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Thailand votes: Race to muster coalition


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Just now, robblok said:

Like i said just a difference of opinion, the huge loss of the PTP (democrats lost more) is partly because a lot of former PTP MP's. In my eyes that just shows that it was never the PTP that was popular but those MP's that they before scooped up in their party. Now they switched sides and the people who voted for them just went with them. 

 

So yes I think it shows they are not as popular as before, almost everyone agrees with this. Sure they were at a disadvantage BUT if the junta was as hated as everyone said then those votes would never have been cast for the junta.

 

Just for the record, i had expected a humiliating loss for the junta party because all of you said that those MP's would lose all their voters but they did not.

 

I am supportive of FFW and dislike the junta party as much as the PTP. I don't mind FFW being in a coalition against the junta and I want the PTP to rule now. Why because they are quite weak now so they wont be pulling any crazy stunts like trying to get Thaksin home. Now they must work for the public to gain support again. 

You are plainly WRONG.  Only 28% of Thais voted for the dictatorship.  PM May has a coalition in UK and THAT is the normal way to have a government.  COALITION which with FFP +++  now is over 50% of the country.  

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Just now, robblok said:

You are equating FFP and PTP to make the loss look less, that is of course crazy as they are not the same. They have similar goals but FFW is not run by Thaksin they just both dislike the junta and form an alliance. So I don't see why you add their votes to those of the PTP. 

 

I really hope the PTP shrinks more and FFW grows.

I support FFP and I like PTP and they form a COALITION this is STANDARD in all democracy's.  UK, France, Germany etc. etc.  why do you think a minority party like the yellows with 28% should win?  thats amazing

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1 minute ago, BobBKK said:

You are plainly WRONG.  Only 28% of Thais voted for the dictatorship.  PM May has a coalition in UK and THAT is the normal way to have a government.  COALITION which with FFP +++  now is over 50% of the country.  

Your totally missing the point, 28% supporting the junta is huge. (especially after everyone thought it would be a huge loss for them)

 

I was only commenting on the decline of the PTP not on the coalition with FFW.

 

I feel the PTP and FFW have the right to form the coalition no discussion about that at all.

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4 minutes ago, BobBKK said:

I support FFP and I like PTP and they form a COALITION this is STANDARD in all democracy's.  UK, France, Germany etc. etc.  why do you think a minority party like the yellows with 28% should win?  thats amazing

I dont think there should be a minority government, i think PTP and FFP should rule (with those other parties). 

 

My only comments were about the decline of the PTP NOT that they should not form a government. They still are the biggest party they have this right.

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13 minutes ago, robblok said:

Like i said just a difference of opinion, the huge loss of the PTP (democrats lost more) is partly because a lot of former PTP MP's. In my eyes that just shows that it was never the PTP that was popular but those MP's that they before scooped up in their party. Now they switched sides and the people who voted for them just went with them. 

 

So yes I think it shows they are not as popular as before, almost everyone agrees with this. Sure they were at a disadvantage BUT if the junta was as hated as everyone said then those votes would never have been cast for the junta.

 

Just for the record, i had expected a humiliating loss for the junta party because all of you said that those MP's would lose all their voters but they did not.

 

I am supportive of FFW and dislike the junta party as much as the PTP. I don't mind FFW being in a coalition against the junta and I want the PTP to rule now. Why because they are quite weak now so they wont be pulling any crazy stunts like trying to get Thaksin home. Now they must work for the public to gain support again. 

The huge loss of the PTP is not just because quite a few MP's departed, it is probably caused more by sabotage by the EC. After all PTP fielded candidates in 250 out of 350 constituencies, the rest was meant to be contested by Thai Raksa Chart and we all know what happened to them. 

 

As to Prayuth, unless he cheats a bit more (it boggles the mind why the remaining 5% of the votes cannot be counted and announced way way before the 9th of may) this can only be described as a major loss of face for him. He created an unlevel playing field, threw money away like there was no tomorrow, but in the end, all he achieved was taking a shit load of votes away from the democrats, and that's all he did. His party will be unable to form a majority in the lower house. 

 

And since the opposition seems to be very United in their desire to stop him, unless he either cancels this election or cheats, it is game over for him. Yes he can get the PM post with the 250 appointed senators, but that's only half the story. Once he forms the coalition, he looses article 44, and the anti junta majority in the lower house can simply send his government packing. If that happens, he lost his leverage, no more vote buying, no unlevel playing field. Let's see how well his party does without it. can't wait. 

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23 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

The huge loss of the PTP is not just because quite a few MP's departed, it is probably caused more by sabotage by the EC. After all PTP fielded candidates in 250 out of 350 constituencies, the rest was meant to be contested by Thai Raksa Chart and we all know what happened to them. 

 

As to Prayuth, unless he cheats a bit more (it boggles the mind why the remaining 5% of the votes cannot be counted and announced way way before the 9th of may) this can only be described as a major loss of face for him. He created an unlevel playing field, threw money away like there was no tomorrow, but in the end, all he achieved was taking a shit load of votes away from the democrats, and that's all he did. His party will be unable to form a majority in the lower house. 

 

And since the opposition seems to be very United in their desire to stop him, unless he either cancels this election or cheats, it is game over for him. Yes he can get the PM post with the 250 appointed senators, but that's only half the story. Once he forms the coalition, he looses article 44, and the anti junta majority in the lower house can simply send his government packing. If that happens, he lost his leverage, no more vote buying, no unlevel playing field. Let's see how well his party does without it. can't wait. 

If its just the constituencies why did they loose the popular vote too if they were so popular ? I believe people could vote PTP too even if they fielded no candidate. I believe there were 2 things to vote for. (i could be wrong please correct me if I am as I am not totally clear on this)

 

Anyway throwing around money like no tomorrow was what the PTP did too with their rice program so not really fair to complain about it when it does not suit your purpose. IMHO it shows people vote for their wallet and hold far less loyalty to Thaksin then people here like us to believe. Same with the defecting MP's the PTP paid them to stay someone paid more and gone were the votes. Just diminishes a lot of the PTP legend people like to portrait here. He did not only draw them away from the democrats but PTP too they did a lot worse then before in the north. Its time for people to accept that the PTP is still the biggest party but a lot less popular like people want to believe.

 

I sincerely hope Prayut is gone, I prefer a PTP FFP and others in a coalition. However with the democrats not joining them and the BJT still looking at who offers the best things it will be hard for them too.

 

It would be funny to see Prayut govern without his powers but im not sure the entertainment value alone is enough to put Thailand through this. 

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23 minutes ago, robblok said:

If its just the constituencies why did they loose the popular vote too if they were so popular ? I believe people could vote PTP too even if they fielded no candidate. I believe there were 2 things to vote for. (i could be wrong please correct me if I am as I am not totally clear on this)

 

Anyway throwing around money like no tomorrow was what the PTP did too with their rice program so not really fair to complain about it when it does not suit your purpose. IMHO it shows people vote for their wallet and hold far less loyalty to Thaksin then people here like us to believe. Same with the defecting MP's the PTP paid them to stay someone paid more and gone were the votes. Just diminishes a lot of the PTP legend people like to portrait here. He did not only draw them away from the democrats but PTP too they did a lot worse then before in the north. Its time for people to accept that the PTP is still the biggest party but a lot less popular like people want to believe.

 

I sincerely hope Prayut is gone, I prefer a PTP FFP and others in a coalition. However with the democrats not joining them and the BJT still looking at who offers the best things it will be hard for them too.

 

It would be funny to see Prayut govern without his powers but im not sure the entertainment value alone is enough to put Thailand through this. 

No, this has been changed, there is only one thing to vote for. Before the Junta one indeed had to cast two votes, now just one. People could not vote for PTP if they were not fielding candidates in that constitutency. I can quite clearly see, you are making remarks about a huge loss of PTP without knowing and considering all the facts. I think it is way to early to suggest that PTP is done for, as some of the Junta fanboys are claiming. 

 

Comparing the rice scheme with what Prayuth has been doing is not the same thing rob, be fair. It doesn't even come close. Prayuth have been handing out money to voters using tax payer money and no checks and balances, the fund, conveniently named after the political party. Absolutely two different things. 

 

As to the loyalty of the people, again, in a free and fair election one could actually make meaningful remarks about it, this election does not fit this bill, as already explained to you.

 

Prayuth has overplayed his hand. I was Always surprised why the senate and the 20 year road map would not be enough post Junta. He had to try and become PM, but with this election result, that adventure will not take awfully long. And I bet he knows it too. 

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1 hour ago, robblok said:

Your totally missing the point, 28% supporting the junta is huge. (especially after everyone thought it would be a huge loss for them)

 

I was only commenting on the decline of the PTP not on the coalition with FFW.

 

I feel the PTP and FFW have the right to form the coalition no discussion about that at all.

Ok fair enough. I don't understand why there is ANY debate about whether a coalition valid. It happens in ALL democracy's yet I fear the yellows will steal the election. One things for sure this will NOT settle anything.

PS I have grave doubts their 8m is kosher

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1 hour ago, robblok said:

I dont think there should be a minority government, i think PTP and FFP should rule (with those other parties). 

 

My only comments were about the decline of the PTP NOT that they should not form a government. They still are the biggest party they have this right.

But they did not field candidates in the consistencies where the yellows banned the Princess party. I know for a FACT thew Army etc were ordered to vote for... Uncle Tu.

 

I don't think PTP have declined much and it make more sense to count the 'coalition' as one count?  Prayut will take this election and resentment will build.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, robblok said:

If its just the constituencies why did they loose the popular vote too if they were so popular ? I believe people could vote PTP too even if they fielded no candidate. I believe there were 2 things to vote for. (i could be wrong please correct me if I am as I am not totally clear on this)

 

Anyway throwing around money like no tomorrow was what the PTP did too with their rice program so not really fair to complain about it when it does not suit your purpose. IMHO it shows people vote for their wallet and hold far less loyalty to Thaksin then people here like us to believe. Same with the defecting MP's the PTP paid them to stay someone paid more and gone were the votes. Just diminishes a lot of the PTP legend people like to portrait here. He did not only draw them away from the democrats but PTP too they did a lot worse then before in the north. Its time for people to accept that the PTP is still the biggest party but a lot less popular like people want to believe.

 

I sincerely hope Prayut is gone, I prefer a PTP FFP and others in a coalition. However with the democrats not joining them and the BJT still looking at who offers the best things it will be hard for them too.

 

It would be funny to see Prayut govern without his powers but im not sure the entertainment value alone is enough to put Thailand through this. 

PTP DID NOT CONTEST ALL 350 CONSTITUENCIES!

How hard is this simple fact to absorb?

PTP got 7 million votes contesting only 250 constituencies.

PTP averaged around 28,000 votes per constituency whilst Palang Pracharat (allegedly) averaged around 21,000 per constituency.

Had PTP contested all 350 constituencies they would most likely have received somewhere in the vicinity of 9 - 10 million votes.

Easily winning the popular vote.

Why did they not contest all 350 constituencies?

Because of the ridiculous system under the ridiculous constitution means they would have less seats in their coalition if they contested all constituencies.

Only a fool would believe that the results of the election genuinely reflect the will of the Thai people.

How hilarious it is that all the peanuts that rabbited on and on and on about Thaksin supposedly cheating in previous elections now remain so silent about real, actual and obvious cheating by the Junta.

Anyone who thought that unelected rule was/is better than democracy was/is a fool at best and a self loathing fascist at worst.

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On 3/26/2019 at 6:54 PM, MalandLee said:

How is that word “democracy” to be interpreted? My idea of it is that the plain, humble, common man, just the ordinary man who keeps a wife and family, who goes off to fight for his country when it is in trouble, goes to the poll at the appropriate time, and puts his cross on the ballot paper showing the candidate he wishes to be elected to Parliament—that he is the foundation of democracy. And it is also essential to this foundation that this man or woman should do this without fear, and without any form of intimidation or victimization. He marks his ballot paper in strict secrecy, and then elected representatives and together decide what government, or even in times of stress, what form of government they wish to have in their country. If that is democracy, I salute it. I espouse it. I would work for it.” — Winston Churchill, House of Commons, 8 December 1944

 

I had hoped this would happen here..... I was so wrong

 

Thais are in no way ready for that to happen here. Churchill was operating from an assumption that he was operating in an environment where rule of law was functioning and that people generally accepted the notion of equality. Remove those preconditions and democracy doesn't work anywhere in the world. Thailand is no exception.

 

Thailand has a long way to go with basic changes to their underlying cultural values before democracy has a chance here. When I see people politely queueing to get on a bus here and respecting others who have been waiting longer, when I see people not forming 3 or 4 turn lanes because they don't want to wait or driving on the shoulder to get around traffic, only then will I say it might be possible to respect others votes.  How anyone can think Thailand is ready for democracy is beyond me. Simple observation indicates that few in Thailand really think others are equal. So why would you think another's vote or opinion is equal to yours?

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