Why Thailand's election results are so murky

[webfact]

Why Thailand's election results are so murky

By Patpicha Tanakasempipat

 

A full ballot box is seen during the general election in Bangkok, Thailand, March 24, 2019. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Two days after an election that was meant to restore democratic rule and stability, Thailand has plunged deeper into uncertainty thanks to a complex parliamentary system that critics say the military junta devised to trip up its rivals.

 

The Election Commission has been accused of incompetence and even complicity in cheating in Sunday's poll, and it might take another six weeks to publish official results for the 500-seat lower house.

 

The commission on Monday announced the winners of 350 seats of the House of Representatives but the remainder will not be announced until May 9.

 

Until then, it will be unclear whether the next government will be formed by the party that wants junta leader and former military chief Prayuth Chan-ocha to stay on as prime minister or the "democratic front" led by the party ousted in a 2014 coup.

 

WHY ARE THE FULL RESULTS TAKING SO LONG?

Partly because of complex election rules written by supporters of the junta three years ago, and partly because the Election Commission has yet to finalise a full count.

 

Most parties in fact estimate their rough share of the seats from partial results and both sides have begun negotiating to put together a coalition on that basis.

 

Prayuth's party probably has enough votes to keep him on as prime minister, but it needs coalition partners in the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, to form a stable government.

 

WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO WIN THE ELECTION?

Officially, the magic number for choosing the next prime minister is 376 votes - a majority of a combined vote between the 500-seat House of Representatives and the 250-seat Senate.

 

But the challenge of getting to 376 votes is different for the two camps.

 

Because the Senate is appointed entirely by the junta, Prayuth's party needs only about 126 House seats, either on its own or with coalition partners.

 

But the "democratic front" of parties led by loyalists of ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra need to win 376 of the 500 House seats to choose the prime minister because it cannot count on many, or even any, Senate votes.

 

CONSTITUENCY SEATS VS PARTY SEATS

Only 350 seats in the House of Representatives are directly elected "constituency seats" where the candidate with the most votes wins the district in a first-past-the-post system.

 

The winners of those seats were announced on Monday.

 

The pro-Thaksin opposition Pheu Thai party won 137 House seats while the pro-junta Palang Pracharat party, which wants to keep Prayuth in power, won 97 seats.

 

The non-aligned Bhumjaithai party, which has officially aligned with neither camp, won 39 seats. The Democrat party, which said it won't side with Pheu Thai, won 33 seats.

 

A new progressive party, Future Forward, won 30 seats. It would be part of an anti-junta democratic front.

 

Other parties won 14 seats.

 

PARTY SEATS

The remaining 150 "party seats" in the lower house are allocated under a complicated formula based on the total number of votes cast and each party's share of the nationwide vote.

 

The formula divides the total number of votes cast nationwide by the 500 seats in the House of Representatives. So, if 40 million people were to vote, the "value" of one House seat would be 80,000 votes.

 

The formula effectively caps the number of seats any one party can gain. If a party has already reached or is close to its limit in constituency seats, it cannot get any more party seats.

 

The exact allocation of party seats won't be known until the Election Commission releases unofficial results, which are expected on Friday. That will show total votes cast and the parties' share of them.

 

However, the definitive numbers won't be released until May 9, when the official results are published. That said, partial results up to 94 percent released on Sunday night offer clues.

 

Because Pheu Thai already has 137 constituency seats, it may well have exceeded its seats "cap" and therefore will be unlikely to get any party seats.

 

But Palang Pracharat has only 97 constituency seats, and since it was also leading the national popular vote, it is likely to gain 15-25 more party seats.

 

Adding the seats together would put Palang Pracharat very close to the 126 seats it needs to vote Prayuth in as prime minister, which is why many assume the junta leader will stay on.

 

SO WHO GETS TO FORM A GOVERNMENT?

Technically either side would need just more than 250 seats, or half of the 500-member lower house, to form the next government.

 

However, the "democratic front" would need 376 seats in the House to first get one of the prime ministerial candidates from its side approved, since it could not rely on members of the junta-appointed Senate to endorse its candidates.

 

Palang Pracharat, assuming all Senate members vote in line, will be close to the 126 seats needed to get Prayuth to stay on. However, it will need coalition partners able to rely on more than 250 seats in the House to form a stable coalition government.

 

(Writing by Kay Johnson. Editing by John Chalmers and Jon Boyle)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-03-26

[arithai12]

14 minutes ago, webfact said:

an election that was meant to restore democratic rule

I don't think that was the purpose.

[steven100]

Get over it and move on ...... 

[klauskunkel]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO WIN THE ELECTION?

couple of tanks

[sjaak327]

In the Original "approved" constitution, the senators getting to vote on the PM was only IF the lower house failed to reach an agreement on the PM. According to this article, that provision has been scrapped, and now the senators get to vote regardless ? Really, which idiot thought that a good idea ? 

 

How is this even remotely connected to democracy, and what idiot thinks that getting enough votes to become PM and then form a government that most likely cannot even count on a majority in the lower house, to be a workable viable option ? The senators might be able to lend a hand in the election of the PM, they cannot lend that same hand for bills to even get to the senate. Without a majority in the lower house, such a government would be a lame duck. 

 

You have to hand it to the militariy, they fail time and time again to draft a constitution that actually works. Maybe just maybe they should leave it to people with brains and relevant experience, not to Meechai, he has proven beyond doubt useless beyond believe. 

[sammieuk1]

Endemic election fraud and a bought out EC springs to mind nothing murky just expected???? 

[Xaos]

[candide]

6 minutes ago, Xaos said:

Thanks! However, translation would be appreciated.

[Cadbury]

Forget all the hypothesising. Prayut will become the elected leader instead of an unelected one and the military generals will remain in power the serve themselves and the filthy rich 1% as they have done for the last 4+ years.

The people now need to strap themselves in for the uncertain ride ahead. Expats can do likewise and can expect the immigration laws to get tougher. Big Joke has already upped the ante.

So all there is left to do is get the vomit bucket ready and wait for the smug victory speech. 

 

[Hayduke]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Why Thailand's election results are so murky

 

Maybe all of those subversive and dangerous foreigners have something to do with it...

 

 

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, sjaak327 said:

How is this even remotely connected to democracy

Consider also that until the new government is "installed¹," the NCPO retains all its authority granted to it by the 2017 Constitution under Section 265 and the 2014 Interim Charter under Article 44. Chief of the NCPO General Prayut has absolute power to decide what new government executive branch members are presented for endorsement that marks the new government's official installation.

That process doesn't reflect representative democracy and potentially disenfranchises the electoral and parliament vote.

 

¹Prime Minster and 33-member Cabinet

[curlylekan]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

an election that was meant to restore democratic rule and stability,

I think more like an election to legitimize the military deeper into politics and legitimize Prayuth as the PM, as if the Thai people ever really had a choice of who would become the next PM

[jackdd]

3 hours ago, candide said:

Thanks! However, translation would be appreciated.

As far as i understand it the rows are about like this:

1. Number of people who were eligable to vote

2. People who voted

3. Number of correctly filled out ballots

4. Number of invalid ballots

5. Number of empty ballots

So if you add the numbers in rows 3 + 4 + 5 this should equal line 2

But adding rows 3 + 4 + 5 results in a much higher number, which means there were way more ballots in the boxes than there should be

 

[Reigntax]

The new parliament may actually teach Prayuth a hard lesson. No more 44 and supported by a minority where the majority have 5 years of frustration to vent against him.

 

It just may end up being his own ending or the very least, a difficult 4 years

[connda]

Well, surprise, surprise.

[jcsmith]

9 hours ago, steven100 said:

Get over it and move on ...... 

Get over yourself.

[Xaos]

Thanks! However, translation would be appreciated.

More ballots then registered voters by hundreds thousands

Wysłane z mojego SM-G975F przy użyciu Tapatalka

[mfd101]

We live in interesting times.

 

In the short term Prayut will govern by decree & ignore as much as he can the facts that (1) he will have little or no control over the lower house and (2) the upper house as farce will be obvious to all.

 

But, down the track, this will mean that he will enjoy no more legitimacy after the election than he did before. Indeed, less in fact, because even his supporters can count & will recognize, at least in private, that he did not win a fair & democratic election.

 

As happens so often in Thailand at the individual level, so socially: The culture of appearances rather than truth & reality means that few problems are ever solved, which builds up a head of steam that eventually causes an explosion of rage & violence. It will only take one idiot military officer to order the troops to fire on a student demo to set the whole land on fire. Once again.

 

[bowerboy]

And the students are all aligned with Future Forward.

 

And students have a long history of fermenting revolt in Thailand.

 

And Future Forward may well be disbanded by the EC on the Juntas orders.

 

Then there will be trouble.

 

Surely the Junta wouldn’t be that stupid would they? Or maybe that is exactly the excuse they are looking for.

[Skeptic7]

What isn't murky here nowadays? Or a scam/silly/stupid/ridiculous/over the top/farce/egregious/overpriced/asinine/foolish/foolhardy? 

[worgeordie]

Elections,murky, well up here in Chiang Mai they can

blame all the smog,if it gets any thicker you will be 

able to eat it,

regards worgeordie

[bronzedude]

On 3/26/2019 at 2:05 PM, sjaak327 said:

In the Original "approved" constitution, the senators getting to vote on the PM was only IF the lower house failed to reach an agreement on the PM. According to this article, that provision has been scrapped, and now the senators get to vote regardless ? Really, which idiot thought that a good idea ? 

 

How is this even remotely connected to democracy, and what idiot thinks that getting enough votes to become PM and then form a government that most likely cannot even count on a majority in the lower house, to be a workable viable option ? The senators might be able to lend a hand in the election of the PM, they cannot lend that same hand for bills to even get to the senate. Without a majority in the lower house, such a government would be a lame duck. 

 

You have to hand it to the militariy, they fail time and time again to draft a constitution that actually works. Maybe just maybe they should leave it to people with brains and relevant experience, not to Meechai, he has proven beyond doubt useless beyond believe. 

This election's results could have been posted when they first announced that there would be an election. What did people expect? This is Thailand and not a first world country. It would take an uber-rich Thai women with the average person's well being at heart to start to make changes toward a real democracy. Otherwise, it's same ol' same ol'.