connda Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, andytime said: None of the world is too healthy.. with almost 13 trillion in negative yielding bonds. And about $1 quadtrillion global derivatives exposure. But - what possibly could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marko kok prong Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Not mentioned is the massive amount of household debt in Thailand,and what the banks call non perfoming loans[basically defaults] i see trouble ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
connda Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 hour ago, RobbyXNorway said: If you/they still have the baht in the bank, then yes absolutely. But if that money was put into property, then maybe not! The real-estate market in Hua Hin at least is bogged down in the mire. That's only true if you plan to flip the assets for a profit. There is a lot to be said for having no debt and a roof over your head that you own out-right. Right there you're in better shape that 95% of any given population at the present time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ba ba Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 18 minutes ago, connda said: Yeah, when I showed up in 2007 the BKK skyline was littered with mega-projects gone South after the 1997 financial crash. I fully expect to see that scene again in the not too distance future. Thai banks have over-extended debt on their balance sheets. The illusion of prosperity in Thailand is a debt-driven phenomenon, probably more so than the West. Most Thais I know carry more debt than they can service - and Thai banks keep extending more debt, albeit, at usurious interest rates as they provide their depositors with next to nothing. Fractional reserve banking on steroids backed by Credit Default Swaps that won't be worth the paper they are printed on. When the next financial tsunami hits - Thai banks will go down with the rest of the fleet. Then? BKK Skyline 1997 Redux. and so will the ,400,000 and 800,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon43 Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 3 hours ago, soalbundy said: It is are not raining in Bangkok also Many won't understand that joke! ???? Simon - radio ham for 40 years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasane Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 hour ago, watcharacters said: How would it matter unless the farang uses his baht outside Thailand? And don't forget to factor in those nasty little currency exchange fees. ???? Right on. Take a vacation to Europe with appreciated baht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasThBKK Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 42 minutes ago, connda said: Love the way this article was written. The US Fed eases rates which makes the Thai Baht stronger. But that's not reality. The US Fed eases rates which makes the US Dollar weaker. That's reality. It's not about the Thai Baht strengthening against other currencies due to another country's central bank policy, it's about another country's currency weakening against other global currencies, including the THB, due to it's own central bank policies. yes and also other assets are going up due to the increasing bs going on in the world, let's take a look at GOLD: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-GOLD/ Over 1400 USD again, the last time that was the case was from 2011 to 2013. Bitcoin the same up 2xx % since year started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potless Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 hour ago, watcharacters said: 8 hours ago, RichardColeman said: Gonna have to send the wife out to work At 10K baht a month? Why bother? More money coming in and to give his ears a rest. Win win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 4 hours ago, zydeco said: It was met with derision when I said almost a year ago that Trump would drive the dollar down below the lows of the Yingluck years, which was almost 28 baht to the dollar. Well, it's coming. How do you like that Trump economy now? It is Trump's policy to accumulate debt and make the dollar cheap. A US middle class that is a shell of its former self, fat rich bankers and CEOs, and expats in Thailand forced out of the country because of the policies of the man they voted for. Without that 800K in the bank, people seeking extensions are going to be in trouble. A five to ten percent reduction in the exchange rate will destroy the income method for a lot of people. Yeah, this is another gift from Trump to US expats in Thailand. The US economy had been churning along with the feds poised to raise rates, which would have boosted the dollar. But the economic uncertainty, largely from Trump tariffs and the looming China trade war, has derailed that. Not to mention the Iran crisis--another Trump gift--which is sure to raise oil prices and create more uncertainty. Thanks Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potless Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 The quantitative easing policies of western governments that have devalued their currencies began a long time before Trump came on the scene. Is he responsible for the weakening of the G.B.P the Euro and the Aus dollar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
30la Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 As always, the banks dictate and the people must pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megascott Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 13 minutes ago, potless said: The quantitative easing policies of western governments that have devalued their currencies began a long time before Trump came on the scene. Is he responsible for the weakening of the G.B.P the Euro and the Aus dollar? True. This is not all Trumps fault, including the erosion of the middle class. That started a long time ago when it was supposedly more financially beneficial for American companies to outsource as much as possible, you can blame the CEO's of the large companies for making these horrible decisions, not Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardColeman Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 2 hours ago, watcharacters said: At 10K baht a month? Why bother? Actually she did - worked on a gate as security for 12 hours a day while I took care of the baby. Most of my income came from a tenant in my house in the UK - so when he started mucking around money got tight. I like to think I married the right one, who wold rather go out to work and chip in than lose her husband and house. Irony is that she is a teacher by trade so should get a better wage - but too old to employ being over 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zydeco Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 2 hours ago, connda said: Most Thais I know carry more debt than they can service - and Thai banks keep extending more debt, albeit, at usurious interest rates as they provide their depositors with next to nothing. Fractional reserve banking on steroids backed by Credit Default Swaps that won't be worth the paper they are printed on. When the next financial tsunami hits - Thai banks will go down with the rest of the fleet. Then? BKK Skyline 1997 Redux. Don't worry about the Thais. A credit amnesty will be kicked in. How to pay for that? Well, lots of expats with brand new year-long required 400,000 baht bank deposit. Not to mention those they'll also get with 800,000 stuck in the bank for five months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zydeco Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 2 hours ago, ba ba said: and so will the ,400,000 and 800,000 And just think Immigration and the banks can then hit us up for another 400K and 800K after the banks have grabbed the first batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jano22 Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Berkshire said: Yeah, this is another gift from Trump to US expats in Thailand. The US economy had been churning along with the feds poised to raise rates, which would have boosted the dollar. But the economic uncertainty, largely from Trump tariffs and the looming China trade war, has derailed that. Not to mention the Iran crisis--another Trump gift--which is sure to raise oil prices and create more uncertainty. Thanks Trump. That’s what happen when you let a clown run the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zydeco Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 hour ago, potless said: The quantitative easing policies of western governments that have devalued their currencies began a long time before Trump came on the scene. Is he responsible for the weakening of the G.B.P the Euro and the Aus dollar? Central bankers, of course, are in agreement on monetizing their debts to escape the monster deficits and welfare obligations they have. See the 2016 Shanghai Accord. But this time around, most other Central Banks have already gone ZIRP or NIRP and are getting ready for QE 4, 5, 6 to infinity. With the Fed still stuck out there with what was effectively a zero interest rate, based on inflation, you had Trump bellowing like an ox every day because all the others already have their ZIRP. Now the Fed has caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianezy0 Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 However, some factors give cause for optimism, such as the Monetary Policy Committee’s recent decision to hold the policy rate steady at 1.75 per cent, along with the slight baht appreciation to 31.796 per US dollar at the end of May from 31.86 at the end of this April. Looking at the above paragraph, the report appears to be about 8 weeks old? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moe666 Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 10 hours ago, zydeco said: It was met with derision when I said almost a year ago that Trump would drive the dollar down below the lows of the Yingluck years, which was almost 28 baht to the dollar. Well, it's coming. How do you like that Trump economy now? It is Trump's policy to accumulate debt and make the dollar cheap. A US middle class that is a shell of its former self, fat rich bankers and CEOs, and expats in Thailand forced out of the country because of the policies of the man they voted for. Without that 800K in the bank, people seeking extensions are going to be in trouble. A five to ten percent reduction in the exchange rate will destroy the income method for a lot of people. Try the baht was 27 pushing 26 about 5 years ago when the Japanese and americans were dumping money like mad into Thailand. My Thai stockaccount went up 100 percent I made a nice profit on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thongkorn Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 7 hours ago, watcharacters said: At 10K baht a month? Why bother? Think 8500 is more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmen Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 9 hours ago, Kasane said: Thai baht appreciation has been a great bonanza for farangs who moved their savings to Thai banks. There's perhaps more to come as Western economies go into a tailspin. Yet I still see fools posting " never put put even 1 baht in Thai banks " and "I keep my money back home where it's safe" long term property holders will be looking at selling but not yet, loooong way for western currencies to drop and the baht is just getting stronger by the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasane Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 21 minutes ago, madmen said: Yet I still see fools posting " never put put even 1 baht in Thai banks " and "I keep my money back home where it's safe" long term property holders will be looking at selling but not yet, loooong way for western currencies to drop and the baht is just getting stronger by the day Banks in EU have negative interest rates. Farangs pay banks to keep their money. Yeah, money is safe back home. ???????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocddave Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Man its going down fast, I just check Transferwise, to send the same amount I did last month, it will cost almost 4000 baht more.....yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owl sees all Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 The dollar is coming under increasing pressure from a couple of sources, One is that certain countries are buying any gold that comes on the market. Saddam started selling his countries oil in Euros. As did the Libyan colonel. Iran is selling its oil to Russia and China and by-passing the petro-dollar, They are settling in gold. A war will deflect the attention away from the monstrous debt surrounding the dollar. At the moment the FED is printing millions and handing to Wall Street and US treasury for free. There are all sorts of shenanigans going on around the world and mostly the petro-dollar is at the centre, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAMHERE Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Geez, can't wait for the lower interest rates really do happen. How low can the exchange rate go? Already takes $250 more dollars to get that 65,000 baht per month than it did just four years ago. (35 to $1 back then) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lenny Jones Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 9 hours ago, connda said: That's only true if you plan to flip the assets for a profit. There is a lot to be said for having no debt and a roof over your head that you own out-right. Right there you're in better shape that 95% of any given population at the present time. When people get nervous they buy gold. Have you noticed the price of gold lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lenny Jones Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 9 hours ago, simon43 said: Many won't understand that joke! ???? Simon - radio ham for 40 years.... QRS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocddave Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, IAMHERE said: Geez, can't wait for the lower interest rates really do happen. How low can the exchange rate go? Already takes $250 more dollars to get that 65,000 baht per month than it did just four years ago. (35 to $1 back then) I just wish I could go back and send more money when I came here, oh well......thinking of not sending money for a while, maybe watch for a rebound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lenny Jones Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 7 hours ago, Jano22 said: That’s what happen when you let a clown run the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaRoadrunner Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 12 hours ago, Nowisee said: Tolerable if just doing a 25k baht ATM pull every few months. BUT, if you are unlucky enough to have to be taking 800k from USD account now for extension purposes... ouch. Put it in a FCD US$ account with one of the Thai banks. Can also be used for your visa application, even though it's in $. Brits can do the same with their weak £. (Though this being Thailand, I would not be surprised if it depends on the individual IO). Remember, a FCD account is not guaranteed by the Govt, so pick a substantial bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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