military) such an event is known as OP BOHICA, as in "Bend Over, Here It Comes Again"!

[BobBKK]

4 minutes ago, robblok said:

Seems people finally accept that the PTP is losing their shine, they lost hugely but the democrats got wiped out like you said. 

 

It just shows that many who supported the Democrats did not trust Abisith not to help the PTP and chose for the junta party to make sure. Now at least its clear what these people want, military rule.

 

I never ever imagined that it would be this huge and it came to a shock to all on this forum. I really expected a humiliating loss for Prayut. Everyone here always said how hated he was, maybe people projected their own ideas on the populace. I certainly did not think there were this many who liked him. His temper tantrums and unwillingness to investigate any wrongdoings on his side made him someone i really dislike and put next to Suthep and Thaksin and Charlem (personal opinion)

 

 

Lost hugely?  what???  after all the unfairness, no debates, no rallies they lost 'hugely' what are you on? you think his 8m votes were Kosher?  really?

[Kasane]

Elections all over the world are better then TV's reality shows.

[candide]

25 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

The biggest surprise to me is not that PTP lost votes, but the almost decimation of the democrats. It was Always evident that Prayuth would get a lot of votes at the cost of the democrats, but not at this rate. I mean, there is almost nothing left of that party. This is a party that grabbed 11 million last time, and now barely gets 4 million. Completely guttted in most of their own strongholds. 

Maybe not so surprising. As Abhisit stated he would not support Prayuth, they lost the pro-miliary votes. However, having de facto contributed to the coup, they also lost some pro-democracy votes (probably to FFP). There was also the creation of an independent party in the South.

[JAG]

4 hours ago, robblok said:

Yes I believe the vote count is largely correct. I don't dispute that there have been irregularities but no large scale fraud. So yes I do believe this a real good indication of what was voted. 

Perhaps your view is influenced by the fact that these declared results have paralleled the results which you have been anticipating, or hoping for, for some time.

 

On the other hand, many (including Thais) are quite surprised, in particular at the claimed "popular vote" and are rather more sceptical on the issue - in particular, the scale - of counting irregularities.

 

Personally, I simply don't know, but would not be inclined to believe the Electoral Commission if they were to announce that the sun will come up tomorrow!

[robblok]

13 minutes ago, JAG said:

Perhaps your view is influenced by the fact that these declared results have paralleled the results which you have been anticipating, or hoping for, for some time.

 

On the other hand, many (including Thais) are quite surprised, in particular at the claimed "popular vote" and are rather more sceptical on the issue - in particular, the scale - of counting irregularities.

 

Personally, I simply don't know, but would not be inclined to believe the Electoral Commission if they were to announce that the sun will come up tomorrow!

Jag,

 

I certainly did not anticipate that at all. I did anticipate the PTP losing given the fact that many of their MP's defected (everyone said that the voters would punish them but they did not). So yes I did anticipate the loss of the PTP. I made a few bets with people who are now awfully silent that there would be no landslide victory.

 

Never in my wildest dreams (nightmare) did I expect the pro junta party to decimate the democrats. That is a total surprise.

 

My stance is based more on logic, to have huge fraud it would involve many people. Someone would talk for sure. You cannot pull of a huge fraud secretly. I just don't believe it there are always whistle blowers, there will be rewards from people who lost the election to come up with proof.

 

I will bow to definite proof but not to to those disappointed that their party did not do well. 

 

I do believe there was an unfair advantage and cheating, but I don't believe in massive manipulation of the votes.

 

 

[robblok]

36 minutes ago, BobBKK said:

Lost hugely?  what???  after all the unfairness, no debates, no rallies they lost 'hugely' what are you on? you think his 8m votes were Kosher?  really?

Yes I do think losing almost half of your votes is a bad results. Sorry guess we differ in what is a huge loss.

[robblok]

42 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

It was clear from the beginning that Prayuth would not loose, he literally bought several MP's from PTP, bought support from other parties and was Lucky the democrats were wiped out. The questions I would like an answer to are: 1) how is it possible that the exit poll differs in such a great way from the actual result (or partial result as published) 2) There seem to be a glaring amount of irregularities 3) How is it possible that according to various sources, PTP gains 138 constistueny seats and not a single party list seat. 

 

Or is this the same as with the senators voting, did they change the formula, and are discarding votes like there is no tomorrow. It is almost impossible to believe that votes cast for PTP in the remaining 212 constituencies they didn't manage to win, are not even enough for a single party list vote. 

Sjaak yes he bought MP's from the PTP MP's the PTP bought before so seems fair to me. I don't see anything wrong with that. But all the people here said that those MP's would lose hugely. They did not. So it seems that local leaders are far more important to the people then the parties they represent. Thaksin courted them before made the PTP big and now they defected and the voters defected with them.  

[sjaak327]

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

Sjaak yes he bought MP's from the PTP MP's the PTP bought before so seems fair to me. I don't see anything wrong with that. But all the people here said that those MP's would lose hugely. They did not. So it seems that local leaders are far more important to the people then the parties they represent. Thaksin courted them before made the PTP big and now they defected and the voters defected with them.  

Oh, that's not the issue really. Apart from the dissolvement of one of Thaksin's parties under suspicious grounds, I still would very much like the EC to answer my three questions. I personally believe they are cheating, and I am far from the only one. There are simply too many questions which aren't answered to satisfaction. 

[robblok]

29 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

Oh, that's not the issue really. Apart from the dissolvement of one of Thaksin's parties under suspicious grounds, I still would very much like the EC to answer my three questions. I personally believe they are cheating, and I am far from the only one. There are simply too many questions which aren't answered to satisfaction. 

I am sure your not the only one who has questions and people with power and money will ask the same questions. I said it before true fraud will be found if its there. You can't hide things like that with too many people involved.

[bristolgeoff]

Somehow I don,t see takism party or the junta ever coming together.just like the UK with remain and leave.they got to find someone to join they side

[Grafting Ken]

I am totally shocked by some people's comments on this thread that they expected the Prayut to take a huge beating in this election... I knew, my wife's family knew, in fact the whole village knew including the soi dogs.... it was obvious years ago what was going to happen.
As for posters saying he is hated by everyone in the country you are wrong... he is not. All the older people here and in surrounding villages voted for him because they like him.
By the way my family voted FF.
Next coup in June!


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[sjaak327]

1 hour ago, robblok said:

I am sure your not the only one who has questions and people with power and money will ask the same questions. I said it before true fraud will be found if its there. You can't hide things like that with too many people involved.

This Administration has managed to sweep fraud and downright theft under the carpet for the last five years, I am sure a little election is no problem either. 

 

The questions I asked seem to indicate this election is rigged. Especially number 3, that is mathematically simply impossible. PTP lost several constituenties with a narrow margin, those votes alone should be good for several party list seats, as it stands now, both the Bangkok post and some other source are indicating PTP gained 0 party list seats ! Not possible.

[MalandLee]

How is that word “democracy” to be interpreted? My idea of it is that the plain, humble, common man, just the ordinary man who keeps a wife and family, who goes off to fight for his country when it is in trouble, goes to the poll at the appropriate time, and puts his cross on the ballot paper showing the candidate he wishes to be elected to Parliament—that he is the foundation of democracy. And it is also essential to this foundation that this man or woman should do this without fear, and without any form of intimidation or victimization. He marks his ballot paper in strict secrecy, and then elected representatives and together decide what government, or even in times of stress, what form of government they wish to have in their country. If that is democracy, I salute it. I espouse it. I would work for it.” — Winston Churchill, House of Commons, 8 December 1944

 

I had hoped this would happen here..... I was so wrong

[brucec64]

If you can give me a link that also states that these were all anti junta votes ? 
 
I don't dispute that there are irregularities, but all the parties are looking into that and if they find something it will emerge. They can do that far better then you or me. The moment they come with proof I am the first to believe you. Until then just accept the election. 
 
 

It took you 3 years of supporting the junta to finally realize how corrupt they were. The junta absolutely rigged this election. Save us all the time of giving them the benefit of the doubt again...

Sent from my SM-N950F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[notmyself]

14 hours ago, franzs said:

Living since 30 years in this country, the last 5 years with Prayut on top was the best I have seen over all those years, 

 

 

Tell that to the people who have visited the attitude adjustment resort and spa.

 

[BobBKK]

On 3/26/2019 at 4:44 PM, robblok said:

Yes I do think losing almost half of your votes is a bad results. Sorry guess we differ in what is a huge loss.

No i don't not within the context of this farce

[BobBKK]

On 3/26/2019 at 4:44 PM, robblok said:

Yes I do think losing almost half of your votes is a bad results. Sorry guess we differ in what is a huge loss.

After four years of rigging the entire system, stifling debate and campaigning, dissolving parties and running the country as a dictatorship? FFp + PTP = 42.5%  and the ruling bootlickers?  28%

 

in ANY country that is GAME OVER. May and Trump did not win pop vote - that is a red herring. FFP and PTP +++ have over 50% of the pop VOTE. You cannot possible argue against that.

[robblok]

Just now, BobBKK said:

No i don't not within the context of this farce

Like i said just a difference of opinion, the huge loss of the PTP (democrats lost more) is partly because a lot of former PTP MP's. In my eyes that just shows that it was never the PTP that was popular but those MP's that they before scooped up in their party. Now they switched sides and the people who voted for them just went with them. 

 

So yes I think it shows they are not as popular as before, almost everyone agrees with this. Sure they were at a disadvantage BUT if the junta was as hated as everyone said then those votes would never have been cast for the junta.

 

Just for the record, i had expected a humiliating loss for the junta party because all of you said that those MP's would lose all their voters but they did not.

 

I am supportive of FFW and dislike the junta party as much as the PTP. I don't mind FFW being in a coalition against the junta and I want the PTP to rule now. Why because they are quite weak now so they wont be pulling any crazy stunts like trying to get Thaksin home. Now they must work for the public to gain support again. 

[robblok]

1 minute ago, BobBKK said:

After four years of rigging the entire system, stifling debate and campaigning, dissolving parties and running the country as a dictatorship? FFp + PTP = 42.5%  and the ruling bootlickers?  28%

 

in ANY country that is GAME OVER. May and Trump did not win pop vote - that is a red herring. FFP and PTP +++ have over 50% of the pop VOTE. You cannot possible argue against that.

You are equating FFP and PTP to make the loss look less, that is of course crazy as they are not the same. They have similar goals but FFW is not run by Thaksin they just both dislike the junta and form an alliance. So I don't see why you add their votes to those of the PTP. 

 

I really hope the PTP shrinks more and FFW grows.