Thoughts on Koh Samui, tourism, and the future

[Samui Bodoh]

Please note that this thread is written for Koh Samui residents and/or long-stayers of the island. If you are in Phuket or Pattaya or Hua Hin or Bangkok or Chang Mai, etc and want to comment, perhaps you might comment in your respective local forums? Much obliged!

 

Hello Samui-ites! (Hmm... Samuians? Samuinese? Samui-Dudes&Dudettes?)

 

This is a follow-up posting to a thread I started on Xmas eve when things seemed very quiet; I did promise to return to it after Songkran, but island life... I have often said that if you are in a hurry on Samui, then you are doing it wrong. The thread I started previously focused (wrongly) on the lack of people around on Christmas Eve (everyone seemed to show up later that very afternoon), and it made me wonder what things were actually like and what is the future on the island. I also asked because I felt then, and still strongly feel now, that observations by people who live here and/or stay long periods are a truly great way to gather information; remember the adage that the plural of anecdote is data.

 

My observations, in no special or particular order since New Years, are as follows...

 

• There seems to be fewer visitors to the island. Yes, I am sure that KP and Mr T will be along shortly to tell me that I am incorrect (and I won't be arguing with them), but that is what I have seen. Hmm... I should note that I hang mostly on the North Coast, rarely go to Cheweng except on the occasional morning, and haven't been to Lamai and/or the South for a while. The simple number of people that I saw over the last 6 months or so seems lower than in past years, significantly lower. 
• The number of motorcycles un-rented seemed much higher this year; I started paying attention to them as I drove about, and this year there were always more on display than I remember. 
• A friend of mine who is a banker for local, Western People-orientated business matters/shops, is quite unhappy these days.
• I shop, for supermarket purposes, at either Tesco or Big C. Both shops seemed to have fewer customers than in previous years.
• I live in a small, short-walled compound that has five houses. Traditionally (I have been here full-time for 7 or so years and part-time for longer) I have about 30 people ask me prices, etc regarding renting the house(s). This year there was a grand total of 2 people (one of whom took the last house). 2 people. Usually about 30 people, this year 2 people.
• I see a fair amount of shops in Mae Nam/Bophut/Bang Rak with 'for sale' or 'for rent' signs. To be fair, that is the case every year after high season, but this year there are more.
• I saw a lot fewer people on my beach. Yes, guests at the hotel(s) which have beach front, but other than them I hardly saw anyone. In past years, there had been a fair amount trundling about.
• I saw many more than usual restaurants closing down and/or the usual locations not opening again.
• I read about huge numbers of Chinese in the kingdom, but I don't think that I actually saw that many on the island. That said, it is definitely possible that I simply do not go where they go. Happily, I saw fewer Chinese on motorcycles (sincere apologies to our many Chinese friends, but seeing Chinese people on motorcycles inspires terror and a dread feeling of accidents to come. Sorry.)
• Electricity on the island is much better; I haven't had a black-out all year!

 

Soooooo, that is some of what I have seen, roughly since the beginning of the year. I am certain that some members will come along to tell me that the numbers were much higher than I am describing, and I am not going to argue; I will merely mention the cartoon that we have all seen with the blind-folded monks touching different parts of an elephant, all stating that it is something different.

 

What does this mean for Koh Samui? 

 

If, as I am sure some will posit, tourists are moving into short-term villa rentals rather than hotels, that would explain some of the recent arrests of 'AIR BnB" villas. Hmm... Are the hotel owners grassing them? It seems to me that people move into short-term villas mainly for a kitchen, and that would mean less employment for cooks, waiters, etc (i.e., local people). I would foresee general drops in local, unskilled/low-skilled employment; waiters, cooks, cleaners, small shop keepers, laundry shops and the like. Before anyone tells me that they are still about, I agree. That said, I am speculating that their numbers are/will go down.

 

Employment will move into the 'all inclusive' larger hotels, and outside of these hotels/enclaves, the general surroundings will become more exclusively Thai/Burmese, with the occasional full-time foreigner (????) thrown in for good measure. Yes, I am describing a slow process whereby the divisions between the tourist and the people living on the island grow until they don't really see each other anymore; it is something that I witnessed in the Caribbean isles.

 

I suspect that we might see a bit more cash spent on infrastructure (good thing), but it'll be laser-focused around sites/areas/properties with posh hotels (bad thing).

 

Certain parts of the island are going to lag behind, and that lagging will accelerate over time. If one lives near large-scale tourist spots, life will be... er... 'speedy'. If one lives away from large-scale tourist areas, then up-grades may not occur for a while. A long while.

 

That is enough speculation and/or observation on my part for one day...

 

What say you, Samui-ites? I know that there are several permanent residents or long-stayers who don't comment often; how about sharing your thoughts this time? A long-term perspective on the island is a wonderful thing!

 

Any thoughts at all?

 

Cheers

SB

 

PS

 

On another matter...

 

Has anyone had a monk from the Wat in Bang Po try to sell them stuff? I am an early morning cyclist and three times now I have had him trying to sell me junk. The first day he waved me over from my bike, and since he was a monk I went over. He tried to sell me a cheap amulet. I said in my limited(!!!) Thai that I don't carry money when I cycle. Since that morning, I have seen him twice more and both times he has tried to wave me over again; I smile, semi-Wai and cycle onward. I get the honest monks, and I get the massively embezzling monks, but I don't get the monks who break their vows for a hundred Baht. 

 

Anyone? Is there any possible way that what he is doing is legitimate? Kind of like selling Girl Scout Cookies, maybe?

 

[khunPer]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Any thoughts at all?

Samui is changing, and Samui has also changed in the past.

 

When I arrived first time in September 2001, some of the expats said they were considering leaving now, because Samui had changed too much...????

 

I was new in 2001, and Samui was pretty close to kind of "paradise on Earth" for me, so I came back, and a few years later I decided to settle as expat. I can surely see the changes from then to now.

 

Today folks are saying that they consider to leve – or has already left – because Samui has changed, and is not like in "the good old days" anymore. "Good old days" is just about 15 years ago, perhaps only 10 years. I however have friends that began to come here only a few years ago, and are now considering moving to here, as they find it pretty close to "paradise on Earth"; wonder what they might say in 15 years from now...????

 

@Samui Bodoh, all your observations are correct – I observe much of similar changes at the same places you talk about – because Samui is changing, like it was about 20 years ago, but not same-same way-of-changes. However there were plenty of bars and restaurants for sale also then, some of them already closed, and with a pretty worn-out "for sale"-sign hanging outside. And at that time we would just come, walk the beach to look for a nice bungalow, or ask some that seemed like speaking our language, or first head straight to the usual place, and check if a room was available. Today you "google-street-walk" on the Internet instead, and book in advance, preferably by Airbnb including kitchen, if not renting a villa together with friends or family.

 

I presume that if those, who left because of changes about the time I arrived – and never returned – would be in for a major surprise, if the came back today...????

 

Some might call the changes progress...????

 

PS: A lucky amulet might be a valuable item to possess when cycling on the roads of Samui, the blessed monk has a good selling-point...

[churchill]

2 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Employment will move into the 'all inclusive' larger hotels, and outside of these hotels/enclaves, the general surroundings will become more exclusively Thai/Burmese, with the occasional full-time foreigner (????) thrown in for good measure. Yes, I am describing a slow process whereby the divisions between the tourist and the people living on the island grow until they don't really see each other anymore; it is something that I witnessed in the Caribbean isles.

I think this is a good point .... Some hotels are very busy .. I have seen many more limousines for the Four Seasons , for example ,  in the last 6 months or so , sometimes only a few hundred metres apart ferrying customers to and fro .... I think if you are staying at a resort like the Four Season you do not move a lot .

 

and As currencies devalue we will probably see more Asian rather than western ... 

[monk280915]

My wife & I have owned a travel agency in Lamai for several years. Our sales have dropped by 50% over the last year. We were thinking it was possibly due to the large number of web based booking sites, but all of the tour providers we deal with have had a significant drop in their numbers as well. A few have gone as far as selling off some of their assets to try and stay afloat. Thailand has been in the international news spotlight far to many times and most of it has not been good. I believe other South East Asian countries have learned from these short comings and are welcoming tourist with a more safe, friendly, & honest travel experience.

[phetphet]

The strength of the baht does not help. Families in Europe can holiday in Turkey which is closer, and whose currency has tanked, giving them much better value for money. Expats, including myself find it very expensive now. 

Flights from Bangkok are not cheap.

 

As for the Chinese, have a look in Tops and Central Festival. There seems to be lots of them shopping. They seem to be renting villas and apartments now. Or look at the minibuses lining up at the Bangrak piers, dropping them off for the boat trips. The boat operators must be rubbing their hands with joy.

 

The demographic of tourists seems to be changing, and the Chinese don't seem to go in the bars.

I can't speak about Chaweng, but Bangrak has seemed especially quiet for a long time now. In fact, I walked through Fisherman's Village last night and it was dead.

 

 

[khunPer]

1 hour ago, phetphet said:

I can't speak about Chaweng, but Bangrak has seemed especially quiet for a long time now. In fact, I walked through Fisherman's Village last night and it was dead.

We shall not forget that May and June traditionally are low-season month, and has always been quite dead, apart from a few years with budget tourists from Russia or Eastern Europe (hard for me to instantly tell the difference between Ukrainians and Russians).

 

Chaweng's party nightlife has been crowded by loads of international high school kids since mid May, just like last year – count in hundreds, perhaps even a thousand – presumable some resorts made bargains during the low season.

 

But true that many Europens suffers from bad baht exchange rates, so do many expats...

[GeorgeCross]

17 minutes ago, khunPer said:

We shall not forget that May and June traditionally are low-season month, and has always been quite dead, apart from a few years with budget tourists from Russia or Eastern Europe (hard for me to instantly tell the difference between Ukrainians and Russians).

 

Chaweng's party nightlife has been crowded by loads of international high school kids since mid May, just like last year – count in hundreds, perhaps even a thousand – presumable some resorts made bargains during the low season.

 

But true that many Europens suffers from bad baht exchange rates, so do many expats...

 

so do chinese, yuan is down 25% last couple of years too

[ncc1701d]

For potential long term living, I would imagine that new people visiting would describe it as paradise as they think of their ideal place that is opposite to the hustle and bustle and ongoing challenges wherever they live and work. The thing is, many people actually need that sort of environment. It’s a bit like that scene in the matrix when agent smith says the first operating system was a paradise - and it ended up being a disaster. 

[GalaxyMan]

You're all pretty much spot on, except for the electricity not going out. I bless my whole-house generator regularly.

 

Tourism is almost dead. There aren't enough private bungalows and houses to replace all of the hotel rooms that groups usually book. The Chinese have mostly stopped coming, whether that's because of the stupidity of the government or because of Bangkok Air's monopoly and lack of direct routes is hard to say. It's difficult and expensive to get to Samui and it's also more expensive than just about anywhere else in Thailand comparatively. Why should they make the effort when it's easier to go to Phuket, for example?

 

I first came here in 1983 and the changes are incredible, yet it's still the same in all the ways that count. You couldn't pay me to live anywhere else.

[robertson468]

1 hour ago, GalaxyMan said:

You're all pretty much spot on, except for the electricity not going out. I bless my whole-house generator regularly.

 

Tourism is almost dead. There aren't enough private bungalows and houses to replace all of the hotel rooms that groups usually book. The Chinese have mostly stopped coming, whether that's because of the stupidity of the government or because of Bangkok Air's monopoly and lack of direct routes is hard to say. It's difficult and expensive to get to Samui and it's also more expensive than just about anywhere else in Thailand comparatively. Why should they make the effort when it's easier to go to Phuket, for example?

 

I first came here in 1983 and the changes are incredible, yet it's still the same in all the ways that count. You couldn't pay me to live anywhere else.

Like you, I love Samui, but have to disagree with you on a couple of points.  We have a small Resort, which has been in business for 14 years now.  Our bookings for July and August are 100% and September and October are over 50% booked, at the moment, November is looking a little quiet, but there are still several months of possible bookings and then we pick up in December to 70%, then January, February and March 100% booked.  In the time we have been in business, we have received only one Chinese Family to stay with us and have to say, they were very nice and polite.  You can hardly blame Bangkok Airways for taking the biggest slice of the air traveller income.  They built the Airport and are in a very comfortable position regarding business on Samui.  Think.  If you were in the same position of having a unique product, would you not capitalise on it.......sure you would if you are a businessman.  I must admit that the Island has changed considerably over the years and has been said before, that's progress, whether you like it or not and is not unique to Samui.  Would I move...........m-m-m-m that's a difficult one.  My Wife has 20 rai of rubber plantation in Surat Thani and we have talked about taking two rai, one for us and one for her parents and living a slightly quieter life........but not yet methinks!

[Captain 776]

Samui is past its best before date.

After my last time there......it was my LAST TIME

[Samui Bodoh]

Hi All

 

Many thanks for all the replies! There are many responses that are at a more 'macro' level (but I will drop an opinion regardless because I am having a very slow week ????); I will try to shift focus more onto local issues later on.

 

@khunPer. "The true test of another man's intelligence is how much he agrees with you"... so you are one bright dude! Yes, change is constant and relative at the same time. I still recall my first visit to the island when I rented a bike and drove from Mae Nam to Cheweng. There were 'green fields' between Mae Nam and Bophut and Bophut and Cheweng. If I had had the foresight to buy up that land, I'd be dictating this post while my team of 20 hot Thai chicks were coming up with new ways to please me! Oh well... That said, I like that there are supermarkets now; to me the trick has always been to structure my life to enjoy 'Western' stuff in the mornings while enjoying the joy of Thailand in the afternoons.

 

@churchill. Does it matter if the tourists are Asian or Western? I have always found the gap was between locals/residents and short-timers/holiday-makers. As to your other point, I'll come back to it below.

 

@monk280915. I agree entirely; good post. I think other countries in the region are accelerating their tourism business at the expense of Thailand, and let's face it, they are hungrier. I dislike generalizing (which, by saying it means I am going to do it), but I think some Thais have become too jaded; one of the true initial joys of Thailand for me was the genuinely warm welcome. I still get the welcome in meeting new people, but it doesn't seem as prevalent these days. And, crumbling infrastructure; if you quintuple the rate of tourism in 20 years, you need to create/build a matching infrastructure to keep up, and Thailand has not done so...

 

@phetphet. Yes, the exchange rate is getting... trickier. I am not hugely knowledgeable on this matter, but I would say that it is doubly difficult for Aussies; you folks had a 20+ year run of good economic news, it'll be hard to achieve that again. It is based on no more knowledge than being a bit of a newspaper junkie, but if I were Aussie, I'd be racking my brain for coping mechanisms as I think for you it'll get worse, baring some sort of calamity in the kingdom. BTW, what happened to the black cat? Did you keep him/her?

 

@GalaxyMan. What can I say about the electricity? I know that we live in the same town; it is luck of the draw... You stated that "you couldn't pay me to live anywhere else" and I agree with that sentiment entirely. That said, and like many a member I think, I am wondering if I'll still be able to live here in... 10 years? It is not a financial thing (I live frugally and have been fortunate in life), but more some of the changes in the kingdom... (I am on hiatus from discussing politics, so you all can draw your own conclusions)

 

I want to come back to a point I made in the OP, and see if there is any further comment. When I was a kid (many, many years ago...), I went to a Caribbean island resort with my folks (I don't recall which island/country) and my most vivid memory was of the surrounding, very high, wall with broken glass embedded in the top to keep people out. Further, when we checked in, there were serious and repeated reminders to put all valuables in the resort's safe and to not leave them in the room. The resort was great, but it was totally isolated from the rest of the island; physically, culturally, sociologically, economically, etc.

 

I have noticed/heard that on Samui the trend is towards 'all-inclusive' places with the idea that they want to keep the guests inside their walls most of the time (@churchill) If that is the case, that will lead to less business for locals in restaurants, massage places, bars, laundry shops, etc. Further, there also seems to be a trend towards renting villas, and to me that means that people want to cook their own meals, again meaning that locals are going to lose out economically.

 

What is going to happen to the low/no skilled labour on the island? If the big resorts require some sort of education (and they will), what will a local guy/gal do for work in the future? It'll mean fewer tourism jobs here, and let's face it, if you live on Samui and don't work in a tourism-related business, you'll not get too far. Further, as the resorts get more and more isolated from the locals, hard feelings are going to develop, in turn leading to more security, in turn leading to even more security including the villas now, which in turn will lead to more hostility, high walls, etc. Yes, I know that I am painting an ugly picture, but this is the (very slow!) process that I see underway, based on what I saw before.

 

Anyone agree that ghettoization of tourism spots/hotels/beaches is the future here? If so, what are the implications?

 

In response to @GalaxyMan's question above, is tourism dead on Samui or is it merely concentrating on a few locales? Hmm... fewer and fewer locales?

 

Any other question that I should be asking that goes with this thread? Questions with a local, Samui-based theme?

 

Cheers all!

 

 

[Samui Bodoh]

1 minute ago, Captain 776 said:

Samui is past its best before date.

After my last time there......it was my LAST TIME

Oh darn!

 

We will really, really, really, really miss you. Honest. 

 

Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

 

Bye Bye!

 

And...

 

Good riddance.

[pennine]

I've been here 6 years on a retirement visa/extension and live in Choeng Mon. when I first came here, the bars and restaurants in Bang Rak were jam packed, now they are deserted. Selling one's house is a major challenge as one agent put it "there are more people leaving than arriving". So it seems that there are fewer tourists and residents. A bit of a contradiction is that the flights in and out of Samui are nearly always fully booked (despite the monopoly fare price of Bangkok Airways).

[GalaxyMan]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

What can I say about the electricity? I know that we live in the same town; it is luck of the draw... You stated that "you couldn't pay me to live anywhere else" and I agree with that sentiment entirely. That said, and like many a member I think, I am wondering if I'll still be able to live here in... 10 years? It is not a financial thing (I live frugally and have been fortunate in life), but more some of the changes in the kingdom... (I am on hiatus from discussing politics, so you all can draw your own conclusions)

 

I want to come back to a point I made in the OP, and see if there is any further comment. When I was a kid (many, many years ago...), I went to a Caribbean island resort with my folks (I don't recall which island/country) and my most vivid memory was of the surrounding, very high, wall with broken glass embedded in the top to keep people out. Further, when we checked in, there were serious and repeated reminders to put all valuables in the resort's safe and to not leave them in the room. The resort was great, but it was totally isolated from the rest of the island; physically, culturally, sociologically, economically, etc.

 

I have noticed/heard that on Samui the trend is towards 'all-inclusive' places with the idea that they want to keep the guests inside their walls most of the time (@churchill) If that is the case, that will lead to less business for locals in restaurants, massage places, bars, laundry shops, etc. Further, there also seems to be a trend towards renting villas, and to me that means that people want to cook their own meals, again meaning that locals are going to lose out economically.

 

What is going to happen to the low/no skilled labour on the island? If the big resorts require some sort of education (and they will), what will a local guy/gal do for work in the future? It'll mean fewer tourism jobs here, and let's face it, if you live on Samui and don't work in a tourism-related business, you'll not get too far. Further, as the resorts get more and more isolated from the locals, hard feelings are going to develop, in turn leading to more security, in turn leading to even more security including the villas now, which in turn will lead to more hostility, high walls, etc. Yes, I know that I am painting an ugly picture, but this is the (very slow!) process that I see underway, based on what I saw before.

 

Anyone agree that ghettoization of tourism spots/hotels/beaches is the future here? If so, what are the implications?

Great stuff. Luckily, I shouldn't have any problems being able to stay here. I've been smart and saved for my retirement. I live frugally, having been there, done that with the possessions acquisitions phase of life. Now I'm only interested in good food, drink, and company.

 

I've been to Jamaica many times, and other than back in the 70s, I stay in all-inclusive resorts. It's just not safe to leave them. That's not the case here in Samui. It's called laziness on the part of tourists. When you have an all-inclusive package deal, the cheap tourists don't spend money outside. I have Thai friends who work the Walking Streets on Samui and they tell me that there's a lot of lookers and photo takers, not so many buyers. Sad.

 

My friend in management at a Samui resort tells me that one of their biggest problems, other than that they have no guests, is that many/most of the staff speaks little to no English. They pay very low wages, so that's what they get; under-educated, less qualified workers, and it is reflected in the comments you can read on any of the travel websites, like Expedia, etc.

 

My gut tells me that everything that is happening is geared away from the budget tourists, aiming for the high-dollar tourists, which makes perfect sense. But it will definitely end up changing the good island vibes when all of the fun, low-budget people go elsewhere.

 

The future isn't all that bright, seems to me.

[khunPer]

3 hours ago, pennine said:

when I first came here, the bars and restaurants in Bang Rak were jam packed, now they are deserted. Selling one's house is a major challenge as one agent put it "there are more people leaving than arriving".

The answer might well be the same, Samui is changing.

 

When many of us first came here, the beer bars – especially the ones with ladies serving, and entertaining the customers – were fairly packed. But in those days the majority of visitors – apart from those relative few staying in the limited number of multi-star gated-and-walled resorts – where backpackers and single males.

 

Now the similar majority is a mix of couples; and families with children, often multiple, and including teens; and young folks heading for a combination of beach, sun, and party. Contemporary back packers have plastic cards, stay in comfortable aircon rooms with a high end gourmet breakfast buffet, and visit trendy cafés and pubs. However, I still meet few of the original style backpackers asking me for direction to the 300 baht bungalows on the beach – fewer and fewer every year – might mainly be folks living in the past, as they are often similar aged as that past, I presume they live in...????

My own backpacker friends of the past, still visiting Samui, has upgraded from 2nd class night train and ferry to now Bankok Airways, and from fan-only cold-water bungalows to aircon hot-water, and in a comfortable resort. Every year they used to visit their bar-owner friends, and order a half-bottle Sangsom & Coke, and enjoy an evening talking with other bar guests, but I think its past now. Many of the former beer bars have vanished, because so has their customers, even outnumbering the vanished number of beer bar, leaving the remaining beer bars half empty, apart from a few selected that remain busy.

 

Those of my "middle-aged single male" friends, or at least travelling like "singles" – which might act like generalization of their kind, or might not at all be a source for generalization – avoid Samui now, because its relative expensive (however, they could all easily afford it, but prefer to spend their money on something else); not enough beer bars, and especially not enough "inventory" in the remaining beer bars (the bad circle that only get worse with disappearing customers and thereby outlets, or disappearing outlets and thereby customers); the night-life has become too much loud and weird techno and hip-hop music, which is light years apart from their favorite 60'ies to 70'ies stuff as Credence Clearwater Revival and like pop, played at an acceptable background sound-level; and their lost battle with unfair competition from much younger, and for real more handsome guys...????

 

Property business, in the affordable level – relative, but affordable for what I, and probably others, consider like more "normal" people – began to suffer around 2009 after the so-called financial crises, and has still not returned to previous power. The baht currency exchange rates have also been mainly downhill since that time. However, real estate in the for us "normal" folks' dream-level seems fairly unaffected, as a real-estate-agent friend said during the "financial crises": »Anything from 70 million baht and up is business as normal.«

 

There still seem to be a lot of new high-end construction going on, both villas and resorts, and that would normally instantly stop, if there were no more predicted business. Seems like somebody believe in a future, however a changed future from our remembrance of how Samui once was.

 

I'm however happy here, I don't visit beer bars, I like the contemporary music and Chaweng's party nightlife, and I have no intention of selling my "dream"-house...????

[evadgib]

The last power outage in Maenam two nights ago was the 2nd this week.

[khunPer]

5 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I have noticed/heard that on Samui the trend is towards 'all-inclusive' places with the idea that they want to keep the guests inside their walls most of the time (@churchill) If that is the case, that will lead to less business for locals in restaurants, massage places, bars, laundry shops, etc. Further, there also seems to be a trend towards renting villas, and to me that means that people want to cook their own meals, again meaning that locals are going to lose out economically.

 

What is going to happen to the low/no skilled labour on the island? If the big resorts require some sort of education (and they will), what will a local guy/gal do for work in the future? It'll mean fewer tourism jobs here, and let's face it, if you live on Samui and don't work in a tourism-related business, you'll not get too far. Further, as the resorts get more and more isolated from the locals, hard feelings are going to develop, in turn leading to more security, in turn leading to even more security including the villas now, which in turn will lead to more hostility, high walls, etc. Yes, I know that I am painting an ugly picture, but this is the (very slow!) process that I see underway, based on what I saw before.

 

Anyone agree that ghettoization of tourism spots/hotels/beaches is the future here? If so, what are the implications?

When I first visited Thailand i 1987 the beach-destination on the round trip tour was Pattaya at that time – and my memory was indeed very different from when I revisited the place late 2004 – where we stayed at the famous fairly new Royal Cliff Hotel. We – my home country girlfriend, my parents and a friend – were told not to go outside the hotel premises, except for guided tours arranged by the hotel, as it could be very dangerous "out there". We were bad customers, we did head outside on our own, and also had dinners downtown – however, we managed to survive, or perhaps it was just pure luck...

 

Last time this kind of thread was on, I posted about my daily beach walk observations, passing a number of resorts from very affordable, to that kind of multi-star "walled" places, from where you should not head out on your own, or behave against the regulations – the beach guards calls all guest up from the sea water at 6:30 pm; guest shall not swim in the sea after dark, its dangerous...????

 

The walled resort seems busy, as usual, and was very busy, if not full house, during the season. The affordable, but little up-priced level resort next to it is also busy now – at least their beach-front row of bungalows looks full house – whilst the affordable more old-fashioned bungalow resorts I pass are nearly deserted. Remember that May and June are normally low season. My own neighbor, an affordable so-called boutique hotel, looks pretty closed, with only few rooms rented out, one section complete closed down, and a restaurant that seems like the staff has given up serving dinner. Might be that its just difficult to find staff.

 

So the trend – which seem to be the reality – is that Samui guests are

• -becoming more in search for quality
• -that more people are staying in multi-star resorts, including walled ones with guarded gates, than the "old-fashioned" bungalows and hotels
• -that families, or smaller private groups, seem to prefer villas with kitchen rather than hotel rooms, or similar bungalows, or even higher end private pool-villas.

Some of the walled hi-end resorts also offers private fully serviced pool villas. All that requite staff, and I always hear that its difficult to find staff, so I don't think there is a problem finding work, for those that want to work.

 

A friend was kind of unskilled cook in an affordable beach resort that closed due to lack of guests. She was immediately offered a kitchen trainee job at a 5-star resort, where she is educated in gourmet meals, but at a higher wage than her job as cook. With a reputable multi-star resort on the CV, she could easily find well paid jobs later, if she wish to change.

 

Furthermore, all the many "workers" on Samui are only temporary here. They come for the work, and many, if not most, of them move back again. So it has been for long time, also before the tourist boom. Samui was originally inhabited with a limited number of Hainan families that first grew cotton, and later changed business plan to coconuts, when the cotton plants died. Already at that time, workers were "imported", and there has been an increasing traffic of workforce in and out of Samui ever since. Unskilled workers become skilled here, the resorts will train them how to clean rooms, and how to do this-and-that. Some have even been send to English language training as part of the job training, I know employees from for example Tesco-Lotus and Lomprayah that attended workplace paid English-school during business hours.

 

The major problem in Thailand, including Samui, is to find workers at all. Up to 10 percent of workers in Thailand are migrant workers – more, if the former unregistered workers are included – as there are not enough Thais, either available, or that want to work. The official unemployment rate is under one percent. Take for example building construction, which in most Western countries is a skilled profession, that is unskilled here, and the building constructor's foreman and team will tell the new workers what to do, and in that way train them. Often Myanmar workers are preferred in tourist business, as they can speak some level of English. However, migrant workers begin to head home, as their job opportunities are increasing with booming business and relative higher salaries in both Cambodia and Myanmar, leaving mainly Laotians to work here.

 

I cannot see unskilled workers are having a problem, but I could see that some self-employed, or small business owners, need to upgrade, or change their business to survive, or become employees. Especially if they opened a business in a field that is already crowded. The same happened in the West, and is still happening; that's called progress, I think...????

 

In general, if we can trust the statistics – we don't have anything better to replace with, apart from our individual observations – the number of incoming tourists are increasing, also for Samui, whilst the average stay seems to be decreasing, as the higher number of Asian tourists spend less days in Thailand than Western tourists, and the latter are slightly decrease for numerous reasons.

 

Apart from Chinese, that counts for some 10 million or about 30% of the total number of tourists, Indians are predicted to be in same high numbers within a few years. I notice more-and-more Indian tourists here during the last few years and they seem to get around outside the walls; that's mainly why I notice them, apart from the multi-star resort's beach. Samui is however little different from many other Thai tourist destinations. Of the total 2.7 million tourists in Surat Thani province in 2018, so including Phanang and Tao, the top-3 was:

1. 15% Chinese
2. 10% Germans
3. 10% Brits

Compared to Phuket with

1. 35% Chinese
2. 10% Russians
3. 5% Indians

or Pattaya with

1. 40% Chinese
2. 10% Indians
3. 7% South Koreans

 

I'm sure that there is a future for Samui, but in light of progress its different from the past, like the past was different from the time before the past, and so on back to the happy hippie era when Samui tourism was created...????

 

[khunPer]

1 hour ago, evadgib said:

The last power outage in Maenam two nights ago was the 2nd this week.

We only noticed one, during day time it was, but it might well be a question of a local transformer that has been overloaded, and fuses falling. Takes from an hour, to a couple of hours, to get some out with skills to manually reset/reconnect the high voltage fuses. During daytime it could just be plain service work.

 

In general grid power supply is unbelievable much better than before; if you have stayed here before, you understand...????

[Samui Bodoh]

10 hours ago, khunPer said:

When I first visited Thailand i 1987 the beach-destination on the round trip tour was Pattaya at that time – and my memory was indeed very different from when I revisited the place late 2004 – where we stayed at the famous fairly new Royal Cliff Hotel. We – my home country girlfriend, my parents and a friend – were told not to go outside the hotel premises, except for guided tours arranged by the hotel, as it could be very dangerous "out there". We were bad customers, we did head outside on our own, and also had dinners downtown – however, we managed to survive, or perhaps it was just pure luck...

 

Last time this kind of thread was on, I posted about my daily beach walk observations, passing a number of resorts from very affordable, to that kind of multi-star "walled" places, from where you should not head out on your own, or behave against the regulations – the beach guards calls all guest up from the sea water at 6:30 pm; guest shall not swim in the sea after dark, its dangerous...????

 

The walled resort seems busy, as usual, and was very busy, if not full house, during the season. The affordable, but little up-priced level resort next to it is also busy now – at least their beach-front row of bungalows looks full house – whilst the affordable more old-fashioned bungalow resorts I pass are nearly deserted. Remember that May and June are normally low season. My own neighbor, an affordable so-called boutique hotel, looks pretty closed, with only few rooms rented out, one section complete closed down, and a restaurant that seems like the staff has given up serving dinner. Might be that its just difficult to find staff.

 

So the trend – which seem to be the reality – is that Samui guests are

• -becoming more in search for quality
• -that more people are staying in multi-star resorts, including walled ones with guarded gates, than the "old-fashioned" bungalows and hotels
• -that families, or smaller private groups, seem to prefer villas with kitchen rather than hotel rooms, or similar bungalows, or even higher end private pool-villas.

Some of the walled hi-end resorts also offers private fully serviced pool villas. All that requite staff, and I always hear that its difficult to find staff, so I don't think there is a problem finding work, for those that want to work.

 

A friend was kind of unskilled cook in an affordable beach resort that closed due to lack of guests. She was immediately offered a kitchen trainee job at a 5-star resort, where she is educated in gourmet meals, but at a higher wage than her job as cook. With a reputable multi-star resort on the CV, she could easily find well paid jobs later, if she wish to change.

 

Furthermore, all the many "workers" on Samui are only temporary here. They come for the work, and many, if not most, of them move back again. So it has been for long time, also before the tourist boom. Samui was originally inhabited with a limited number of Hainan families that first grew cotton, and later changed business plan to coconuts, when the cotton plants died. Already at that time, workers were "imported", and there has been an increasing traffic of workforce in and out of Samui ever since. Unskilled workers become skilled here, the resorts will train them how to clean rooms, and how to do this-and-that. Some have even been send to English language training as part of the job training, I know employees from for example Tesco-Lotus and Lomprayah that attended workplace paid English-school during business hours.

 

The major problem in Thailand, including Samui, is to find workers at all. Up to 10 percent of workers in Thailand are migrant workers – more, if the former unregistered workers are included – as there are not enough Thais, either available, or that want to work. The official unemployment rate is under one percent. Take for example building construction, which in most Western countries is a skilled profession, that is unskilled here, and the building constructor's foreman and team will tell the new workers what to do, and in that way train them. Often Myanmar workers are preferred in tourist business, as they can speak some level of English. However, migrant workers begin to head home, as their job opportunities are increasing with booming business and relative higher salaries in both Cambodia and Myanmar, leaving mainly Laotians to work here.

 

I cannot see unskilled workers are having a problem, but I could see that some self-employed, or small business owners, need to upgrade, or change their business to survive, or become employees. Especially if they opened a business in a field that is already crowded. The same happened in the West, and is still happening; that's called progress, I think...????

 

In general, if we can trust the statistics – we don't have anything better to replace with, apart from our individual observations – the number of incoming tourists are increasing, also for Samui, whilst the average stay seems to be decreasing, as the higher number of Asian tourists spend less days in Thailand than Western tourists, and the latter are slightly decrease for numerous reasons.

 

Apart from Chinese, that counts for some 10 million or about 30% of the total number of tourists, Indians are predicted to be in same high numbers within a few years. I notice more-and-more Indian tourists here during the last few years and they seem to get around outside the walls; that's mainly why I notice them, apart from the multi-star resort's beach. Samui is however little different from many other Thai tourist destinations. Of the total 2.7 million tourists in Surat Thani province in 2018, so including Phanang and Tao, the top-3 was:

1. 15% Chinese
2. 10% Germans
3. 10% Brits

Compared to Phuket with

1. 35% Chinese
2. 10% Russians
3. 5% Indians

or Pattaya with

1. 40% Chinese
2. 10% Indians
3. 7% South Koreans

 

I'm sure that there is a future for Samui, but in light of progress its different from the past, like the past was different from the time before the past, and so on back to the happy hippie era when Samui tourism was created...????

 

 

A good post as always, but while I don't disagree, I don't completely agree either.

 

Yes, I agree that Samui will remain a great tourist destination for a long time to come, but I don't agree on the assessment of the labour market.

 

First, I simply do not believe Thai statistics in general and on the labour market in particular. They may (or may not) be generally accurate, but I have seen so many contradictory numbers published (often within days of each other!) that they have lost all credibility. Further, Thai culture, with its emphasis on 'face', accepts lies/bad information at a rate which make serious, credible stats impossible. Finally, so much of the Thai economic activity is 'underground' that assessing the economic/labour situation solely based on official figures is a fools errand.

 

Put another way, if Thailand had actually achieved full employment (I think the usual figure for 'full' employment is 2% unemployed), then other countries would be beating a path to the kingdom in order to copy the Thai economic model, and I do not see that happening. And yes, there are several million foreign labourers about, but to assume that they are here because of a labour shortage is an assumption. I would argue that they are utilized because they are cheap labour and their purpose is to ensure that normal Thai wages don't actually rise much; if the kingdom had such a severe labour shortage as the numbers would seem to indicate, then there would be massive upward pressure on normal Thai wages, and we do not see that. To sum up, I do not agree that the main problem in Thailand is to find workers, I would argue that the main problem is that employers don't want to pay decent wages, and thus they lose their qualified and/or quality workers. 

 

Or, to (perhaps) over-simplify too much... The presence of cheap foreign labour isn't due to a lack of Thai labour, rather some Thai economic activity occurs due to the presence of cheap, foreign labour. And, those are very different things...

 

The above is on a 'macro' level, and I want/have tried to keep this thread on a more... local level.

 

It is a nice story of your friend who became a chef (good for her!), but like the proverbial picture of the blindfolded monks touching an elephant, other views emerge. I was at a hotel recently and was chatting (in surprisingly fluent English) with a young Burmese guy who worked there. Unusually, I asked about his wages (in my culture you never ask) and he was essentially paid in food. Yes, he had a mat on the a floor and was fed; no cash changed hands. The point that I am making is that it isn't always a lack of staff, it is a lack of salary for staff and thus when you pay people little or nothing, they don't hang around.

 

This is the problem in Koh Samui, and I do not see an end in sight. I don't think it matters how much training Thai staff receive here, be it Tesco, a five-star hotel, a Cheweng Beach road shop, etc; if you don't pay them a reasonable wage, they will become disenchanted and either just leave or not work to their potential. And, as my original post posited, this leads to a dissatisfied local populace. Will some leave? Yes. That said, while twenty years ago the local population was extremely transitory, I am not sure if that is still true; people begin to put down roots, and if you are a low paid worker here, you can leave, but you'll usually become a low paid worker somewhere else. so why bother? 

 

All of the above comes back to my original idea that Koh Samui is headed for some kind of 'Ghettoization' where the rich are getting richer and the poor getting poorer, with all the social, and (possible) criminal/security implications and outcomes that brings.

 

I do think that Koh Samui will have a vibrant tourism business for many, many years to come, but I also think it is morphing slowly into a physically, socially, economically and class-based divided island. And, that is sad; one of the great joys of travelling is to meet local people and learn about them.

 

Which of us is correct? How about we resume this discussion in another five years and see where we stand?

 

To all the other Koh Samui members: any other issues about the island, our stay here, or anything else that you might want to bring up? 

 

Where do you see Koh Samui in 5 years?

 

In 10 years?

 

Cheers 

 

 

[GalaxyMan]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I would argue that the main problem is that employers don't want to pay decent wages, and thus they lose their qualified and/or quality workers.

 

The point that I am making is that it isn't always a lack of staff, it is a lack of salary for staff and thus when you pay people little or nothing, they don't hang around.

 

...if you don't pay them a reasonable wage, they will become disenchanted and either just leave or not work to their potential.

Right on the money.

 

To protect my source, I cannot name the 5-star resort in Lipa Noi, but they pay their Thai staff the bare minimum, while the farang staff, who are all in management positions, get paid crazy numbers. My friend is a manager, one of the few Thai managers, and the salary is 1/10 of the farang GM. The farang management look down on the Thai staff in more ways than salary. They treat them with less respect. This particular place, the staff likes the GM as a person, but despises him for being a shitt GM. They have zero respect for him as a person and they show this in their work; slow, poor, uninterested, not invested in the success of the business in any way. And they can't attract good-quality staff because everyone knows that the pay sucks.

[monk280915]

20 hours ago, pennine said:

I've been here 6 years on a retirement visa/extension and live in Choeng Mon. when I first came here, the bars and restaurants in Bang Rak were jam packed, now they are deserted. Selling one's house is a major challenge as one agent put it "there are more people leaving than arriving". So it seems that there are fewer tourists and residents. A bit of a contradiction is that the flights in and out of Samui are nearly always fully booked (despite the monopoly fare price of Bangkok Airways).

The major challenge with selling a house is a vast majority of those selling are still pricing their property as if there is still a "boom" on Samui. The asking prices are way to high for an island in decline.

As for Bangkok Airways being fully booked.... my wife and I often fly from Samui to BKK for doctors appointment. On Bangkok Airways website the plane will show full with only a few of the higher priced seats available, (non economy), when we board we find many more seats empty than was shown on their website. There were even a few times only business class was shown to be available.

[Birdman]

Living on Samui since the end 80s, I have heard that many times. There are years with more tourists, years with less, years with more ... all that is like in the rest of Thailand, in the rest of SEA, not a Samui only phenomena. Wonder anyway why Farangs come to Samui, if business is the primary reason. Samui is a palm island. The most convenient in Thailand, maybe in Asia. I am here because of that. That kind of people never go to the beach. Why are you here?

[Tropicalevo]

I am not smart enough to be able to predict the future and I do not want to feel an elephant whilst wearing a blindfold. Here are some numbers to maybe give an idea of where Samui is heading.

 

I look after a number of properties in the Plai Laem area. About 18 of them are full time rental properties. Most of the others are residents only or casual lets.

 

The number of movements for the various months, when my staff HAVE to be at the villa, ie check ins or check outs, are:-

 

Jan   136      peak season

Feb   141      Chinese New Year

Mar   123

Apr   133      Songkhran

May   110      Mid season

Jun   126      College kids

July   79      booked so far

 

Today we have 7 movements. 4 check ins and 3 check outs.

 

These properties are all 3 or 4 bedrooms with a sea view. They are consistently busy.

 

The rental model has changed significantly over the last few years. Before - longer term rentals (I week to 3 months) and mostly Europeans. We still get this type of booking - just not as many.

 

Now it is mostly Asians and ex pats. India, Hong Kong, Singapore, China, Dubai etc and the bookings are almost always short term (2 to 5 days) and quite a few last minute bookings. On the 1st June there were only 84 confirmed movements for the month. We will do at least 126 movements in june. July has only 79 confirmed movements as of today, but I know that there will be more.

 

There is always a flurry of activity on the the days before the Full Moon Party. Usually last minute bookings - for 3 or 4 days.

 

The June spike is recent. (Last 2 or 3 years?) Kids from the International schools having a 'schoolies' week with their friends. College finished - lets party on Koh Samui! Colleges are from Tokyo, Delhi, Singapore, Hong Kong and Bangkok. The largest group was 27 guests renting 4 villas.

 

The larger groups do not go to pubs or entertainment bars. They eat and drink at the villa quite a lot. It is the same with Asian groups. In-villa chefs do well.

 

I do not go out often but when I do it is usually to local places in Bangrak and Choengmon. Restaurants that I use are consistently occupied. Never full, never empty but good restaurants. When I go to a western restaurant, they are usually more quiet.

 

When people tell me that Samui is dead I cannot agree. I have had to hire more staff, because under the current scenario, we have to be more flexible and reactive. 3 instant bookings today!

 

Where is Samui going? I have no idea but it always seems to pick itself up and move on. For some years people have told me that Samui is finished. If that is true then why am I working so hard. Samui, like the rest of the world, is constantly changing. Change with it.

[khunPer]

5 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

The June spike is recent. (Last 2 or 3 years?) Kids from the International schools having a 'schoolies' week with their friends. College finished - lets party on Koh Samui! Colleges are from Tokyo, Delhi, Singapore, Hong Kong and Bangkok. The largest group was 27 guests renting 4 villas.

Thanks for your details and statistics.

 

That's interesting, and also your comment about the international school kids. I've mentioned it a few times about Chaweng nightlife – that be the beach parties and the discos – is very busy from end of May during most of June in the last couple of years with young school, or college, kids, I presume mainly late teens, seems like several hundreds of them.

 

I had a discussion last year in a Facebook group with expats that said Chaweng was dying, and there were no business in Soi Green Mango, whilst I said the clubs there were full like in a normal high season. Some of nights – I've been there – this year, has been as busy as a New Year Eve. The "kids" arrive early, and are active on the dance floors from Midnight, or before, but also head home in bed (? at least they disappear) early, not too far from 2 am. However the "school children" might not be equal good for business, as the real grown up drinkers are...????

 

Photo from Green Mango Club's Facebook page, rear or 2nd sound stage, posted 10th June (2019).

[Tropicalevo]

You have more energy than I have khunPer.

When I go to Chaweng (about twice a year) i am heading home by 23.00.

 

The Kids are in the 18 - 20 age group and 'seem' to stay out all night. (Still asleep when the team go to clean at 11.00.)

We are just coming to the end of the 'schoolies' month according to my bookings. There are only two large groups coming in for the rest of the month.

Next month, the only large groups are Adults with children. Start of European school holidays perhaps?

[GalaxyMan]

18 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

When people tell me that Samui is dead I cannot agree. I have had to hire more staff, because under the current scenario, we have to be more flexible and reactive. 3 instant bookings today!

Really interesting. Seems that the baseline demographic is changing. An unnamed 5-star resort in Lipa Noi is begging staff to take unpaid leave, business is so bad.

[tjo o tjim]

Economically we are seeing two things— less ripple effect, and more concentration of spending.  People renting villas and staying in gated resorts garner more revenue for the operators, but there are fewer supporting businesses that prosper from them.  The resorts also do not purchase locally, so there is less ripple.  The AirBnB villas tend to be distant landlords as best I can tell.  

 

Geographically, we are also seeing people spread out more.

 

Spent two weeks in KT, and noticed that not many places were really “busy,” but there was business.  Talking to a few “bungalow” resort owners on Sairee it seems like that has been the trend for the past few years.  ฿400 for a taxi from Mae Haad to Sairee really kills the idea of going around to different areas at night. 

[wilcopops]

On 6/19/2019 at 2:28 PM, Samui Bodoh said:

The number of motorcycles un-rented seemed much higher this year; I started paying attention to them as I drove about, and this year there were always more on display than I remember. 

Personal observation is a very dodgy way of assessing things like tourism figures........ and this OP seems to have got the wrong end of the stick on just about everything.....as an example is the very questionable interpretation of th numbers of motorcycles...hs it not occurred to him/her that this illusion be actually be due to an increase in the number of vehicles available - Samui is in fact suffering from over supply in many areas - long-term rental, new building 4 & % star rooms all are in excess of requirements.

 

What happens on Samui is actually repeated throughout the country; unregulated unplanned and unreasearched development just continues headless of accurate market/business forecasts and so the islands natural resources ae gradually replaced with a more urban hotel/resort based economy with all tyhr concomitant traffic, pollution and degradation of the islands original appeal.

this however does not mean a reduction in customers (guests) as although many European and western visitors may dip slightly in numbers, China now accounts for one third of ALL tourist to Thailand.....and NO! they are not all low spenders at all........ They are big money and a growing market. unfortunately in Western eyes, much of what thy see as essential for a vacation is not in line with western perceptions. Thy require a much more urban "laid-on" or even artificial experience.......some the Thai entrepreneurs are much more in tune with then westerners.

[wilcopops]

On 6/22/2019 at 8:16 PM, Birdman said:

There are years with more tourists, years with less, years with more ...

 

actually there are very few years with LESS - they may plateau but the inexorable trend is for ever up. 

te apparent dips ae largely just perception through the eyes of Westerners who are not aware of other parts of the tourist market.