Jump to content
BANGKOK 21 July 2019 03:42

Recommended Posts

According to the NYT, there are plans by both Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump’s government to devalue the US dollar by about 30% over the next three years.  By my calculations, one US dollar would then be worth 21 - 22 baht.  If the Thai exchange rate does not accommodate the new value of the dollar, life for we American expats could become 30% more expensive.  What are the opinions of TV posters regarding this insidious danger?  The relevant article is in Today’s New York Times.  I’ll be happy to provide a link but it can just be Googled for in the Opinion Section under the title “A Radical Plan to Fix the Dollar.”

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kind of ha ha time for those who worried about putting money in a Thai bank eh?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spare are a thought for the British who have already seen an exchange rate drop of 26% since the Brexit referendum 3 years ago and we're still in the EU.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thai baht isn't pegged to the US$ so in theory it shouldn't effect other exchange rates against the baht but...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Being that this is somewhat finance related...all I can say is...from my experience, you will make more money betting against what the NYTimes says than placing any value on what they say.

 

from 2005-2007, they were pimping real estate with constant “it’s a great time to buy”.   I sold.

 

From 2007-2008 it was stocks.

 

Always question the source and with the NYTimes especially, ask yourself...

 

“What is it that they aren’t telling me?”

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My opinion is there has always been news articles forecasting the dollar going south (and going north).  Seems all the crystal balls and Ouija boards used by reporters and currency traders give different predictions.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

unfortunate optimism of the trump being around in 3 years time, was hoping the old <deleted> would have a heart attack soon.

 

but long term trend dollar appreciates

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, manchega said:

unfortunate optimism of the trump being around in 3 years time, was hoping the old <deleted> would have a heart attack soon.

 

....sigh!

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is old news- it has been predicted by various economists that the US Dollar-Thai Baht exchange level will settle around 28-29 to the Dollar.

 

Other currencies will show a 20% decline depending on actions that are taken.  The US and China are in a war of economies.  There are plenty of steps the US can still take to include  raising tariffs on all Chinese products; cutting China out from buying US Treasuries and funding Us Debt; and establishing a US balanced budget.

 

In regard to Thailand- I don't see much change this year as the Thai export market is sliding; the Prayut Government is unstable; and if  tourism declines there will be less foreign currency entering.  Thailand will intervene in the currency markets to keep the rates stable.

 

Trump will not be re-elected but if he was - he will be beholden to Wall Street and their minions will control US monetary Policy.  Elizabeth Warren will not win the nomination. Biden will and he won't  change much as far as economic policy except  get rid of Trump's tax give away.

 

As far as Thai banks- I wouldn't put any money in them if I didn't have to.  They have a history of manipulation; lack of security and over control by the Government in power.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you expect this to happen then you would surely send all your money to Thailand.....

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wanting a weaker dollar is one thing  but doing it is another matter, and outside of the Presidents power. There is blowback, and the U.S Fed is independent of any President.  A lot of the echo chamber on this is by Chinese sources which seem to be overstating Executive power in this regard. Hard to say where its going long term. Short term, a rate cut is in the air, creating some downward pressure on the dollar.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ukrules said:

If you expect this to happen then you would surely send all your money to Thailand.....

 

I did in 2005.  Although there is no way Trump can effect the value of the dollar up or down.  

Edited by marcusarelus
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, WalkingOrders said:

Wanting a weaker dollar is one thing  but doing it is another matter, and outside of the Presidents power. There is blowback, and the U.S Fed is independent of any President.  A lot of the echo chamber on this is by Chinese sources which seem to be overstating Executive power in this regard. Hard to say where its going long term. Short term, a rate cut is in the air, creating some downward pressure on the dollar.

Agree.  If the US were to artificially devalue its currency somehow, other countries can simply follow suit.  Then they'd be back to square one.  Better to let the free market decide. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Berkshire said:

Better to let the free market decide.

I didn't realise the Baht is on the free market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...