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Thai exports for April fall to the lowest level in 24 months


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Thai exports for April fall to the lowest level in 24 months

 

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Thailand’s exports in April fell 2.57% to US$18.5 billion – the lowest since May 2017. 

 

The fall is being blamed on the intensifying trade war between the United States and China, according to Ms. Pimchanok Wornkhorporn, Director of the trade policy and strategy office at the Ministry of Commerce.

 

Imports in April also dropped by 0.72% to about US$20 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of about US$1.5 billion, she said, adding that Thailand’s total exports for the first four months of this year amounted to US$80.5 billion, representing a 1.86% contraction compared to imports of U$79.9 billion, a  1.08% drop.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-exports-for-april-fall-to-the-lowest-level-in-24-months/

 

 

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-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2019-05-23
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1 hour ago, fishtank said:

And the baht will still rise.

That's only part of it. The EU removed Thailands GSP a few years ago on product categories such as Chicken & Shrimp making them far too expensive. Many retailers have spent the past few years switching their sourcing to the EU for chicken and Vietnam for shrimp. The Thais were a little arrogant in their thinking in that they thought the US would pick up the slack which they did but not as much as they needed. The US switched to India and domestic supplier.

 

 

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12 hours ago, bangkokequity said:

The THB is getting WEAKER ... not "increasing its value"

Before you "LMAO" ... can you and Chelseafan please get a clue?

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/THB%3DX

I believe there was sarcasm in that statement, but speaking of having a clue..... Your attachment indicates that the baht is sitting in the middle of a 52 week range.... hardly evidence of a drop within the cycle, more like steady. 

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Good time for spin doctors, I think they're lacking a bit though, I've seen at least two news like this without their obligatory tourism on increase/we're alright jack/thailand numba one counterpart. At least throw an honest cabbie in there. 

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3 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

That's only part of it. The EU removed Thailands GSP a few years ago on product categories such as Chicken & Shrimp making them far too expensive. Many retailers have spent the past few years switching their sourcing to the EU for chicken and Vietnam for shrimp. The Thais were a little arrogant in their thinking in that they thought the US would pick up the slack which they did but not as much as they needed. The US switched to India and domestic supplier.

Why would US/EU/OZ/other westies pick up anything if you side with China. Somnamnaa.

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2 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

That's only part of it. The EU removed Thailands GSP a few years ago on product categories such as Chicken & Shrimp making them far too expensive. Many retailers have spent the past few years switching their sourcing to the EU for chicken and Vietnam for shrimp. The Thais were a little arrogant in their thinking in that they thought the US would pick up the slack which they did but not as much as they needed. The US switched to India and domestic supplier.

 

 

To make matters worse the EU has just signed a free trade agreement with Vietnam. Something they will hardly do with Thailand given their human rights violations. 

Things are going downhill for Thailand and PM Prayut and the junta are to blame.

 

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17 minutes ago, Curmudgeon1 said:

I believe there was sarcasm in that statement, but speaking of having a clue..... Your attachment indicates that the baht is sitting in the middle of a 52 week range.... hardly evidence of a drop within the cycle, more like steady. 

Dude, take a chill pill, I see no sarcasm here ... and all I am saying is before we talk about currency, can we please understand that "going up in value" is the exact opposite of what is happening ... or should be expected by the thesis of this article, which is exports and the economy are slowing.  Signing off, I do not need to debate the absolute BASICS with you and your "expert" Thai Visa friends.

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7 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

To make matters worse the EU has just signed a free trade agreement with Vietnam.

Did they already sign?

 

Here's some info on that one: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-vietnam-fta

 

EDIT: That would have a real benefit for expats: EU grade goods available at reasonable prices. A huge plus.

 

EDIT2: Not a done deal yet:

 

Quote

Position of the European Parliament

The EP resolution of 17 December 2015 welcomes the conclusion of negotiations on the FTA, but expresses serious concerns about the human rights situation in Vietnam. Those concerns were reiterated in a September 2018 letter sent by a cross-party group of 32 MEPs to EU trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström and EU High Representative Federica Mogherini, urging them to insist on improvements to the human rights situation in Vietnam, including implementation of ILO core conventions and the release of certain political prisoners, before the FTA can be ratified. At an October 2018 hearing organised by the EP's International Trade Committee (INTA), representatives of the Vietnamese government explained that Hanoi has an action plan to ratify the three remaining ILO core conventions, and to this end is currently working on a comprehensive overhaul of its Labour Code, expected to be adopted by October 2019; on the other hand, there are no signs that political repression is easing, as arrests and sentencing of activists continue. It remains to be seen how these developments will influence the European Parliament's position; some MEPs have called for the European Parliament to approve the FTA/IPA as soon as possible, but human rights concerns could result in the Parliament delaying or even withholding its consent.

In other words, Vietnam needs to get rid of the commies first.

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5 hours ago, webfact said:

The fall is being blamed on the intensifying trade war between the United States and China, according to Ms. Pimchanok Wornkhorporn, Director of the trade policy and strategy office at the Ministry of Commerce.

always easy to blame somebody else.... BTW a couple weeks ago they were all smiles anticipating exports increase to EU and US to cover lack of Chinese products

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5 hours ago, fishtank said:

And the baht will still rise.

Baht still rise because of the tourists and foreign retires who bring dollars but buy very less imported items. They subsidize the informal economy (like street vendors) and think doing a favor to the economy where as they are in fact destroying the export economy of Thailand and perpetuating informal economy that does not pay taxes. 

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1 hour ago, bangkokequity said:

The THB is getting WEAKER ... not "increasing its value"

Before you "LMAO" ... can you and Chelseafan please get a clue?

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/THB%3DX

What on earth are you on about ? I have fair knowledge in this area as I used to import over $70m from Thailand. I think I have already made my point unless you want to contradict me with fact rather than insult.

 

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2 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

What on earth are you on about ? I have fair knowledge in this area as I used to import over $70m from Thailand. I think I have already made my point unless you want to contradict me with fact rather than insult.

 

Fair enough ... perhaps you were joking?

Please answer this one question so we are clear.

Is the Thai Baht "increasing in value?"

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I would imagine the strong Thai baht makes some goods more expensive to purchase than from other SE Asian countries that are selling the same product and things will not improve with this “tariff war” between the USA & China. 

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1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Did they already sign?

 

Here's some info on that one: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-vietnam-fta

 

EDIT: That would have a real benefit for expats: EU grade goods available at reasonable prices. A huge plus.

 

EDIT2: Not a done deal yet:

 

In other words, Vietnam needs to get rid of the commies first.

I've been keeping an eye on this over the past few years. The last I heard was that it was still going ahead despite the pressure by Human Rights quangos. No date set in stone yet though.

 

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1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Did they already sign?

 

Here's some info on that one: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-vietnam-fta

 

EDIT: That would have a real benefit for expats: EU grade goods available at reasonable prices. A huge plus.

 

EDIT2: Not a done deal yet:

 

In other words, Vietnam needs to get rid of the commies first.

Having a FTA with Thailand hasn't made goods from Australia cheaper. Since I've lived here the dollar has gone from 31 to 22 Baht and Oz goods have never dropped in price, but gone up. The FTA was over 10 years ago. Thailand just cheats. I've just accepted it. 

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25 minutes ago, bangkokequity said:

Fair enough ... perhaps you were joking?

Please answer this one question so we are clear.

Is the Thai Baht "increasing in value?"

Well firstly that has little to do with what I said and the article is about how exports are falling. I gave one of a myriad reasons why exports are declining. One of the other issues is of course rice exports but that's another story.

 

Is the baht declining in value ? Value against what ? For the average Thai, I would guess yes as what they could buy for 10 baht a few years ago now costs 15-20 baht but on the other hand, a LCD TV costing 20,000 5 years ago now costs 15,000 as technology and mass production has improved.

 

For a tourist, yes,  certainly over the past 10 years as their buying power has diminished in terms of fx.

 

For exports, hard to say as most business is done in US dollars but there are other factors involved such as freight, duty, quotas, availability, competition, margins etc which are all factored into final cost price but COG have certainly increased in my experience.

 

On the whole I would say that the Thai Baht is decreasing in value but improving in FX terms against other currencies.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, lahgon29 said:

Having a FTA with Thailand hasn't made goods from Australia cheaper. Since I've lived here the dollar has gone from 31 to 22 Baht and Oz goods have never dropped in price, but gone up. The FTA was over 10 years ago. Thailand just cheats. I've just accepted it. 

The FTA only affects the cost of goods (COG), other factors may have risen in the meantime, transport, duty, local taxes, local wages and also are the retailers passing on the cost benefits or taking as additional margin?

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27 minutes ago, toenail said:

I would imagine the strong Thai baht makes some goods more expensive to purchase than from other SE Asian countries that are selling the same product and things will not improve with this “tariff war” between the USA & China. 

Possibly, but remember the EU (and I can only talk about this as I have some knowledge) have removed GSP on most Thai goods. In affect this acts like a duty discount. For example cooked shrimp from Thailand and Vietnam until a couple of years ago attracted a duty rate of 7%. With the GSP removed on Thai goods this has sent the duty rocketing to 20% whilst Vietnam remains at 7% and possibly 0% when a FTA comes into play.

 

Just think. The same prawn bought from Thailand will be at least 20% more expensive than the SAME item from Vietnam. If you are a retailer what do you do ? You move your sourcing from Thailand to Vietnam.

 

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1 minute ago, Chelseafan said:

Well firstly that has little to do with what I said and the article is about how exports are falling. I gave one of a myriad reasons why exports are declining. One of the other issues is of course rice exports but that's another story.

 

Is the baht declining in value ? Value against what ? For the average Thai, I would guess yes as what they could buy for 10 baht a few years ago now costs 15-20 baht but on the other hand, a LCD TV costing 20,000 5 years ago now costs 15,000 as technology and mass production has improved.

 

For a tourist, yes,  certainly over the past 10 years as their buying power has diminished in terms of fx.

 

For exports, hard to say as most business is done in US dollars but there are other factors involved such as freight, duty, quotas, availability, competition, margins etc which are all factored into final cost price but COG have certainly increased in my experience.

 

On the whole I would say that the Thai Baht is decreasing in value but improving in FX terms against other currencies.

 

 

Thank you for your explanation of inflation (more money chasing similar goods) and the advance of technology verses cost.

In the end you write that in your opinion the THB is 'improving in FX terms against other currencies" I am not going to debate REALITY with you ... since this was all started by my per peeve, people who think that when the THB goes from 31 / $ to 32 / $ ... it is "increasing in value!  555!  You CAN'T make this stuff up!  
 

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1 minute ago, bangkokequity said:

Thank you for your explanation of inflation (more money chasing similar goods) and the advance of technology verses cost.

In the end you write that in your opinion the THB is 'improving in FX terms against other currencies" I am not going to debate REALITY with you ... since this was all started by my per peeve, people who think that when the THB goes from 31 / $ to 32 / $ ... it is "increasing in value!  555!  You CAN'T make this stuff up!  
 

That's what I said! But in terms of exports that's only PART of the equation!

 

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Just now, EricTh said:

China is Thailand's largest trade partner and also its biggest tourist spenders.

 

With China's economy affected by Trump's policies, Thailand economy will also falter.

 

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-import-partners/

I'm not sure, you may be right but if I was China, I would be looking to import and export to countries OTHER than the US. This may benefit Thailand. Too early to say

 

Also if I was Thailand I wouldn't rely on Chinese tourism for too long. They get fickle and will probably move onto other countries.

 

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28 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

That's what I said! But in terms of exports that's only PART of the equation!

 

For the last time, when the THB goes from 31 baht to the USD, to 32 THB to the USD, do you believe it is "increasing in value?"  Are you a Trump speech writer?  Can't you just answer a simple question?

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