snoop1130 Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 Why Thailand's election looks headed for deadlock By Patpicha Tanakasempipat and Panarat Thepgumpanat Sudarat Keyuraphan, Pheu Thai Party's prime ministerial candidate, speaks with Phumtam Wechayachai, her party's secretary general, as Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, leader of the Future Forward Party speaks, during a news conference to form a "democratic front" in Bangkok, Thailand, March 27, 2019. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha BANGKOK (Reuters) - A "democratic front" of seven parties said on Wednesday that it had the right to form Thailand's next government because, together, the allies won a majority of lower house of parliament seats in last weekend's inconclusive election. Meanwhile, the pro-military Palang Pracharat party, which wants junta chief and leader of a 2014 coup Prayuth Chan-ocha to stay on as prime minister, has also claimed the right to form a government based on its early lead in the popular vote. In truth, it's not that simple for either side. The fragmented parliament that voters handed them will - instead of the return to democracy that many had hoped the election would deliver - plunge the country into political gridlock and uncertainty. Here is why both sides will struggle to form an effective government to take over after May 9, when final results are announced. MAJORITY MAY NOT MEAN GOVERNMENT The anti-junta alliance led by Pheu Thai, a party linked to self-exiled former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, may well have cobbled together "at least 255 seats" in the 500-strong House of Representatives. The figure is based on announced winners of 350 "constituency seats" directly elected on Sunday and each party's projected "party list" seats drawn from partial results. "Party list" seats are allocated under a complicated formula based on the total number of votes cast and each party's share of the nationwide vote. However, the 255 seats do not give the democratic front the right to elect the prime minister, who will appoint a cabinet of ministers and effectively the next government. That is because of a new parliamentary rule included in a constitution drawn up by the junta three years ago. Critics say the rule was introduced by the military to prevent allies of Thaksin, its populist nemesis, from returning to power and ensure it retains a role in politics. The constitution stipulates that the prime minister needs at least 376 votes - a majority of the House of Representatives' 500 seats and the upper house Senate's 250 seats combined. Because the Senate is appointed entirely by the junta, this will prove difficult for the democratic front, which cannot count on many, if any, Senate votes. To secure the premiership, the alliance needs to have 376 seats, all from the lower house. Without its own prime minister to make the coalition a government, the democratic front would instead become a strong, majority opposition. Meanwhile, Prayuth's party needs only about 126 House seats to vote with the 250 Senate members to make him prime minister and form a new government - albeit a minority one. Palang Pracharat is likely to win around 120 lower house seats on its own. Only two other parties, with about 6 seats combined, have publicly taken its side. Both sides are trying to recruit other unaligned parties, which have combined seats of more than 100. LEGISLATIVE LOGJAMS A Prayuth government may start as a minority, but it would likely to try to woo members from the opposition to switch sides. If it failed to tip the parliamentary scale, his government would struggle to pass any laws. In weeks, it would have to pass the most significant law: the next fiscal year's budget bill. A failure to pass this bill could cripple his government. When the Palang Pracharat-led government proposes the bill to the House, the Pheu Thai-led opposition can, and will likely, effectively reject it. This will create a parliamentary deadlock that renders the government dysfunctional. NO-CONFIDENCE Ultimately, the opposition could table a motion of no-confidence, providing it had enough grounds to back it up. With more than half of the lower house's members, the democratic front could vote to oust Prayuth and his cabinet. The process would then come full circle. Both sides would again try to win the prime ministerial contest and, assured of the Senate vote, the pro-military parties would get it again but still be hamstrung in the lower house. -- © Copyright Reuters 2019-03-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Dude Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 I'll settle for a baht crash...whatever happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 I'm not sure if a dysfunctional government would be worse than the junta.. probably an improvement, at least they wouldn't be able to screw everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisterTee Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Sir Dude said: I'll settle for a baht crash...whatever happens +1... That's the Spirit of '97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justgrazing Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 Only here could they have contrived of such a borrucks up .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowboat Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 10 hours ago, snoop1130 said: A Prayuth government may start as a minority, but it would likely to try to woo members from the opposition to switch sides. If it failed to tip the parliamentary scale, his government would struggle to pass any laws. A refreshing change from the rubber stamp days when the like minded men in green would pass anything cha cha would want with very little debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denim Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, yellowboat said: A refreshing change from the rubber stamp days when the like minded men in green would pass anything cha cha would want with very little debate. Yes, it will need another coup to break the deadlock of this refreshing change. New pretext , to save the country from sliding into anarchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mania Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 Junta stacked the deck 3 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artisi Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, mania said: Junta stacked the deck 3 years ago Unfortunately for the green pretenders, the trump cards seem to be missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAG Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, Artisi said: Unfortunately for the green pretenders, the trump cards seem to be missing. No, they are all in racks in the arms kote. Freshly cleaned and lightly oiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kotsak Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 The outcome is no surprise considering they filled the senate with their cohorts. They had this planned since day one. Elections with a handicap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotchilli Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 11 hours ago, snoop1130 said: That is because of a new parliamentary rule included in a constitution drawn up by the junta three years ago. Speaks volumes free & fair election my arse, whatever the outcome the Junta had it sewn up years ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malagateddy Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 Hopefully..consensus govt will be the way forward..give/take for the benefit of all the Thai people.It must be considered surely?Just look at my home country which currently is an utter shambles re govt..the uk!!!Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazykopite Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 It’s time for the military to return back to barracks and allow the good people of Thailand to get on with there lives sadly this is wishful thinking as I cannot see it happening as the junta will not go easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longcut Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 12 hours ago, DrTuner said: I'm not sure if a dysfunctional government would be worse than the junta.. probably an improvement, at least they wouldn't be able to screw everything up. Wow. With the government shut down. It would be ♫"happy days are here again"♫ At least for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKDfella Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 12 hours ago, DrTuner said: I'm not sure if a dysfunctional government would be worse than the junta.. probably an improvement, at least they wouldn't be able to screw everything up. Being a British expat, I don't think I am allowed much of an opinion what with the Brexit farce and this farce, Ha! ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffbezoz Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 12 hours ago, DrTuner said: I'm not sure if a dysfunctional government would be worse than the junta.. probably an improvement, at least they wouldn't be able to screw everything up. OH I'm not so sure on that one either. The UK currently has a dysfunctional government whose teamwork has depreciated the pound 20% in 2 years or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srikcir Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 13 hours ago, snoop1130 said: The process would then come full circle. Coup once again - but at least under the NCPO's 2017 Constitution it will be legal, no amnesty required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loh Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 The favourite line of junta apologists was that the coup stop civil unrest. It looks like the junta is creating a civil unrest. Over to you junta apologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickudon Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 I'm sure the Junta thought that by capping the number of seats they could ensure that Puea Thai would never get enough seats to beat their party, especially with the Democrats and Suphet parties as potential allies. The rise of Future Forward has upset this apple cart, as Future Forward BENEFITS from the Party list system and gets many extra MPs, Meanwhile the Democrats have collapsed and Suphet is going nowhere. Even if the Junta scrapes through this time, they now face TWO enemies - Puea Thai and Future Forward. I think the next election would be even harder for the Junta to win. The clock is ticking ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chama Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 On 3/27/2019 at 9:50 AM, DrTuner said: I'm not sure if a dysfunctional government would be worse than the junta.. probably an improvement, at least they wouldn't be able to screw everything up. The numbers being provided may not be reflective of the actual support for the junta and the possibility remains that a leadership that has the countries best intentions in mind might be able to garner enough support to actually move forward and make improvements for the Thais and the Kingdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Lawrence Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 At this stage of the election: Ending up with: For the winner: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunderhill Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 On 3/28/2019 at 7:21 AM, mania said: Junta stacked the deck 3 years ago 103 years ago maybe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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