British PM May resigns, paving way for Brexit confrontation with EU

[stephenterry]

13 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

You've misunderstood the meaning of a 'WTO' Brexit. The WTO rules would only be the default and base position when we leave. The starting point. From there we will make new trading arrangements with other nations. That process has already begun. There is no intention to trade under WTO terms alone! 

 

There is also Article 24 which would allow us to keep existing trade arrangements in place with the EU for at least 2 years and up to 10 years while we sort everything out. 

So what's the point in leaving the Customs Union? Isn't existing trade agreements with the EU countries and over 50 other countries including Japan and S Korea outside the EU, sufficient? Just look at your supermarket shelves, and high street shops, full of goods from around the world, all because we're in the EU. 

[stephenterry]

9 hours ago, bartender100 said:

I am fine with a deal, but not the one written by the EU and given to May to shove down our throats, remaining for the time being would be better than that

 

 

I doubt that anyone on here has actually read the WAG, so to give an opinion based on media reports gained from polarised MPs is just hearsay and speculation. And yes I agree, remaining would be the best option, full-time.

[dick dasterdly]

6 hours ago, AlexRich said:

 

I think we might see that referendum before we leave. If Boris Johnson becomes leader nothing really changes in parliament. If he wants to go for a "no deal" exit there will be a vote of no confidence in his Government (called by the Labour Party) and some of his fellow Conservatives will vote against him. That would mean a General Election, and with the new Brexit Party stealing traditional Tory votes he knows he will lose. His only real option will be to re-run the vote based on remain vs no deal exit. I think he'll take that gamble. 

I too think that it is more than likely that MPs will decide to gamble on another referendum.

 

What other choice do they have?

 

They know that revoking article 50 is likely to be political suicide at the next GE/they're not prepared to support leaving with no deal/the eu has said that it is not prepared to move on the laughable May/eu 'deal'.

[malagateddy]

Yeah, she doesn't have much in common with One Nation Tories ( but she has much in common with the Right of the party).

Sent from my SM-G930F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

My Ozzy mates think she's on the right lines[emoji6]

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[stephenterry]

11 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

I too think that it is more than likely that MPs will decide to gamble on another referendum.

 

What other choice do they have?

 

They know that revoking article 50 is likely to be political suicide at the next GE/they're not prepared to support leaving with no deal/the eu has said that it is not prepared to move on the laughable May/eu 'deal'.

I don't agree. I think it is far more likely that Corbyn would wake up and force through a no confidence vote in the government, as soon as a new PM is elected - as he has already stated. And if he succeeds parliament would be dissolved, and a GE would be the outcome. If that's the case, a peoples vote would determine what party manifesto wins, and that would be that. 

[AlexRich]

3 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

I too think that it is more than likely that MPs will decide to gamble on another referendum.

 

What other choice do they have?

 

They know that revoking article 50 is likely to be political suicide at the next GE/they're not prepared to support leaving with no deal/the eu has said that it is not prepared to move on the laughable May/eu 'deal'.

 

Well thank you, something we agree on! I didn't say that to wind up leavers, though it might. 

 

I can't see a path to "no deal" that doesn't involve a vote of some kind.

 

 

 

[AlexRich]

3 hours ago, stephenterry said:

I don't agree. I think it is far more likely that Corbyn would wake up and force through a no confidence vote in the government, as soon as a new PM is elected - as he has already stated. And if he succeeds parliament would be dissolved, and a GE would be the outcome. If that's the case, a peoples vote would determine what party manifesto wins, and that would be that. 

 

The thing is that Corbyn needs Tory rebels for that to happen, and many of them are as reluctant to go into a GE than Johnson would be (presuming he wins). I think initially Johnson will try to broker some kind of agreement with the EU, but will fail. He'll then announce that he's going for "no deal" or "managed deal" ... or some other term that means chaos ... and that is when members of his own party will cross the line. Corbyn would then call for a vote of no confidence. To avoid this Johnson might just gamble with a referendum. He might think he can win that and then keep power.

 

 

[dick dasterdly]

20 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

Well thank you, something we agree on! I didn't say that to wind up leavers, though it might. 

 

I can't see a path to "no deal" that doesn't involve a vote of some kind.

 

 

 

I agree.

 

MPs are mostly remainers - so their only possible hope is that another referendum may possibly give them the result for which they are looking...

[Basil B]

Why not be done with Trexit instead of Brexit???

[david555]

I think by Halloween the " crying May face mask" will be on the top buying list by remainders  & leavers both   

[Basil B]

19 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

The thing is that Corbyn needs Tory rebels for that to happen,

Not necessarily, mathematically if every other party where to vote with Corbyn on a NCV he would win, but I think there would be a lot of abstainers in his own party who would really make the result unpredictable. 

[Monomial]

35 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

The thing is that Corbyn needs Tory rebels for that to happen, and many of them are as reluctant to go into a GE than Johnson would be (presuming he wins). I think initially Johnson will try to broker some kind of agreement with the EU, but will fail. He'll then announce that he's going for "no deal" or "managed deal" ... or some other term that means chaos ... and that is when members of his own party will cross the line. Corbyn would then call for a vote of no confidence. To avoid this Johnson might just gamble with a referendum. He might think he can win that and then keep power.

 

 

 

What would losing a no confidence require in terms of numbers? Assuming the Brexit party and the Tories form a coalition to keep the government in power, how many Tory defectors would be required to flip a no confidence vote?  Forgive me because I don't know the specific composition of the legislature, so it is hard to estimate the likelihood of any particular outcome.

 

Seems to me that the Tory party was beaten handily by Brexit in the recent EU election, which would seem to be a proxy for what could happen in a General election. Tory MPs may not be so quick to cross the line, given that they have a real fear being voted out by a Brexit competitor, their personal preferences not withstanding.

 

So ultimately crossing the line comes down to the specific voter composition of their district. Which then begs the question of how many would need to vote against their own party in order to flip the scale, and is this number reasonable given the circumstances?

 

 

[adammike]

4 hours ago, stephenterry said:

I don't agree. I think it is far more likely that Corbyn would wake up and force through a no confidence vote in the government, as soon as a new PM is elected - as he has already stated. And if he succeeds parliament would be dissolved, and a GE would be the outcome. If that's the case, a peoples vote would determine what party manifesto wins, and that would be that. 

If the Brexit party becomes a player and the Lib-dems have a revival because the electorate see them as the only real pro EU party a General election may throw up coalitions as the only way governments can be formed!

It's not a given that the Tory's and labour will be the winners in any election.

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, Basil B said:

Not necessarily, mathematically if every other party where to vote with Corbyn on a NCV he would win, but I think there would be a lot of abstainers in his own party who would really make the result unpredictable. 

I doubt the DUP would vote with IRA sympathiser Corbyn, though stranger things have happened. But they are unlikely to join him in stopping a no deal exit.

[Basil B]

16 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

I doubt the DUP would vote with IRA sympathiser Corbyn, though stranger things have happened. But they are unlikely to join him in stopping a no deal exit.

I think the DUP will be more interested in stopping a Brexit that will create a hard border.

 

They have voted against TM's deal for that very reason.

[Basil B]

1 hour ago, adammike said:

If the Brexit party becomes a player and the Lib-dems have a revival because the electorate see them as the only real pro EU party a General election may throw up coalitions as the only way governments can be formed!

It's not a given that the Tory's and labour will be the winners in any election.

I am waiting with interest as to the EU election results that will be announced tonight (03:00am Bangkok time).

And the Cambridge By-Election on Thursday. 

 

We may well see the much needed change to the stagnant 2 party system. 

[teatree]

6 hours ago, stephenterry said:

So what's the point in leaving the Customs Union? Isn't existing trade agreements with the EU countries and over 50 other countries including Japan and S Korea outside the EU, sufficient? Just look at your supermarket shelves, and high street shops, full of goods from around the world, all because we're in the EU. 

Because the EU is a protectionist bloc that puts high tariffs on products that compete with EU producers.  Outside the CU the UK could set tariffs at whatever level was in the interests of Britain and not those of an EU based producer.

[Loiner]

39 minutes ago, Basil B said:

I am waiting with interest as to the EU election results that will be announced tonight (03:00am Bangkok time).

And the Cambridge By-Election on Thursday. 

 

We may well see the much needed change to the stagnant 2 party system. 

The Cambridge By election could prove to be a decider in the next round of commons voting, with out even going to confidence motions or GE. The last 'No Deal' vote was only won by a single vote, when Remain wheeled in that lying lawyer jailbird and a Tory got stuck on a train somewhere.  When the Brexit Party candidate wins Peterborough on 6th June there's one less LAB MP and a new Leaver in the commons. When Boris brings some leadership to the CON party the impasse in the commons could easily swing towards Leave No Deal. 

[evadgib]

38 minutes ago, Loiner said:

The Cambridge By election could prove to be a decider in the next round of commons voting, with out even going to confidence motions or GE. The last 'No Deal' vote was only won by a single vote, when Remain wheeled in that lying lawyer jailbird and a Tory got stuck on a train somewhere.  When the Brexit Party candidate wins Peterborough on 6th June there's one less LAB MP and a new Leaver in the commons. When Boris brings some leadership to the CON party the impasse in the commons could easily swing towards Leave No Deal. 

Peterborough By Election 06 June 2019

[tebee]

53 minutes ago, Loiner said:

The Cambridge By election could prove to be a decider in the next round of commons voting, with out even going to confidence motions or GE. The last 'No Deal' vote was only won by a single vote, when Remain wheeled in that lying lawyer jailbird and a Tory got stuck on a train somewhere.  When the Brexit Party candidate wins Peterborough on 6th June there's one less LAB MP and a new Leaver in the commons. When Boris brings some leadership to the CON party the impasse in the commons could easily swing towards Leave No Deal. 

What exactly are you on ? No deal was defeated by 400-160 votes 

 

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/indicative-votes-2-0-where-did-support-lie/

[Basil B]

11 minutes ago, tebee said:

What exactly are you on ? No deal was defeated by 400-160 votes 

 

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/indicative-votes-2-0-where-did-support-lie/

He will have quite a headache when he falls down to Earth...

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, Loiner said:

The Cambridge By election could prove to be a decider in the next round of commons voting, with out even going to confidence motions or GE. The last 'No Deal' vote was only won by a single vote, when Remain wheeled in that lying lawyer jailbird and a Tory got stuck on a train somewhere.  When the Brexit Party candidate wins Peterborough on 6th June there's one less LAB MP and a new Leaver in the commons. When Boris brings some leadership to the CON party the impasse in the commons could easily swing towards Leave No Deal. 

 

LBJ said the first rule of politics was being able to count.

[Loiner]

30 minutes ago, tebee said:

What exactly are you on ? No deal was defeated by 400-160 votes 

 

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/indicative-votes-2-0-where-did-support-lie/

You're looking in all the wrong places. They were only the infamous indicative votes.

 

I stand corrected on the Amendment A vote - which was not 1 vote, it was a majority of just 4 (312 - 308) for No Deal. And even that is non-binding, under current law the UK could still leave without a deal, unless one is ratified by parliament.

[CG1 Blue]

4 hours ago, Monomial said:

 

What would losing a no confidence require in terms of numbers? Assuming the Brexit party and the Tories form a coalition to keep the government in power, how many Tory defectors would be required to flip a no confidence vote?  Forgive me because I don't know the specific composition of the legislature, so it is hard to estimate the likelihood of any particular outcome.

 

Seems to me that the Tory party was beaten handily by Brexit in the recent EU election, which would seem to be a proxy for what could happen in a General election. Tory MPs may not be so quick to cross the line, given that they have a real fear being voted out by a Brexit competitor, their personal preferences not withstanding.

 

So ultimately crossing the line comes down to the specific voter composition of their district. Which then begs the question of how many would need to vote against their own party in order to flip the scale, and is this number reasonable given the circumstances?

 

 

For the confidence vote it would be on a knife edge. Dominic Grieve has already stated he'll vote against the government in a NCV if it means avoiding no deal. The DUP position is difficult to judge. They hated the EU's withdrawal agreement and voted against it every time. How much do they value having an element of power under the existing confidence and supply arrangements - enough for them to vote for keeping the Tories in power? 

We should also not forget there may be some passionate leavers among the other parties, particularly Labour who might abstain or even vote in favour of the government. 

 

But if they do manage to force a GE, then the Brexit Party would very much come into play. The two main parties would haemorrhage votes to the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems. Then it depends on which of them gets the highest amount of seats, and can form a government in coalition.

 

The Tories in coalition with Farage? Stranger things have happened! 

[Thairealist]

 

 So what does extremist left winger Owen Jones of the Guardian make of 

Brexit supporters?

 

 

[elliss]

9 hours ago, stephenterry said:

I don't agree. I think it is far more likely that Corbyn would wake up and force through a 

     

     Corbyn  would need to be constipated, to try and force anything through .

    He wont be labour leader much longer,if he ever was a leader.

Enter Keir,  a good socialist name , soon to be Prime Minister..

 

 

[nauseus]

9 minutes ago, Thairealist said:

 

 So what does extremist left winger Owen Jones of the Guardian make of 

Brexit supporters?

 

 

We're not interested in your dribble! Love it!

[nauseus]

3 minutes ago, elliss said:

     

     Corbyn  would need to be constipated, to try and force anything through .

    He wont be labour leader much longer,if he ever was a leader.

Enter Keir,  a good socialist name , soon to be Prime Minister..

 

 

Constipation generally makes forcing things through a lot tougher. ????

[tebee]

2 hours ago, Loiner said:

You're looking in all the wrong places. They were only the infamous indicative votes.

 

I stand corrected on the Amendment A vote - which was not 1 vote, it was a majority of just 4 (312 - 308) for No Deal. And even that is non-binding, under current law the UK could still leave without a deal, unless one is ratified by parliament.

That was the customs union vote wasn't it ?

[elliss]

2 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

 

 

The Tories in coalition with Farage? Stranger things have happened! 

 

 What do both these parties  have in common, apart from etc..