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BANGKOK 21 July 2019 01:25
Scott

SURVEY: Trade Wars -- necessary or not?

SURVEY: Trade Wars -- necessary or not?  

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On 5/21/2019 at 12:55 PM, ExpatOilWorker said:

Since the 4 biggest banks in the world all are in China, we might see the mother of all banking crises in a few years.

My reading of those four banks indicates they are operating more like western banks 40-50 yrs ago. They are not heavily invested in derivatives or sub-prime loans... Not anywhere near the risk-level of some US institutions.

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On 5/21/2019 at 12:24 AM, usviphotography said:

The problem is that by "allies" they mean the usual crop of Western European countries run by Neoliberal Globalists who are the very reason the current unfair trade agreements exist in the first place. You aren't going to accomplish anything by working with the Swamp. Trump has proven that more than anyone as any issue that he "worked with" the Establishment on was promptly sabotaged and subverted. Trade would have been no different. This is a policy issue where you needed somebody to just dive in and start brawling. 

Wow, a post packed with understanding, subtlety and nuance. 

 

Neoliberal globalists AND conservative corporatists are BOTH driving the forces which benefit China. Thy both have the same (swampy) funding.

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5 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The $3 trillion China hold in foreign reserves is not a weapon, it is a lifevest for China. They need it to maintain their 10.92% inclusion in the IMF special drawing rights basket of currencies. 

Whenever you see China is reducing their foreign reserves, like they did in 2015 when it dropped from $4 to $3 trillion, it is because ordinary Chinese and companies are pulling money out of China, which the central government is doing everything in their power to stop.

 

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/09/30/AM16-PR16440-IMF-Launches-New-SDR-Basket-Including-Chinese-Renminbi

Chinese reserve are a lifevest for the Chinese but not because of Special Drawing Rights. SDR's used to be important before floating exchange rates. Not really now. It's dubious that China cares all that much about it or that its actions are governed by whether or not its currency is included as a percentage of SDR's. 

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No more rare earths for you America. Trump well on his way to his 5th bankruptcy. Outdone himself this time taking down a whole country.

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On 5/21/2019 at 12:24 AM, usviphotography said:

The problem is that by "allies" they mean the usual crop of Western European countries run by Neoliberal Globalists who are the very reason the current unfair trade agreements exist in the first place. You aren't going to accomplish anything by working with the Swamp. Trump has proven that more than anyone as any issue that he "worked with" the Establishment on was promptly sabotaged and subverted. Trade would have been no different. This is a policy issue where you needed somebody to just dive in and start brawling. 

“Neoliberal Globalist”

Is this the definition: A person with assets and liabilities in various currencies, business interests around the world, products designed and sold in one country while manufactured in other countries, someone who supported invasive wars and called for the seizure of others’ resources?

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Posted (edited)

it was not a trade war anymore than a better border wall is about "Mexican Rapists" and "jobs" is either. 

it is ***called*** a trade war.  it is more like a 5G war.  

but what it really is racism.   and money money money.

the USA will lose.  TSMC is shipping again.  End of Story.

sorry Steve Bannon. oh so so sorry.  not.

Edited by WeekendRaider

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16 hours ago, mikebike said:

My reading of those four banks indicates they are operating more like western banks 40-50 yrs ago. They are not heavily invested in derivatives or sub-prime loans... Not anywhere near the risk-level of some US institutions.

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 

What's wrong with a tax on consumers? Clearly consumers are not now paying the "full price" for the goods they buy from places like China. They are not paying for the environmental degradation, the rapid acceleration in climate change brought on by irresponsible manufacturing processes; they're not paying for the human rights abuses that implicitly support with their consumer spending. Taxation is one of the best ways I know of to curb dangerous practices. It has worked for the most part with tobacco, why wouldn't it work to curb the purchase of products that cause other harmful affects?

But why apply that only to China? And as has been shown, voters aren't really keen even on a carbon tax.

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12 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

But why apply that only to China? And as has been shown, voters aren't really keen even on a carbon tax.

 

I would not apply it only to China. I'd also apply to petrochemicals, wich cost xx.xx per barrel, plus 30% of our defense budget and X many lives, and X many limbs of damaged persons whose families we we will be supporting forever. 

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4 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

I would not apply it only to China. I'd also apply to petrochemicals, wich cost xx.xx per barrel, plus 30% of our defense budget and X many lives, and X many limbs of damaged persons whose families we we will be supporting forever. 

It's a great idea to make polluters pay for what economists call "externalities" but politically it's a no-go. Which is a shame.

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17 hours ago, mikebike said:

My reading of those four banks indicates they are operating more like western banks 40-50 yrs ago. They are not heavily invested in derivatives or sub-prime loans... Not anywhere near the risk-level of some US institutions.

Each of the 4 state banks are about $3 trillion in size, 60 times bigger than the 2010 Dodd-Frank "too big to fail" threshold. (Revised from $50 to $250 billion in 2018).

Anyhow, the Chinese state banks have been pumping money in state project like these:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/10/business/china-economy-debt-tianjin.html

 

Why? Because of connections:

 

That official, He Lifeng, was once the No. 2 Communist Party official in Tianjin. Mr. He now heads the central government agency that approves all major development projects, meaning he can authorize banks to lend more money to Tianjin.

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10 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Each of the 4 state banks are about $3 trillion in size, 60 times bigger than the 2010 Dodd-Frank "too big to fail" threshold. (Revised from $50 to $250 billion in 2018).

Anyhow, the Chinese state banks have been pumping money in state project like these:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/10/business/china-economy-debt-tianjin.html

 

Why? Because of connections:

 

That official, He Lifeng, was once the No. 2 Communist Party official in Tianjin. Mr. He now heads the central government agency that approves all major development projects, meaning he can authorize banks to lend more money to Tianjin.

Yes. The efficiency of returns on Chinese investment has become dismal with the rise of Xi.

https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/china/04061801.html

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1 hour ago, bristolboy said:

It's a great idea to make polluters pay for what economists call "externalities" but politically it's a no-go. Which is a shame.

It's not going to happen unless there's a general boost in mindfullness and an understanding of the interconnectedness of all things. That's not going to happen in cultures like the US's anytime soon.

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